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Thread: Assessing Al-Qaeda (merged thread)

  1. #101
    Council Member J Wolfsberger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jmm99 View Post
    I'd hope that the above is useful for educational, not argumentative, purposes.
    It is.

    However, both AG and MB seek dramatic ("revolution arty") change in the Moslem world. Specifically, a return to a pure, Islamic form of ordering society, ala Qutb and Salafism. In revolutionary theory, there is usually an open, political, "peaceful" organization, in this case MB, and a covert, "military," violent organization, in this case AQ. The two are almost always publicly disapproving of each other for disinformation purposes.

    Similar to your comments, mine are for discussion, not argumentative, purposes.
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  2. #102
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    Default I don't have the numbers,

    but maybe someone else has them (with sources), and that is an estimate of adherents to "ala Qutb and Salafism" among Muslims. Also MB adherents among its various branches. Then we could have some fact-based discussion - I know, I'm no fun.

    This stuff can get pretty esoteric as in this SWJ publication, Jai Singh and John David Perry, Ayman Al-Zawahiri’s Citations of the Qur’an: A Descriptive Study of Selected Works (2010) (pdf pp.12-14):

    The most cited chapters were at Tawba (Surah 9, 39 citations), aal-e-Imran (Surah 3, 32 citations), an Nisa (Surah 4, 31 citations), al Maeda (Surah 5, 26 citations), al Anfal (Surah 8, 23 citations), al Baqara (Surah 2, 16 citations), al Ahzab (Surah 33, 16) and Muhammad (Surah 47, 12 citations). Taken together, these eight chapters provided a substantial portion of all chapters cited (69.1%).
    ....
    The distribution of ayat cited within each surah was then considered (using all 428 ayat). The most cited surahs were all Medinan era with al Baqara (Surah 2, 18 citations), Aal-E-Imran (Surah 3, 58 citations), an Nisa (Surah 4, 42 citations), al Maeda (Surah 5, 43 citations), al Anfal (Surah 8, 31 citations), at Tawba (Surah 9, 58 citations), al Ahzab (Surah 33, 35 citations) and Muhammad (Surah 47, 21 citations). Together, these citations represented 71.5% (306 of 428) of all citations noted. The distribution of ayat cited in each of these surahs is shown in Figures 1.
    .....
    The three most oft-cited ayat were Surah at Tawba (9:38, 13 citations) and Surah al Maeda (5: 51, 10 citations; 5:52, 9 citations). Neither of the “sword verses,” 9:5 and 9:29, were cited by al Zawahiri.
    I found the last sentence interesting - since he has no aversion to the sword.

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  3. #103
    Council Member tequila's Avatar
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    I agree with one thing: both al-Qaeda and the MB in its various incarnations have the same broad goal - an Islamist state that governs principally by sharia law. AQ probably envisions this state covering all the old domains of the Umayyad caliphate + Central Asia and East Africa, while the MB's mental map doesn't go quite so far, but one should never, ever forget that the MB are Islamists.

    I very much doubt, however, that the MB/AQ are like Sinn Fein/PIRA. More like the Communist Party of India (Marxist), which governed West Bengal and Kerala for decades, and the Red Army Faction. Both fly the Communist flag, both probably envision a state governed by Communist principles - but one participates in government more or less peacefully, while the other principally enjoys bombing people and issuing communiques - and neither in communication or control of the other.

  4. #104
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    I have some serious doubts about some of the propositions being advanced here.

    First, the extent to which nationalist insurgents turn to AQ for support is debatable, and largely unsupported. What support has AQ actually provided to these groups? In many cases AQ is the one receiving recruits and financial support from nations where we assume nationalist insurgency. This relationship is a lot more complex than "AQ rides to the rescue as champion of the populace". While AQ has very successfully exploited regional resentment to western intervention, its efforts to muster revolution against local regimes have fallen pretty flat. There's little to suggest that anyone, anywhere has adopted AQ as their champion against their own government.
    AQ's regional efforts falter because AQ has historically been a gang with a typically provincial gangster set of underbosses that could never see past their virulent Salafism to get along with more than the Deobandis (for the most part). A combination a soft-spoken, charismatic figurehead and bold operations mutes this on the international stage, but in the nuts and bolts of it you're still dealing with a core of self-described revolutionaries who'd rather go around calling other Muslims infidels and killing them for it than actually getting stuff done.

