Ray,

There is an earlier thread 'Supply routes to Afghanistan' on:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=6386

Just scrolled through that the alternative routes to Pakistani ports, the two you refer to are limited in capacity and at one time permission existed for only non-lethal items. I am sceptical, despite official statements, that much is coming in from these two northern routes.

What would be interesting and maybe dangerous to know (not for OPSEC reasons) are: a) are non-lethal items now allowed to transit and b) can local, not imported overland POL supplies be provided?

There was contingency planning for adjusting, if not stopping, all UK medevac flights out of Afghanistan during the Icelandic volcanic ash eruption and severe restrictions on medical supplies inwards.

My question is can NATO / partners wage a war in Afghanistan, at present scales of kit and numbers, if Pakistani routes are not available?

I am less concerned about the impact on Pakistani itself.

You did ask:
What will be the effect on the leverage that Pakistan currently enjoys, the intensity of the Drone attacks, and importantly, on the political health of Pakistan as also the on the activities of the Pakistani Taliban.
The impact of the alternative routes on Pakistani leverage? Significant in the short-term and less as alternatives are used and numbers etc are cut. Drone attacks unaffected. Political health? None, for far wider reasons (another time on that subject). Pakistani Taliban activities? None, that war has very different factors and I am amazed the overland routes have not been attacked more.