A really bad day for bin Laden – and for Pakistan
Entry Excerpt:
The killing of Osama bin Laden is a satisfying triumph for Americans and the U.S. government. It would have been even more satisfying had it occurred in the weeks and months after the September 2001 attacks. But the fact that it took a decade to finally kill bin Laden should be warning to any who doubt the long memories and persistence of the U.S. government’s counterterrorism forces. They didn’t forget and they never stopped working on the problem.
The Joint Special Operations Command, presumably the command responsible for the mission, should get credit for demonstrating its ability to successfully raid targets virtually anywhere in the world. The CIA also gets credit for patiently developing the required intelligence and for reminding everyone of the value of battlefield captures, interrogations, and human intelligence.
Finally, President Barack Obama deserves great credit for taking the risk of ordering this raid. He likely knew that the past record of such high-visibility raids was not good and that much more can go wrong with these operations than go right. He must also have known that another Desert One fiasco could have been disastrous on several levels.
Most notable was Obama’s willingness to shatter America’s relationship with Pakistan in order to take a gamble on getting bin Laden. For this raid is a black day for Pakistan and its relationship with the United States. As the White House background briefing on the raid makes clear, the United States kept the raid completely concealed from the Pakistani government. Combine this with the fact that bin Laden was found in a highly protected compound in a wealthy town near Pakistan’s capital, and a stone’s throw from a Pakistani military academy. Americans will be right to conclude that Pakistan was bin Laden’s long-time friend and not America’s. What little support Pakistan still enjoys in Washington will now likely melt away. Pakistan will have to look to China, its last friend, for the support it will need to survive.
Although the struggle against terrorism will go on, the death of bin Laden will bring a sense of finality for most in the American electorate. Combine that with more evidence of Pakistan’s duplicity, the evident breakdown in relations between the United States and Pakistan, and what will likely be the most bloody year for U.S. soldiers fighting in Afghanistan. The result could be a final collapse of public support for the war in Afghanistan. That probably won’t bother President Obama too much and will bolster his argument to accelerate the U.S. withdrawal from that war later this year.
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"On the plains and mountains of the American West, the United States Army had once learned everything there was to learn about hit-and-run tactics and guerrilla warfare."
T.R. Fehrenbach This Kind of War
Thank God we avoided the strategic disaster of running last night's op as a capture operation.
I recall an old Son Tay raider sharing his experience with my Q-Course class, on coming face to face with an NVA soldier:
"He held up both hands in front of him, and I thought he was asking for Ammo, so I gave him 20 rounds."
Again, thankfully the occupants of this compound needed ammo as well.
Robert C. Jones
Intellectus Supra Scientia
(Understanding is more important than Knowledge)
"The modern COIN mindset is when one arrogantly goes to some foreign land and attempts to make those who live there a lesser version of one's self. The FID mindset is when one humbly goes to some foreign land and seeks first to understand, and then to help in some small way for those who live there to be the best version of their own self." Colonel Robert C. Jones, US Army Special Forces (Retired)
Robert Haddick has a commentary 'A really bad day for bin Laden – and for Pakistan' on:http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/201...for-bin-laden/
SWJ Blog has a press collection on:http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/201...oundup-update/
davidbfpo
They got OBL
No collateral damage of civilians in surrounding areas
No casualties
Mission accomplished.
Superb special forces work Americans can justifiably be proud of.
The place where he was killed is over 100 miles from the Pak/Afghan border if I read my National Geographic computer map correctly. The Pakistan Air Force noticed what was going on and did nothing. In my opinion, completely inexpert, it is not possible we did it on our own.
I also think this is the prelude to bugging out on Afghanistan and the Afghans. I know people don't like the phrase "bug out" for its' emotional and moral connotation and I hope it doesn't happen. Time will tell. But I use the phrase intentionally and expect very strong reaction to it; regardless, that is what it would be if it happens. Things may, probably, will be worse for the poor Afghans than anytime in modern history. I hope not but fear so.