    Good news, a lot of these guys are dead or otherwise out of the picture. The bad news, the new blood is a lot more diverse than it used to be. Al-Faisal accuses al-Awlaki of disbelief for calling for stricter rules on when Muslims can call other Muslims infidels. He wants him dead for it. Yet it is Al-Awlaki's star that is ascendant.
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  5. #105
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    Default Robert,

    Perhaps, a response to your 5-points in the Fri-Sun period. We in the nether regions have to learn patience , as we await The Cleaving Asunder (text) and The Resurrection (text) - perhaps some commonality, perhaps not.

    Sincerely,

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    Last edited by jmm99; 05-04-2011 at 01:24 AM.

  6. #106
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    I'm reading this and hearing one of Sasha Cohen's voices, probably a Borat variant.

    In a Youtube video uploaded by the imam he said: "The western dogs are rejoicing after killing one of our Islamic lions. From Al-Aqsa Mosque, where the future caliphate will originate with the help of God, we say to them – the dogs will not rejoice too much for killing the lions. The dogs will remain dogs and the lion, even if he is dead, will remain a lion."

    The imam then verbally attacked US President Barack Obama saying: "You personally instructed to kill Muslims. You should know that soon you'll hang together with Bush Junior."
    http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7...064183,00.html
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  7. #107
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    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    I think not, just a realistic decision that arrests had to be made, even if others not under control. .
    You don't think there's a possibility that the Germans, who were working on these guys for awhile, might have gotten a "wink-wink, nudge-nudge, you might want to get them soon" suggestion?

    It'd make sense to roll up any easily captured, potential counterattackers before you do something that's going to be their trigger.
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  8. #108
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    Default Cumbria & Germany

    AdamG,

    The five men arrested near a UK nuclear site have been released without charge, albeit slipping from the front page:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-13284968

    As for the arrests pre-UBL demise I've seen no update. My reading of the German explanation was that the men had passed the danger point in a CT investigation, so no need for any external "nudge". Let's see what happens at court.
    davidbfpo

  9. #109
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    WRT 'ze Germans', a back-channel hint shouldn't ever come out in a courtroom.

    WRT to the five Bangladeshi's, good call on your part : so (predictably), we see post-OBL hypersensitivity on the part of security personnel.

    *
    New stuff, also related -
    The Saudi Interior Ministry said today that a senior al Qaeda member on Riyadh's most-wanted list named Khaled al-Qahtani called from abroad and turned himself in.

    "Interior Ministry's spokesman Maj. Gen. Mansour Al-Turki said in a statement Wednesday that Khaled Hathal Abdullah al-Atifi al-Qahtani contacted the security authorities from an undisclosed country and expressed his wish to come home," the Associated Press reports.
    http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_theenv...di-arabia-says
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  10. #110
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    ADEN: A leader of al Qaeda’s branch in restive southern Yemen on Wednesday vowed revenge for the US killing of the worldwide network’s founder Osama bin Laden.

    “We will take revenge for the death of our Sheikh Osama bin Laden and we will prove this to the enemies of God,” he told AFP, contacted by telephone from Yemen’s southern province of Abyan, an al Qaeda stronghold.

    “They will see what they haven’t expected … We are preparing a plan to continue jihad in the coming period,” said the al Qaeda leader, requesting anonymity for “security reasons.”
    Uh huh. Ok, tough guys....

