Solomon Islands (inc. Guadalcanal) peacemaking by RAMSI

[Mark O'Neill]

From an Australian perspective, an interesting read, especially seeing familar names for change.

I am not sure that this is useful from a COIN perspective. To use an old Army term, I think the idea behind this report is 'chasing ground'. The argument that "it would have developed into an insurgency if we hadn't done something" is nonsense. No one can predict with any surety what 'might' have happened. The Solomons, like may other states, has seemingly existed on the margins of state failure for years. Looking at some of the challenges it faces, it probably still does. The 'fall from grace' in the South Pacific has often proven to be slow and non-linear. It often is also not not much of a fall from the norm.

Interestingly, no government official or analyst here has used publically used the term COIN 'on the record' in relation to commentary about RAMSI. From the Prime Minister down. Nor is it routinely discussed in Australian Army circles , or the COIN manual that is currently been drafted, as such.

The praise of RAMSI's success must also be taken with a pinch of salt. We have had a modicum of success -so far. RAMSI only remains in location and doing its assigned tasks at the whim of the duly elected Solomons government. That 'permission' has held, to date. There are no guarantees that this situation will endure. Recent developments do little to encourage undue optimism.

I am not sure what the point about repeated emphasis on 'governments' in the insurgency definition is, unless it is some form of endorsement of David Kilcullen's 'Global Insurgency' theory. What is the relevance of its repeated emphasis in relation to the Solomons?

The paper is a good summary of how 'whole of government' / 'interagency' can work in a specific example. However, in this regard it is not necessarily 'new' - several papers publsihed here last year made the same point.

A final, minor observation. Regarding the story about an 'ex army lawyer' talking about the worry that the AFP might not be able to use ADF 'Glocks'. The Australian Army's service pistol was then, and still is now, the 9mm Browning SLP. It either says something about our Lawyers and their knowledge of guns, or the quality of editing / checking of the paper. I will be charitable and subscribe to the former.