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Thread: The US & others working with Pakistan

  1. #221
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    I wrote this comment elsewhere, but it is more relevant here. What do people think?

    I would like to drop in here the possibility that Pax Americana may be about to end in that region(perhaps not yet likely, but definitely possible). This will sound weird to people (and there are billions of them) who do not think there was much pax and Americana was wholly bad in any case, but if that happens then our background assumptions may have to change rather drastically. I suspect that the transitional period will be very violent, very confusing and very unpleasant. Any thoughts?

    I wrote this on a liberal blog (http://www.3quarksdaily.com/3quarksd...an-policy.html) and the responses here may be different. I think on this blog, most people will not quibble with "pax Americana" but even here I see that very well informed and intelligent people tend to write as if A can change without a chain reaction of changes from B to Z. For example, I disagree with David's assertion that not much would change in Pakistani politics if there is an alternative route for supplies. I think that if there is an alternative route, Pakistan will either start cooperating more, which would mean that the ISI will stop patronizing Islamist forces and will even end up in confrontation with them, etc. etc. OR Pakistan will not cooperate and the US will be more willing to misbehave and eventually that will lead to the army dismissing the current pro-American civilian regime (weak as it is, it does have authority over some areas of the country) and installing a new civilian facade more suited to confrontation with the US. Either way, the status quo (which involves a very unstable and delicate balance between pro-western forces, pro-chinese and rabidly anti-Indian nationalists, Islamists and local pressure groups) will shift dramatically because it is extremely unstable as it is and cannot withstand an alteration in a big element like US-Pakistan relations.

  2. #222
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    Omar:

    I agree about the Pax Americana and would add the greatest beneficiary of that has been Pakistan. The situation as you say is going to change. We MAY be able affect it to the good if we abandon the supply line or creditably threaten to do so and thereby are able to strong arm the Pak Army/ISI into doing what it doesn't want it to do. That is the only chance we have to influence things to the good and it may not be a good chance.

    The other outcome of closing the supply line that you mentioned, the Pak Army/ISI bowing up would also happen if we pull out without playing our last card, the supply line. So we really don't have much to lose.

    Things are going to change one way or the other. We have a small chance of helping it go better if we do as you suggest.
    "We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene

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    Cyril Almeida discusses this topic: http://www.dawn.com/2011/04/29/mystery-or-madness.html

    I think he overestimates the Americans, underestimates ISI and the actual "endgame" could be worse than he imagines.

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    Default Funny

    The article linked by omarali50 had an advertisement come up that said "by Indian inspired jewelry and clothing"

  5. #225
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    Default New teams, Old problems by Hamid Hussain

    Hamid Hussain has been a SWJ contributor and this commentary reflects his perspective on Pakistan's relations with the USA, after a visit to Pakistan and the pending changes in both countries national security leadership.

    I cite one section:
    It is becoming clear that the Pakistan military has decided to jump head first in the ‘snake pit’ called Afghanistan.

    It is doubtful that they have done an adequate level of preparation. They are betting that Saudi money and Chinese diplomatic cover will be enough to shield Pakistan from the negative fallout from the next round of their reckless involvement in Afghanistan.
    Due to it's length the comment is attached.
    Attached Files Attached Files
    davidbfpo

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    Default Moderator adds

    Please note some posts here have been moved to the 'Osama bin Laden dead (for information & debate)' thread just created:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=13211

    Can comments on OBL's death and implications be placed on that thread please.
    davidbfpo

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    cross-posting from the SWJ blog.

    I know excessive psychologizing is not popular on this generally common-sense blog, but I would not be surprised if senior Pakistani officers are the ones feeling wounded because of this fuss.
    They may feel that it was "understood" that no one really really wants Osama and we can all be happy endlessly "looking for him". And that its the US that is violating unwritten "understandings" by being so fussy about such things all of a sudden.
    The notion that the US seriously wants the whole jihadi operation shut down would be even harder to accept for them. I can imagine them thinking that the US was perfectly happy with jihadi terrorists a few years ago and was having endless cups of tea with Kiyani sahib just a few months ago even as they knew where Hafiz Saeed and Maulana Azhar and Daood Ibrahim are being hosted. What changed? why the sudden public fuss? Is this how friends behave? Is there an Indian hand in all this? What do the Americans REALLY want? Is this a plot against our nukes as Shireen Mazari has long maintained? Were we fools to trust the US once again? Are they going to betray us again?
    I am not kidding.