    ADEN, May 5 (Reuters) - Two mid-level al Qaeda leaders were killed in Yemen on Thursday in a remote province where al Qaeda is active, the news service of the Yemeni defence ministry said, and residents said they saw a drone in the air at the time.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/0...ec3_lnk3|60614
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  11. #111
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    Default Al-Qaida and the Arab spring: after bin Laden

    Paul Rogers writes a commentary, summarised as:
    The death of the al-Qaida leader is a symbolic moment. But far more important is that the future of his movement - and much else besides - is closely tied to the success or failure of the Arab risings.
    Near the end:
    The hope within al-Qaida is that the aspirations embodied in the Arab spring are dashed, and that it can benefit from the ensuing deep disillusion..... After the failure of democratic and non-violent protest, they will work strenuously to embed a core idea - that the only path to renewal is Islamist and it must be won by violence.
    Clearly there is an overlap here with Bob's World's writings.

    Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-ro...fter-bin-laden
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  12. #112
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    AQ without bin Laden is still AQ. AQ without Western support to the sustainment of oppressive regimes across the Middle East is just noise.

    The death of bin Laden does, however, provide a transition point.

    1. AQ: We don't know if UBL has been a moderating or radicalizing force on the nature of AQ's operations in recent years. Nor do we know who will step up and take charge and what their focus will be. A ramp up in operations are far less likely to be revenge for the killing of UBL (though I am sure the new boss will paint it as such to motivate the operators he recruits for the missions, and in his PSYOP to the West); but more because that is how the new boss sees the road to success.

    2. The West. Perhaps we can finally set the crack pipe down, step back, and form some clear thoughts on what is really challenging us and how to best address those challenges. Organizations like AQ and Hezbollah, etc threaten us, but are not a threat to us. There is a big difference, and we need to define and respond to that difference. I would recommend something along the lines of:

    A. Immediate reduction of the priority, and following reduction of effort, in AFPAK. Shift to a ME of championing reconciliation of the revolutionary issues between the Taliban government in exile and the sitting Northern Alliance government to form a new government for ALL Afghans under a new Constitution designed to create trust where none exists, and preserve rights that are largely unprotected at all levels (regional, ethnic, tribal, individual).

    B. Elevate a program designed to get in front of the wave of Arab Spring as the new priority. Setting clear limits for governments and populaces in what types of activities will draw interventions and what will not. Conducting a full range of high-level summits, diplomatic engagement, etc aimed at EVOLUTION of government and re-framed relationships between governments that are aimed at preventing revolution and also breaking the linkage of blame that AQ leverages to convince nationalist insurgents to join their team for international operations and terror attacks. (This in turn will greatly reduce the amount of "homegrown" radicalization).

    C. Conduct a MAJOR re-think on Capacity Building (are we merely helping the oppressors to oppress even better?) and Development (are we trying to bribe populaces to submit to oppression?). We can do better. Such engagement must be re-purposed and narrowly tailored to build the right type of capacity that deters interstate conflicts; and the right type of development that fosters greater legitimacy, justice, equity and hope of a populace in their OWN government. Budgets for both can be greatly reduced, and troops required as well.

    D. Lastly, we really need to move "Containment" to the bench and a supporting role and develop a grand strategy construct better designed for the emerging world. Sustaining the status quo through expensive control measures is not the best way forward. At the same time, open our eyes to emerging state threats. The US window or bubble of relative hegemony over other states may well be over already. Frozen conflicts and issues of geopolitics are melting faster than the Arctic ice cap, and are far more dangerous to our future. These issues will begin to move soon, new alliances will form, and states will clash. Is our military prepared for that?? We need to get that way. Fast.
    Last edited by Bob's World; 05-07-2011 at 01:00 PM.
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  13. #113
    Council Member Fuchs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bob's World View Post
    C. Conduct a MAJOR re-think on Capacity Building (are we merely helping the oppressors to oppress even better?)
    This has been my critique on many COIN practices for a while...it's dangerous to us, too!

