Bin Laden: after Abbottabad (merged thread)

[SWJ Blog]

Moderator's Note: Clearly this incident will resonate here and I thought it appropriate to have a a thread in this area 'Global Issues & Threats'. Fourteen threads have been merged here to create a collection for Bin Laden items after his demise @ Abbottabad. Renamed the thread too. (Ends).


Osama bin Laden Killed by U.S. Strike

Entry Excerpt:

Osama bin Laden Killed by U.S. Strike - ABC News

There is a SWC thread on the subject at: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=13211

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[carl]

There is a SWJ Blog item too, with the official statement made:http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/201...illed-by-us-s/

Omar:

Do you think the Pak Army/ISI finally decided to give up OBL? If so why?

[Dayuhan]

Either OBL was given up on purpose by the Pak Army, ISI, or factions thereof, or the US acquired and acted upon intel without their help, which is entirely possible. The official Pakistani reaction will be interesting. I imagine comment from both sides will be sanitized to some extent, likely a large extent... still interesting to see what emerges. It would be tough for the Pakistani government to admit that they passed on information that led to an American operation on Pakistani soil, so I suppose they'll have to pitch it as an independent US operation, whatever the truth of it is.

[omarali50]

The details will be really really interesting. If initial reports are true, then this was a secure location right next to the military academy. Does that mean they put him there because they thought no one would ever think they would do that? or does it mean they had nothing to do with putting him there? or (most likely?) "they" are split into different camps and the right hand does not know what the left is doing?
This reminds me of a famous battle of wits: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQNHBUqfLnM

Anyway, great news. Good work by a lot of people must have been involved. Well done.

[Dayuhan]

I can't see how we would have shared the details of our intel and decision to execute on a target of this significance, despite what is coming across the MSM regarding assistance from the Pakis.

How can they refute the spin through?

I also doubt that we'd share the intel, though assistance from the Pakis (or at least someone within their organizations) may (or may not) have been the source of the intel in the first place.

There's certainly a fair bit that won't be told, at least initially; still it will be interesting to see who says what, and what the reaction is on the streets in Pakistan.

[jcustis]

It will make for a great book, but the movie will be hosed up by Hollywood.

[davidbfpo]

Clearly this incident will resonate here and I thought it appropriate to have a a thread in this area 'Global Issues & Threats'. In a moment I will move some of the very recent posts to here and add a note to current threads for posts on the issue to be placed here.

[carl]

This is wonderful emotionally satisfying news and salutes to all involved in pulling it off, but I am going to make a very dark comment that I hope isn't true. Why did the Pak Army/ISI give up OBL now after all these years? We have never had the nerve to creditably threaten them or even strongly condemn them in the past. What changed? What I hope to hell didn't happen was we made a deal, they give us AQ and we give them Afghanistan.

[davidbfpo]

The BBC's comment on the raid:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-13257330

Details are emerging of how al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden was found and killed at a fortified compound on the outskirts of Abbottabad in north-west Pakistan...It is just 800 yards from the Pakistan Military Academy, an elite military training centre, which correspondents say is Pakistan's equivalent to Britain's Sandhurst military training academy...The compound lies within Abbottabad's military cantonment - it is likely the area would have had a constant and significant military presence and checkpoints.

(Later)BBC correspondents say US troops were probably operating out of a base used by US Marines in Tarbela Ghazi, an area close to Abbottabad.

Michael Scheueur was interviewed and stated US intelligence was assisted by the UK and Canada.

[Dayuhan]

This is wonderful emotionally satisfying news and salutes to all involved in pulling it off, but I am going to make a very dark comment that I hope isn't true. Why did the Pak Army/ISI give up OBL now after all these years? We have never had the nerve to creditably threaten them or even strongly condemn them in the past. What changed? What I hope to hell didn't happen was we made a deal, they give us AQ and we give them Afghanistan.

We don't know that OBL was given up by the Pak Army/ISI, and I'm not prepared to assume that he was. It's entirely possible that the US did it on their own.

<edit>

Also possible that individuals within Pak Army/ISI provided intel on their own, for their own purposes, without institutional intent.

It does leave the Pak Army in a somewhat embarrassing place, considering that he was hiding out literally in their backyard. Will be interesting to see what they have to say on that.