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    Also see: http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2...fa_fact_wright

    The sense of deep betrayal in Pakistan is going to accelerate because people like Wright are now saying "everyone was sheltered by LET". If the US really did not like Lashkar, why didnt they stop aid 10 years ago? Its not possible that the US did not know that ISI completely controls LET and other such groups (and hosts Mullah Omar and Haqqani and Daood Ibrahim and others). So the US was OK with all this yesterday and is suddenly not OK today? why? I smell a Zionist plot and I smell another betrayal....

  9. #229
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    The deep sense of disquiet felt in Pakistan over the raid on Osama is summed up by the Pakistan Conflict Monitor.

    Pakistan Conflict Monitor

    The deep shock because of the raid has sparked rare criticism in Pakistan. There apparently is a feeling of having been let down by all concerned.

    Osama raid sparks rare criticism in Pakistan

    Notwithstanding the legality of the raid, possibly because of a trust deficit, the US had no option (from its standpoint) but to go for it.

    There appears to be a settling down of emotions and a state of status quo ante returning.

    Given the fact that the AQ and its derivatives are still active, can the US drawdown on its relationship with Pakistan?

    Given that Pakistan's economic state is not too healthy, so much so, that it requires Saudi assistance for its National Budget, can Pakistan overlook the financial benefit it accrues from the relationship with the US?

    And ,will the Pakistan Army be ready to lose the US aid, when, as the New Yorker article states that the main beneficiary is the Pakistan Army?

    China reaction has been favourable to Pakistan.

    Pakistan denies complicity

    Criticism of Pakistan intelligence is unfair

    In the second article, the Golbal Times however mentions - 'China, a heart-felt friend to Pakistan, has also suffered from terrorism in recent years. Its frontier provinces are occasionally disturbed by extremists from within Pakistan. '.

    The Pakistani anguish is most understandable.
    Last edited by Ray; 05-10-2011 at 08:41 AM.

  10. #230
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    Default The Double Game:The unintended consequences of US funding in Pakistan

    I admire Lawrence Wright's writings and this is as good a description of what has happened, although it seems to end abruptly:http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2...urrentPage=all
    davidbfpo

  11. #231
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    Default ISI Chief offered to resign

    Amidst this BBC report on the suicide attack on a Frontier Constabulary (FC) training base, where 80 were killed and 120 injured, is something else and worthy of attention:
    Friday's attack came hours before army chiefs appeared before parliament to explain their actions over Bin Laden's death.

    At the closed-door briefing, ISI chief Lieut-Gen Ahmed Shujaa Pasha is reported to have told MPs that he had offered his resignation after the Navy Seals raid, but had been turned down by the army chief.

    (Later)After Friday's parliamentary briefing, Pakistan's information minister said Lieut-Gen Pasha had told MPs he was ready to take responsibility for any criminal failing. "If any of our responsibility is determined and any gap identified, that our negligence was criminal negligence, and there was an intentional failure, then we are ready to face any consequences," said the minister, Firdous Ashiq Awan, citing the general.
    Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-13385597

    Leaving aside the offer to resign, that this was a PTT attack and other factors this attack illustrates the price some in Pakistan pay for their service. I just wonder how members of the FC now view the strategies followed by ISI, the army and Pakistan.
    davidbfpo

  12. #232
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    "Offered to resign" LOL. I am sorry, but this is ridiculous. "IF evidence is found of yadda yadda yadda"

    FC recruits are the sweetest and most hardworking and honest poor people in Pakistan (close relatives have served as officers in FC, so I am a bit sentimental, but what I mean is that poor people in many chronically poor communities have become accustomed to a rather thievish and dishonest relationship with "the man"...this was not typically true of very poor pakhtoons..whatever their other faults, they were upstanding and righteous people with a definite sense of honor) and they have been sorely tested by the two-faced policies of the establishment. What will they think? I dont know, maybe nothing very coherent. People think, for the most part, what they are told to think by their leaders of opinion. In this case, that message is very confused.