  14. #114
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    Default AQAP likes aviation, keep the guard up

    I'm sure after the underwear bomber attack and another attack I've posted that we are lucky AQ seem to have preference for attacking aviation.

    In a short analysis an open source terrorism analyst, Raffaello Pantucci, refers to:
    But for terrorists the optimal target will continue to be aircraft in transit. The problem from a terrorist’s perspective is that a bomb at an airport is very similar to a bomb in any other public place, except the security is tighter ..... Consequently, it can seem easier to simply deposit a device on a public transport system where security will be far less. Furthermore, it lacks the drama of an attack on an international flight.

    As Brian Michael Jenkins put it in 1974, “terrorism is theater” and an airplane full of people traveling between two developed economies remains the only sure way to guarantee a large media splash, dramatic economic damage and intense attention for your cause. Given AQAP’s continuing fixation with aviation, security in the air will continue to be a major headache in the years to come.
    Link:http://raffaellopantucci.com/2011/05...g-at-aviation/

    I do wonder what we would do if AQ or AQAP decided on an alternative target set, which fulfilled:
    ..a large media splash, dramatic economic damage and intense attention for your cause.
    A number of targets come to mind: mass transit, a few parts of critical national infrastructure (CNI) and "theatre" at iconic targets.
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  15. #115
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bob's World View Post
    Point One: (And Dayuhan always twists this one and throws it back at me, so I have apparently never been clear) Our principle is to allow people to live and govern by their principles. When we enable a single strongman to govern such populaces with impunity WE do not live by our principles, and men so corrupted with wealth and power soon do not govern by the principles, ways and means acceptable to the populaces they are supposed to serve.
    I'm not sure how I "twist" this; it seems to me that I respond to the words I read.

    I'm not entirely sure that it's appropriate for the US to be thinking of how to "allow people to live and govern" in any event, assuming the people in question are not Americans.

    I'd also have to point out, as many times before, that you're inclined to overstate the extent to which the US "enables" governments to govern as they do. That proposition suggests that these governments depend on us (and thus that we have leverage over them) and that they would not be able to govern as they do without our enabling actions. This is often not the case at all: many of these governments would govern as they do no matter what we say or do, and do not rely on our help to govern as they do. Assuming you have influence that you do not actually have is always dangerous. It's necessary to clearly and realistically assess the extent to which we enable in any given case.

    There's also a tendency in your posts to assume a unitary populace with a clear consensus on how it wishes to be governed. I know you always say this is not the case, but witness the following:

    men so corrupted with wealth and power soon do not govern by the principles, ways and means acceptable to the populaces they are supposed to serve.
    it implies that these people are being governed as they desire to be governed.
    we do need to stop granting unconditional support to individual leaders and regimes while ignoring how they are not treating their populace within the norms of their own culture. We need to become more attuned to how the people feel about their government
    The main effort must be the relationship between the populaces as a whole and their own governments.
    All of these suggest a coherent "the populace" with a consistent view of what sort of governance they desire. In many places at many times no such coherent populace exists. American observers, alas, are likeley to listen to the voices that call for the sort of government Americans like and assume that they speak for "the populace", even when they don't. In many of the places we deal with we have no clear idea of what "the populace" actually wants, and in many cases the populaces in question are in deep and even violent disagreement over what sort of government they want. Insurgencies aren't always about "the people" fighting "the government". Often it's about one part of "the people" fighting another part of "the people". If one part gets control of the government they call the other part "insurgents"; if the "insurgents" win they call the others "insurgents". The assumption of "populace vs government" is simplistic and often simply wrong. We may decide that the part of the populace that opposes the government is "the people" - especially when we find the government distasteful - but there's often a substantial part of "the people" that's not part of what we call "the people".