[Dayuhan]

What I hope to hell didn't happen was we made a deal, they give us AQ and we give them Afghanistan.

Would that really be such a bad deal? Not like we really want Afghanistan... in fact, short of HIV or rabies I can think of few things I'd want less. Without AQ, what reason have we to be there anyway?

Not that I have any reason to suppose such a deal was made, or that removing OBL will eliminate AQ, but if we really had the option of making a deal where we get out of Afghanistan in return for AQ's exclusion from Afghanistan and Pakistan, it might not be such a bad thing, assuming the other side of the deal could and would deliver (big assumption).

[Fuchs]

This is a great opportunity to declare victory and get out of the mess.

[SWJ Blog]

Bin Laden News Roundup (Update in Progress)

Entry Excerpt:

Al Qaeda

Obama Announces Death of Osama bin Laden - Voice of America
Bin Laden is Dead - New York Times
Bin Laden Killed, 'Justice Has Been Done' - Washington Post
U.S. Forces Kill Osama Bin Laden in Pakistan - BBC News
Osama Bin Laden Killed in Shootout, Obama Says - Reuters
Officials Provide Details on bin Laden Operation - Voice of America
Body Buried at Sea After Raid in Pakistan - New York Times
Detective Work on Courier Led to Breakthrough - New York Times
Bin Laden Was Found at Luxury Pakistan Compound - Reuters
Perhaps Largest Manhunt in U.S. History - Voice of America
Senior Official in Pakistan's ISI Confirms Bin Laden Killed - Reuters
The Most Wanted Face of Terrorism - New York Times
Death of Bin Laden Not Mean Demise of Al Qaeda - New York Times
Egypt's Al-Zawahri Likely to Succeed Bin Laden - Associated Press
Al Qaeda No.2 Zawahri Most Likely to Succeed Bin Laden - Reuters
Islamists: Bin Laden Death Will Not Mute Jihad Call - Reuters
Amid Cheers, a Message: ‘They Will Be Caught’ - New York Times
Afghans Fear West May See Death as the End - New York Times
Afghan Leader: Bin Laden Strike Is Blow to Terror - Associated Press
Afghan Leader Tells Taliban Not to Fight After Bin Laden's Death - Reuters
Joy Erupts on U.S. Streets With Killing of Bin Laden - Reuters
Bin Laden's Death Draws Cheers, Relief, Dismay - Associated Press
Israel: Bin Laden Killing Triumph for Democracies - Reuters
India Hails Bin Laden Death, More Needed to Fight Terrorism - Reuters
Vatican Says Bin Laden Will Have to Answer to God - Reuters
Muslim Brotherhood: U.S. Should Now Quit Iraq, Afghanistan - Reuters
Bin Laden's Death: Reaction in Quotes - BBC News
Obama’s Remarks on Bin Laden’s Killing - New York Times transcript
After Osama bin Laden... - New York Times opinion



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[LawVol]

While I do not believe that this makes any difference regarding the threat of AQ (real or imagined), I do agree with Fuchs that this provides a political opportunity to declare victory and go home. Once again, we can abandon Afghanistan if we so choose.

[Kiwigrunt]

They catch the number one dude on the most wanted list for ten years and then proceed to dump the cadaver in the ocean? I’m not one for conspiracy theories but this is IMO a bit odd.

[Fuchs]

It seems to minimise backlash by those who count, though.

[CWOT]

I asked these questions here on Small Wars in January. I think they are particularly relevant today, so interested to hear people's thoughts:

Here is a survey I posted and had some good participation on it, mostly from academics. I throw it up here as I'd like to get the perspective of those that have been deployed to AFG/IZ and other CT assignments. Here are the three questions I posted and would enjoy any and all thoughts on this topic.

Here's the poll:

Overall theme of the poll:
If Usama Bin Laden were killed in 2011, would it matter to the global jihadi movement?

Question #1:

What will be the chief consequence of Usama Bin Laden’s death to the global jihadi movement? (Only pick One!)