    The jihadi wing of the deep state probably regards them as unfortunate collateral damage. I dont think GHQ is losing too much sleep over dead poor people. An attack on islamabad, now that would be different and would lead to attempts to convince their old friends that this was no way to treat old comrades and they should be patient until the infidels leave, which blessed day is not too far off.
    I am not in a happy frame of mind.

  13. #233
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    Quote Originally Posted by omarali50 View Post
    ...they should be patient until the infidels leave, which blessed day is not too far off.
    This is preaching to the choir but the infidels won't be gone, they'll just be swapped out "India, you go in for NATO."
    "We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene

  14. #234
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    My own view is that when the infidels leave (and they may not be leaving, this is hypothetical) there will be no smooth "handover to India" but things will actually NOT go the way ISI imagines they will go either.
    1. China will pay for services rendered and not a penny more. GHQ's days of living high will not last. They will soon be regretting the "good old days" when Admiral Mullen used to pop over bearing gifts. Saudi and Bahraini mercenary deployments will not compensate either. It may be declining, but there is still no money like American money.
    2. Afghanistan will become an endless civil war.
    3. The Jihadis will soon tire of life in Afghanistan and the cities in Pakistan will beacon. Initially they will be offered up some hapless liberals who have failed to escape, but it wont be long before they will want the best spots in the defence housing societies. By then, the smart generals will have left for Dubai and Montana, but the dumb ones will find themselves converting to pure Islam under the barrel of a gun. It will not be pretty. India may or may not get sucked in by then but they would be foolish to step in prematurely. What for? to clean up America's mess? how much will they be paid for doing that?
    There is no happy ending if the infidels leave. But there is no smooth handover to india either because India is not ready and wont be for several years yet.
    Anyway, the infidels are probably not leaving anytime soon. I was just presenting what the establishment may be saying to their old friends who bomb them and hurt their feelings. In actual fact, the infidels wont leave soon, GHQ will writhe and wriggle and then, with maximum bad grace, will cough up some jihadis...just enough to keep things going. Its not going to last forever, but with luck, it will last a few more years. By then, who knows.

  15. #235
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    There are too many interests working in Afghanistan.

    1. Pakistan wants 'strategic depth' (technically a wrong term since 'strategic depth' does not qualify for Afghanistan).

    2. India does not want Pakistan in Afghanistan. It will block her (India's) access to CAR through Chahbahar.

    3. Russia wants to keep the Islamic influence as far as possible.

    4. The CAR does not want the Islamists since they are still in the mould of the Soviet mindset and the leaders are worried that they will get overthrown by the Born again Islamic wave.

    5. China is interested in the natural resources as also to be close to the Islamic fundamentalist homeland so as to neutralise the same before it reaches Xinjiang. The Global Times of China has reported that there has been Islamic forays into Xinjiang.

    6. Iran is interested to ensure that Shias are not swamped as also to prevent drugs coming into Iran and funding the secessionists in Iranian Baluch areas.

    Therefore, it is a holy mess.

    No infidel is going to leave in a hurry.

    And the US while playing it cool is also at the game, if this 'explosive' article is anything to go by.
    American Designs in Balochistan:http://www.thefaultlines.com/america...n-balochistan/

    All are aware of Raymond Davis and today there is an Urdu report in Pakistani Daily Express news story which states:
    A person Mathew Graig Bait was caught from Kala Chita mountains near ang.Fateh Jang.He was spying on sensitive installations.After inquiry it was found that he came to Pakistan on business visa,married to a Pakistani women and living in G-8.His car no is E-318 registered with Jacobabad.
    According to Tv news channel few days ago police arrested a American embassy staff member with 3 British nationals and American journalist of Indian origin near Kotli Sattian.They are taking the pictures of nuclear installations.Cameras and other equipment is recovered from them.but after intervention from government they were set free.
    From:http://express.com.pk/epaper/PoPupwi...&Date=20110515 and http://www.defence.pk/forums/pakista...ateh-jang.html

    The US action is copybook of taking the game into the adversary's territory and hurting his interests hard.

