Crowdsourcing on AQ and Analysis (new title)

[CWOT]

Every youngster with a "plan" will move forward now that the calming/restraining influence has been lifted. In other words the wheels come off until the internal power struggle normalizes for AQ

Yes, in the immediate aftermath, chaos will breed some unfocused violence. My guess is there will be an initial spike in weak random attacks by wannabe's or affiliates trying to make their mark. But, unless AQAP can pull off a big attack in the next year or so, I think there will be a general decline over the next 2-5 years.

I put a question in the last week's poll essentially asking, when will upstart terror groups cease to re-brand as AQ affiliates? I think this is when we will know we have won against AQ's social movement.

[M-A Lagrange]

AQMI seems to be a good model to look to what will happen to AQ after UBL death as it's more or less an offshoot of the algerian islamist terror group after their defeat.

This is just a personal opinion and guess.

[Valin]

What will terrorism be post Bin Laden?

S.S.D.D.

(Same Stuff Different Day)

[CWOT]

S.S.D.D.

Really, I think things will be different. I think the biggest changes will be in recruitment and money for AQ. Still wading through it all, but I definitely think things will be different.

[CWOT]

Thanks to all those at Small Wars Journal that voted on this poll. I've had a great response rate and will begin compiling in a couple days.

For those that still want to vote on:
"What will terrorism be post Bin Laden?"
This link will be active for about 72 more hours.

https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/aqafterbinladen

[CWOT]

Thanks for the great response Small Wars. I'll close polling in 24 hours and am still taking any and all votes. Thanks to everyone that participated and I'll post a note here when I get the data aggregated.