Hi,

I am new to this forum. I'm from London (non military.) I have interviewed a few people for SWJ (Iraq diplomats, Jim Willbanks)

I don't think this is the end for Assad, but it could be the beginning of the end.

While Russia and China are likely to be neutral or supportive, Syria's recent new ally Turkey are publicly uncomfortable with the crackdowns.

Add to that a large number of Baathist resignations, reports of troops disobeying orders (and troop vs. troop firefights apparently) combined with divisions at the high level of Assads inner circle and the ruling Alawite Shias, he is definitely in trouble.

The problem is, the military seem so far extremely loyal- like Gaddafi he appears to have skilfully organised and deployed them to avoid a coup. (there were many coups in Syria from the 50's to the 60's. If I remember rightly Jeremy Bowen counted 12 in the 1950's alone.)

Likewise, I don't see how much more sanctions can hurt a regime that's suffering economically quite badly already.

While we can fund opposition (and the good news is there is a strong non salafi element, like in Libya and Egypt) there is not much we can do apart from sanction, fund, watch and hope.

Ironically, I think it is these secular tyrants who have facilitated the secular, facebook organised opposition to their rule.

It would be damn good to see Assad go down. The challenge is that the west rise to the Arab spring- like in Libya and Egypt, that will involve a distinct outreach campaign, to bravely say, "this is a clean slate. Let's drink a (non alcoholic) toast to the future." Now is not the time to fear Islam.

If we get this right, this could be the end of Arab Nationalism AND Al Qaida...


In the meantime, lets hope Iraq's border with Syria is kept as tightly shut as possible.