    So, no one is leaving.

    Each will work on till their own agendas are fulfilled!
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 05-15-2011 at 05:27 PM. Reason: Citation in quotes

  16. #236
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    Things are getting more confusing and beyond understanding.

    Stealth helicopters refuelled in Pakistan
    http://nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-n...d-in-Pakistan/

    ISI Chief Snubs Opposition Leader
    Published in The Express Tribune, May 15th, 2011
    http://www.defence.pk/forums/pakista...on-leader.html
    Last edited by Ray; 05-15-2011 at 05:33 PM.

  17. #237
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    Default Caution and speculation

    Ray,

    Having looked at the cited source for 'American Designs in Balochistan' I would not be too convinced of accuracy; the source has a clear stance on regional issues and is anti-war. Then relying on Turkmenistan reporting as the original source, "nuff said".

    The second post on 'Stealth helicopters refuelled in Pakistan' is more interesting, although the source is clearly a briefing maybe by the PAF.

    I say interesting as I've yet to see any reporting on the approach and exit from Abbottabad, regarding time, distance and refuelling. There was early speculation that the raid originated from a PAF base, now clearly unlikely as Jalalabad is cited widely. On one blogsite regarding OBL's burial at sea the author was unconvinced at the timing.

    Would the US helicopters have returned direct to Jalalabad and then transferred the body plus to an aircraft which flew to the USS Vinson offshore? I am wary that the helicopters would, even could have flown direct to the USS Vinson and without refuelling over / in Pakistani airspace.

    Now back to my armchair.
    davidbfpo

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    The Stealth Helicopter info is from a Pakistan Air Force (PAF) investigative commission formed on the orders of Air Chief Rao Qamar Suleman that is in the final stages of compiling its report of the investigation of the Abbottabad incident.

    As far as the details of the flying in and out, I am equally foxed, though the Blackhawks have auxiliary fuel tanks. These Blackhawks used are something new and so none knows the technical specifications.

    On Baluchistan, India has always been blamed. Apart from this, there are many sources (Pakistani) which blames Xe for their woes.

    The more one checks on Pakistan sources, be it the News or the fora, one gets totally confused and the Pakistanis themselves are confused as to what is the truth.

    In my opinion, though it is not important, the biggest scourge, as far as Pakistan is concerned, is the TTP who are ripping the innards of Pakistan. If they are controlled, then things will look up for Pakistan.

    From the various inputs from Pakistan, the good news is that they (Pakistanis ) are tiring of this confusion.

    Therefore, there is hope!
    Last edited by Ray; 05-15-2011 at 06:18 PM.

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    Most Pakistanis are indeed tiring of the confusion, but the confusers are still hard at work (and are apparently still getting paid). The point to note is that all these wild conspiracy theories and strange twists and turns are not randomly generated from below up. They are fed from above down, at least initially. I am not saying that all this will stop if the "above down" feeding now stops. A lot of this stuff becomes self-sustaining and (as Max Planck pointed out about physicists) once people have bought into one paradigm, you might have to wait till that generation dies off before the outdated ideas finally die off. But still, for practical purposes, it will make a huge difference if the feeding from above is stopped. There have been one or two hopeful hints recently (Kamran Khan, thought to be very close to GHQ, is a good example:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVa8B...ature=youtu.be) but other well established pro-army websites like paknationalists.com and rupeenews.com (apparently well funded and networked) are doubling down instead of folding. One gets the impression that the deep-state may itself be divided. Some are trying to clear up confusion, but others are absolutely convinced that there is no future without eternal enmity against India and once that assumption is accepted, then the good jihadis and good taliban follow like the cart follows the bullock and that in turn leads to the need to create maximum confusion, since confusion is our only hope of keeping manna flowing from the US while protecting our jihadi assets..
    Its not an easy job to clean the augean stables and the rivers have not been rerouted yet..

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