"We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene
Quite. One of my concerns with the law enforcement spin that has been put on so many military operations is that someone would want to "arrest" OBL and bring him back in cuffs (stuff him in the back seat of a squad car for good measure, perhaps) and kick off the whole OJ trial syndrome. We're already seeing enough of this in other areas.
"On the plains and mountains of the American West, the United States Army had once learned everything there was to learn about hit-and-run tactics and guerrilla warfare."
T.R. Fehrenbach This Kind of War
Scrolling through a variety of news reports I am not convinced much of the reporting and commentary is well-based.
In support I cite Rob Baer on the BBC's Live column stated:For good, political reasons the USA will congratulate itself and I do not diminish the respect due to those who undertook the mission.Former CIA field officer Bob Baer tells the BBC World Service the intelligence sources that led to the operation are unlikely to be revealed. 'Intelligence agencies and the military will simply put out disinformation to protect the real sources, which could have been anything from intercepts to the Pakistani government itself'.
As regards OBL's death I expect Muslim opinion will focus upon until satisfactory proof is provided - notably a photo - and the DNA statement (just) helps. I am happy to await any such footage.
The manner of his burial is potentially controversial, again until fully explained soon IMHO.
I would speculate that OBL's body was removed and buried at sea following a plan when KSA reportedly refused permission for it's return.
All that aside Ahmed Rashid is worth reading:Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-13257441The killing of al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden is a huge blow to the organisation but as guest columnist Ahmed Rashid reports, its decentralised nature means it has the potential to carry out attacks on any number of targets.
davidbfpo
cross-posting from the SWJ blog.
I think its a good day for Pakistan too, but in a "long-term" kind of way.
comments on our blog are at http://www.brownpundits.com/2011/05/.../#comment-7642 (this link completes the circle, since i linked SWJ there).
One of our bloggers has a post saying the Pakistani commandos were much more heavily involved than advertised (http://www.brownpundits.com/2011/05/...yed/#more-2139). I find that plausible. But it seems that in their public pronouncements they have chosen the humiliation of this being a US operation over the dangers of being seen as loyal partners of the infidels? Or is that just more smoke and mirrors?
Whatever the details (and amateurs like me will probably never know), the bottom line is that the Pakistani establishnment will have to gradually get rid of all their old jihadi friends...not just the "bad" ones. The infidel world won't let them keep the "good jihadis" either.
One possibility is that GHQ knows this, but feels insecure and needs time to work things out with the rank and file. The other is that they don't fully know this yet and will only learn over time and with great reluctance. Either way, the end state will be the same. The Pakistani establishment will have to give up its jihadi proxies...even the "good jihadis"; even the ones who only target Hindoos and are not thought to be a major issue for the big infidels with the big bombs. The reason? the jihadis have the bad habit of not keeping the milk and meat apart very strictly. The good ones keep hobnobbing with the bad ones and even the most sympathetic infidels (the Chinese, Anatol Lieven) are uncomfortable with that aspect of jihadi behavior.....one way or the other (one way being more painful than the other) the deep state will have to pull away from all of them. Though they may or may not know it yet..and may go through years of very gradual backpedaling before they get to the promised land.
We won't really have a good picture of what happened for some time (if ever), but that has never stopped the talking heads....
OBL is a good public face, and killing him does do some damage, but as we should remember from our experience with other terrorist groups such operations rarely stop them in their tracks. All one needs to do is look at the longevity of some of the European terror groups (Red Brigades, RAF, various Greek organizations, and so on), along with the various branches and incarnations of the IRA. Or, to draw a more unusual parallel, the U.S. domestic experience. We've had a handful of presidents assassinated, and at least two of them were very charismatic leaders (Lincoln and Kennedy), but that didn't bring the system crashing down (and in the case of Lincoln the potential was certainly there).
No, this is a victory to be sure, but it's not necessarily the end of anything. A change, certainly, and possibly a major blow to at least some parts of AQ.
And the KSA probably made a wise move in rejecting OBL's body (at least from their perspective). Any physical grave would almost immediately become a draw for extremists and those on the fringes of extremism.