-Status Quo- No substantial change in AQ activity
-AQ Central directed plots against U.S. and its Allies decrease substantially
-AQAP becomes new AQ Central
-Some other AQ member in AF/PAK becomes leader of AQ Central
-AQ Central loses its chief sponsor, the Haqqani network
-AQ fundraising increases substantially
-AQ fundraising diminishes substantially
-Taliban more reluctant to make peace with Karzai
-AQ-inspired recruitment slows substantially
-AQ-inspired recruitment accelerates substantially
-AQ Central directed plots against U.S. and its Allies increase substantially
-Taliban pursue a peace settlement with Karzai
-AQ Central shifts focus to pursue guerilla warfare in Central Asia


Question #2:

What will be the chief consequence of UBL’s death for the U.S. and its Western allies? (Only pick One!)

Public pressure forces early withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan.
Public pressure forces a refocus on counterterrorism operations (Biden Plan).
Status Quo- No substantial change in U.S. and Western operations.


Question #3:

Would UBL’s death result in more or less AQ-inspired attacks over the next five years? (2011- 2016) (Only pick One!)

-More
-Less
-No Change in the pace of attacks.


Thanks,

Clint
www.selectedwisdom.com

[flagg]

So I'm having a look at the Google map for the location of where OBL was zapped in relation to local points of interest.

Pakistan Military Academy
Combined Military Hospital
Pakistan Military Training Grounds
Military housing and other military facilities all over the place

Admittedly I haven't read enough John Le Carre novels to come close to the understanding the complex intrigue and craziness that is Pakistan and it's internal/external political/military/intelligence soap opera.

But I keep going back to the same altered history anology:

Imagine it's 1955, and the Russians just found Hitler living in a somewhat larger than average Levittown house in West Point, New York living amongst a whole bunch of current and prior service soldiers.

How is it even POSSIBLE, or more importantly, SPINNABLE?

Pakistani intrigue is too thick and murky for me to even guess as to their involvement.....but if I had to guess: Pakistan "boots on the ground" would be OBL's Tuesday Poker Night and Kosher BBQ buddies, and "advance notice" was +/- 30 seconds to entry...Pakistani ISI media ops must be working late nights spinning this mess.

For once, it would be nice to hear something resembling the truth as to Pakistani culpability in the harboring/management of OBL.

How is this anything other than the US having "pants" Pakistan in front of the entire planet?

If it was a truly coordinated raid in partnership with Pakistan at some ludicrous price, how will that work when the truth, or some semblance of it, comes out?

How does pretending Pakistan doesn't have access/influence/control over OBL and being strung along by the Pakistanis for years play to the public if/when they find out?

Isn't pandering to Pakistan, who is holding OBL hostage to us, in order to avoid logistical/supply disruptions in a mission that originally focused on finding-fixing-finishing OBL/AQ a bit like an Excel circular reference error?

I am only an interested amateur.....but I'm thinking it's a perfect excuse for the current administration might capitalize on to not only exit stage left(and gain in the polls for 2012).....but to possibly shift allegiance and support more quickly/strongly away from Pakistan and towards India.

Probably not adding any value to the conversation, but just wanted to throw it out there.

[davidbfpo]

Clint,

Your survey is now even more topical and will you be able to view the responses seperately: pre-OBL death and post-OBL death?

General comments

KoW have a good commentary and commend the evolving Wikipedia story too, respectively: http://kingsofwar.org.uk/2011/05/bin...l-an-ideology/ and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Osama_bin_Laden

[Tukhachevskii]

They catch the number one dude on the most wanted list for ten years and then proceed to dump the cadaver in the ocean? I’m not one for conspiracy theories but this is IMO a bit odd.

Struck me as odd too KG. Islamic law forbids burial at sea in all but the most extreme circumstances; i.e., death at sea during naval combat and even then the utmost is done to retreive the body to bury it on land. That'll be likely to offend "certain types" more than OBL's "martydrom" (which is what they all want anyway so won't act as a deterrent as much as the knowledge that they can be killed, captured or destroyed no matter where they hide).

Interestingly, I was channel hopping to see what different news media channels made of the effort and the Pakistani ARY stated that OBL was found with the assistance of local police (BS if ever I heard it) whilst India's Star News had no qualms about showing OBL's dead face whilst "bigging up" the US SEALS! OTOH Iran has said that now he's dead the US doesn't need to be in Afghanistan. Here, here (not that I'd normally agree with the Iranians). Let's get the hell out (now that we've been given an out).

Congrats to all involved though. Job Done.