Is It Time to Get Out of Afghanistan?

[Ray]

Cockpit of the world? Hardly. I can't see how a US presence in Afghanistan would squeeze China or Russia in any way, or serve as a strategic asset in any way.

I am sure you are aware of the US attempts to woo the CAR countries ever since they broke away from Russia. Apart from the Caspian oil, also the other reasons thereof.

Here is a glimpse of the US interests in CAR:

In the summer of 2005, Frederick Starr, chairman of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies published an article in the US Magazine "Foreign Affairs", in which he clearly put forward the vision of the "Great Central Asia" strategy.

Starr proposed in a "Great Central Asia cooperative partnership for development" which will have the US taking the lead, the five Central Asian states and Afghanistan entering as the main members, and India and Pakistan participating in. The main idea of the proposal is to take the US control of the situation in Afghanistan as an opportunity, promote optional and flexible cooperation in security, democracy, economy, transport and energy, and, make up a new region by combining Central Asia with South Asia. The United States is to shoulder the role of a midwife to promote the rebirth of the entire region."

The US government quickly accepted this concept.

Break Russia's dominance in Central Asia

Russia and China are graphically adjacent to each other in Central Asia area. Both countries have their own state interests in the region. The five Central Asian states have common needs for economic development, anti-terrorism and regional security with China and Russia. Under the framework of the SCO, the mutual cooperation between these countries has been enhanced. Correspondingly, the influence of China and Russia in Central Asia is rising.

Obviously, the US is not happy with this situation. The reason why it has brought up the so-called "choosing from the South" policy in Central Asia is that it is determined to use energy, transportation and infrastructure construction as bait to separate Central Asia from the post-Soviet Union dominance. By this means, it can change the external strategic focus of Central Asia from the current Russia-and-China-oriented partnership to cooperative relations with South Asian countries. It can break the long-term Russian dominance in the Central Asian area, it can split and disintegrate the cohesion of the SCO and gradually establish US dominance in the new plate of Central and South Asia.
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/20...03_289512.html

If the US interest in CAR and Afghanistan were not strategically important it would have not spooked China as is evident from the above.

By December, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State George Krol told the Senate that “The region is at the fulcrum of key U.S. security, economic and political interests. It demands attention and respect and our most diligent efforts. The Obama Administration is committed to that very approach”. Those were not just words. Other Administration documents recognize the fragility of the region’s security situation. Therefore, the U.S. is now pursuing vigorous multi-dimensional initiatives going beyond the war in Afghanistan, which will allow it to maintain a presence in Central Asia after troops begin leaving Afghanistan in 2011. Krol announced the formation of a regular high-level dialogue with Central Asian states to help them resist both Russian and Chinese incursions on their independence, work with the U.S. towards that end, and foster regional cooperation. Obviously, this also means renewed U.S. interest in large-scale investments.

More strikingly, high-level visits to the region have resumed.
http://eurodialogue.org/Is-A-US-Stra...ia-Emerging%3F

This will also be of interest to know the US Russia equation:

The Medvedev Doctrine and American Strategy
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/medve...rican_strategy

The only caution is look at the broad picture and not read selectively or merely be country specific.

Why would anyone pump oil from the Caspian south to Gwadar and then back north to China... especially when there are already pipelines direct from the Caspian to China via Kazakhstan? It makes no sense at all. And while of course the Chinese are trying to diversify their sources and routes of supply as much as possible (and the Caspian oil producers are trying to develop export routes that don't pass through Russia), these pipelines do nothing to secure the Chinese against an "push comes to shove" effort to cut off Chinese oil supplies. If the US ever decided to try and blockade Chinese oil - essentially in the event of open war - the pipelines would be the easiest of targets, and cutting them off would be far easier than enforcing a naval blockade.

Lots of shaky conclusions based on sketchy evidence and reasoning here.

Nothing shaky really.

There is evidence in abundance, but it is expected that others are in the know. Or else, with each thought appending evidence clutters the post as also appears condescending as it assumes that the reader is not conversant with the happening in the world. That is why I tread the issue softly lest it gave reason for umbrage.

At the same time, I seek one’s indulgence one studies the issues with resolve and without being perfunctory.

A valid observation – why pump oil to Gwadar and then through the sealanes north to China?

Suffice it to say that this will explain:

The fact that the countries of the region lack the capital and the technology to proceed independently to the development of these oilfields offers American companies, such as Chevron, considerable investment opportunities.

In this context, we can better understand the geopolitical and economic aims of the US in Central Asia. At the geopolitical level, the United States wants to help the countries of Central Asia to develop their oil and natural gas industries. According to the estimates of the American Government, this development will bring about economic growth and will help these countries move away from the Russian sphere of influence.

At the economic level, the development of the oil industry of these countries means investment opportunities for the American construction and oil companies. Politically, the United States will be in a position to control these new important energy resources and diversify its own sources supply.

American private companies have been supported by the US Government in at least two countries of Central Asia, namely, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. Other American political objectives include the containment of Iran and the reinforcement of Turkey's role in the region. The US has not only blocked any pipeline route passing through Iran, but has also cancelled Iran. Ås participation in the international consortium which has undertaken oil production in Azerbaijan
http://www.hri.org/MFA/thesis/winter98/geopolitics.html

There are enough links to indicate the interest and control of CAR oil by US companies. Google is you wish.

If the US controls the oil, then it controls the world economy. Obviously, they will not use the Chinese pipeline, which will not be under their control. Malfunction and hence loss of revenue will result. Instead the US will use their own to Gwadar and then have the Chinese, at their expense, ferry it to China. That is the first issue.

India is also expected to be an oil hungry nation. Gwadar is ideal than having the oil sent through China and then through Nepal to India.

Two birds with one stone!

Pipelines can be interdicted, but if the oil supply of oil is controlled ab initio because the US controls the transshipment, then which is the better option?

In peacetime, the quantum of oil extraction and supply also controls the state of the world market and consequently the world economy. The OPEC has played this game rather well. One of the reasons for Iraq was to control the oil of Iraq (the second largest oilfield in the world) so as to break the OPEC cartel.

I presume none can go to war if the oil supply dwindles (controlled).

Where is the question of a naval blockade to its ‘own’ port, Gwadar?

In case of war, will China be capable of blockading Gwadar if it is under US control?