    Quote Originally Posted by Bob's World View Post
    I have always been adamant that we need to stand for Self-Determination (another principle that we loudly profess, but then tend to subjugate to newer values, such as the specific form of governance found in "Democracy." The fact is that Self-Determination is the ultimate form of democracy, regardless of what form of government adopted, as it implies that these people are being governed as they desire to be governed.
    Self determination sounds a lovely thing, but the process by which any given self determines what they want is often contentious and often violent. We shouldn't pretend that self-determination equals peace, because in a society where different groups have different ideas of how governance should be conducted, it's likely to be the opposite. A phenomenon we often see in relatively prosperous societies with totalitarian governments (Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, China) is that people in the middle class often support the government, not because they approve of it but because they fear that trying to change it would unleash a chaos of competing factions that would directly threaten their security. As long as they provide prosperity, security, and stability, these governments are likely to enjoy a lot more support among the quiet bulk of the citizenry than you seem willing to admit.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bob's World View Post
    we do need to stop granting unconditional support to individual leaders and regimes while ignoring how they are not treating their populace within the norms of their own culture. We need to become more attuned to how the people feel about their government and not get into positions were we are reasonably perceived as the obstacle to self-determination and the enabler of impunity.
    Are we in fact "granting unconditional support" to any leaders in this position? Where?

    How do we go about assessing the norms of other cultures, and how do we assess "how the people feel about their government" in places where different groups of people have very different feelings about their governments? Again, we have to be very wary of the American tendency to assume that those whose opinions of their government align with ours necessarily represent "the people", or the tendency to assume that the people who make the most noise, or blow things up, represent "the people".

    Quote Originally Posted by Bob's World View Post
    On my third point, when I say "compete" with AQ, that is a competition for influence with, and the trust of, the people of every nation. Most importantly for this mission are those that are in high levels of suppressed insurgency that AQ is targeting so aggressively to leverage that energy for their own ends. Those people deserve a new champion that is not so committed to extreme versions of their own religion, or extreme tactics for influencing governments.
    I don't know of any populace, anywhere, that has ever considered AQ their champion against their own government. Do we need to supplant AQ in a role that they do not even hold?

    I think your estimate of AQ's drivers is dangerously focused on one track. It's not just driven by "suppressed insurgency". That's not by any means the only factor involved.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bob's World View Post
    The main effort must be the relationship between the populaces as a whole and their own governments.
    Again, the populace isn't always a whole... and the populace is likely to have no desire at all to see America interfering in the relationships between Middle Eastern populaces and their governments. That kind of interference is going to be perceived as self-interested meddling no matter what the intention, and opposition to foreign meddling is one of AQ's most potent narratives. I think you're proposing an interventionist position in a place that's very tired of intervention, and that it could very easily blow up in our faces despite the best of intentions.

    [QUOTE=Bob's World;120412]This is politics, this is governance. Yes, it is good go help protect populaces from the insurgent, from the terrorist. But first, me must ask, have we protected them from their own governments as well??

    Is it our place to protect other populaces from their governments? Do they want us to protect them from their governments?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bob's World View Post
    5th. At the end of the day we are still a great and mighty country. A country with interests. Many of those interests have critical nodes in the Middle East. We must engage to promote those interests. What we must learn is that old techniques that were cavalier to the issues of the populaces affected by such engagement are rendered invalid, dangerous and obsolete by the modern information age. Great Britain learned this lesson to a certain degree when they made the decision that the cost of a colonial empire exceeded the benefit. Today, the cost of the accidental, functional "empire without colonies" built largely through the control measures born of 60 years of Containment also exceeds the benefit. We need to find a new, more efficient model for managing such interests.
    I agree... but I don't think we can accomplish this by trying to proactively reorder the way other governments relate to their populaces, and I don't think most of the populaces in question want the US participating in their internal politics.

    We've meddled in the past, often to bad effect. We shouldn't forget that at the time that meddling was done, we believed ourselves to be on a righteous past. We may now believe that a different sort of meddling will counteract the ill effects of that previous meddling, but we are no more omniscient now than we were then, and the meddling that we now believe to be righteous is likely to come out as badly as what we thought was righteous back in the cold war. he answer to bad meddling isn't good enlightened meddling, it's less meddling.