"On the plains and mountains of the American West, the United States Army had once learned everything there was to learn about hit-and-run tactics and guerrilla warfare."
T.R. Fehrenbach This Kind of War
Two things:
1. My Wag-The-Dog sense is going off.
2. The fact that so many (perhaps hyperbole, some at least) here seem to be so excited to have an excuse to declare mission accomplished and get out may give motive to the possible fabrication of the story.
Not saying that I believe that the story is fabricated, but there are far too many facile elements to the story to swallow right now. Unfortunately, the administration decided to do the one thing that would best keep the conspiracies from spiraling by dumping the body in the sea.
Personally, I'm interested in the compound.
Who owns the land? Who funded the construction? The answers to those questions could be very problematic for Pakistan.
Supporting "time-limited, scope limited military actions" for 20 years.
Punditry, sorry an ICSR Insight:http://icsr.info/blog/ICSR-Insight--...-Ladens-Death-
Alas the Insight is distracted by other issues, but I am sure a SWC reader will soon decide what has value.
davidbfpo
BBC has some initial comments on this here. It's all pretty basic, of course, but one source in the BBC piece claims that locals called it the "Waziristan Mansion".
"On the plains and mountains of the American West, the United States Army had once learned everything there was to learn about hit-and-run tactics and guerrilla warfare."
T.R. Fehrenbach This Kind of War
Entropy askedThere is a possible answer, today, from the BBC's enquiries:Secondly the compound was within the cantonment area, my understanding is that does not mean owned or controlled, rather it is a descriptive term and implies it is part of the wider military residential area. An area that may have limited access and military monitored exit/entry points.One local resident told the BBC Urdu service that the house had been built by a Pashtun man about 10 or 12 years ago and he said that none of the locals were aware of who was really living there. According to one local journalist, the house was known in the area as Waziristani Haveli - or Waziristan Mansion.
The same BBC report refers to:Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-13257330..it lies well within Abbottabad's military cantonment - it is likely the area would have had a constant and significant military presence and checkpoints....This house was in a residential district of Abbottabad's suburbs called Bilal Town and known to be home to a number of retired military officers from the area.
davidbfpo
I searched in vain for a long ago post on fugitives and my view for sometime that OBL was not in a cave, nor a mountain valley in NWFP, but a walled compound in a Pakistani city. A compound that reduces external oversight to the minimum, high walls is one way, but in Pakistan a common design feature when affordable. With covering, vines and awnings to reduce overhead / oblique observation. Yes, never look up. Following the advice of an Australian colleague with no electronic signature too; I notice the one BBC photo shows a satellite dish.
'Hiding in plain sight' is a saying from fugitive hunting and I suppose being near a military garrison supports that.
There are tens of thousands of compounds fitting those criteria across Pakistan's urban areas.
Addition: BBC Live feed has this:Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-123076982057: Ebrar from London, writes: "Most of the rich people in Abottabad have high walls and barbed wires around their house. I had land in Abottabad with walls and barbed wire, so no one can jump in and play cricket or use it. Abottabad is a military garrison town, everyone lives near it. Military are everywhere.
Last edited by davidbfpo; 05-02-2011 at 08:06 PM. Reason: Addition with link
davidbfpo
That's interesting stuff David, thanks. Hard to believe OBL could exist there for so long without inside assistance of some kind from the Pakistan military or ISI.
Supporting "time-limited, scope limited military actions" for 20 years.
While I think it is certainly possible that Pakistani Army and/or ISI elements knew where he was, I think it is equally likely that they didn't. UBL seems to have gone to great lengths to limit the possibility of leaks (no landline or internet, controlled access, purpose-built villa with few windows, high walls, use of only a few trusted couriers, etc.) Why compromise all that with the risk that someone in the Army or ISI might get tempted by that $25m reward and provide a tip-off?
I'm not sure that 800m from a military academy is necessarily a more difficult place to hide out than any other urban area.
They mostly come at night. Mostly.
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