    Any proposal involving the US inserting itself into the domestic politics of another nation needs to be treated with a whole lot of skepticism, and a whole lot of restraint. IMO, of course.

  16. #116
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- The passengers sat stunned as they watched a man walk quickly toward the front of American Airlines Flight 1561 as it was descending toward San Francisco. He was screaming and then began pounding on the cockpit door.

    *

    Within moments Sunday, a flight attendant tackled Rageh Almurisi. Authorities do not yet have a motive.

    While Almurisi, 28, of Vallejo, Calif., has no clear or known ties to terrorism, authorities say, the incident underscored fears that extremists may try to mount attacks to retaliate for the death of al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden last week.

    Federal agents are investigating Almurisi's background. He was carrying a Yemeni passport and a California identification card, authorities said.
    http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories...TAM&SECTION=US
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    Default Obligated, but....

    While our national defense team is obligated (and should continue) to make educated guesses on AQ and AQ's associated movements next move, in the end (except for specific plans that intelligence manages to find out about) it is still a guess. Terrorism doesn't have a next move, terrorism is a tactic, so those that employ it will base their next move off their strategy and the environment we present (we close off some options, and leave others open).

    Individuals who are self radicalized and want to act out (as perhaps the individual on the plane did) will remain unpredictable. The correct response is educated airline employess and an educated public that are aware of their environment and what a potential threat may look like (without unreasonable paranoia), and then a well trained and dispersed security force (local to federal) that can quickly react. As has been stated many times we have to get it right everytime, while those who conduct terrorism only need to get right just once. While not a defeatist, since the the three groups I mentioned above have so far been 100% successful in the States since 9/11, I suspect eventually they'll have a successful attack somewhere in the U.S. again, so we need the capability to respond effectively to a mass casualty situation. For the most part we are doing pretty good on the homefront (what should be most important to us). Our foreign policy is open to debate in regards to GWOT.

    To reinforce that war is a series of actions and reactions here is a comment from one of their best tactical leaders,

    http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/KJ15Df04.html

    "Our battle cannot be against Muslims and believers. As I have mentioned earlier, what is happening at the moment in the Muslim world is a complexity due to American power games which have resulted into reactions and counter-reactions. This is a totally different debate and might deviate me from the real topic. The real game is the fight against the great Satan and its adherents," Ilyas said.

  18. #118
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    TBO.com > News > AP
    May 12, 7:59 AM EDT
    Official: 2 men arrested in NYC terror probe
    By COLLEEN LONG and TOM HAYS
    Associated Press


    NEW YORK (AP) -- A law enforcement official tells The Associated Press that two men are in custody in an investigation that may be related to terrorism in New York City. The official would not give further details about the charges the men face.
    http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories...TAM&SECTION=US
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    SHABQADAR, Pakistan — A pair of suicide bombers attacked recruits leaving a paramilitary training center in Pakistan on Friday, killing 80 people in a strike that the Pakistani Taliban claimed it carried out to avenge the killing of Osama bin Laden.
    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43017005...ores-pakistan/
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    Default The coming struggle within al-Qaeda

    A short briefing paper on 'The coming struggle within al-Qaeda' by the UK-based Quilliam Foundation:http://www.quilliamfoundation.org/images/aq10may.pdf

    It ends with:
    For the international community, this range of competing trends within al-Qaeda, combined with the game-changing developments of the Arab spring, together create a unique opportunity to undermine and divide al-Qaeda at an ideological and practical level. While military force certainly has a role to play against Al-Qaeda (as was demonstrated by the US raid that killed bin Laden), other tools may also become increasingly effective at fragmenting the organisation from within.
    What makes this worth reading is one of the two authors is Noman Benotman, an ex-LIFG leader and who was at one time an "insider" within 'AQ Central'.
    davidbfpo

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