The US & others working with Pakistan

[Ray]

......but perhaps it is this very timidity of the GOI that will result in their attempting to "ride it out" again rather than in terms of Cold Start to effectively send troops into Pakistan and thereby risk tactical nuke retaliation from Pakistan and the escalation that would follow?

There is always a desire and tendency with the Indian Govt 'to ride out crises'

I think it is because of a cultural problem.

I was just reading this today about the reflection of a Rajput King on the wars fought during the Mughal times between the Rajput and the Mughuls:

The truth is, I know nothing in our scriptures, which could compare with the motivation and power of Islam. We, too, could and do fight holy wars, but there is no mechanism for conversion in our religion. The urge to convert, definitely is one of the driving forces of Islam.

Our greatest call to war is the Bhagwat Gita, and what does the Gita say? Fight the war or perform the duties of your vocation, whatever they may be, but without thinking of the fruits and the consequence of your action. Compare this with what Islam codifies and spells out in most precise and factual manner. If you die fighting for your God, you go direct to Heaven where houris and other vividly described indescribable pleasures await you.

What is the afterlife the Gita offers? For the great mass of unenlightened souls, there is nothing but an endless cycle reincarnations. Unless we deliver certainties of afterlife and be specific of preternatural joys await those who fulfil their duties,I doubt if we will be able to match the Muslim's zeal or commitment. It is a wonder then that Hindus win was as many as they do!!

It makes me uncomfortable since it is not very PC, but then if one thinks about it, it does indicate a sort of fatalism and unwillingness to be aggressive since there is nothing in afterlife except reincarnation the level of increase in the form of existence in the next life, dependent on the karma of the present!! And to be non violent and being Goody Two Shoes elevates you to a better level of existence in your next life.

Of course, with modernity, very few would believe all this, but then who knows if maybe playing on the subconscious!

Thus, possibly the timidity of the Govt!

If the Govt 'rides it out' once more, then there will be a groundswell against the Govt. Politics in our country is basically for power and pelf and 5 years out of office is an unimaginable torture to them and their extended family. Therefore, they will have to act. There were the nuclear weapons when Kargil happened. Yet, they had to act and they did.

There is always the possibility of Pakistan using a tactical nuclear weapon.The world will be inflamed at the audacity and it will add to their ire of Pakistan being the womb of terrorism and a safe haven for terrorists. Pakistan will be in the international doghouse.

They cannot use the nuclear tactical weapons everywhere and the Indians would not be having a single thrust. It will be on a very broad front. The nuclear fallout will also affect the Pakistanis themselves and their civilians too. It will also affect civilian life in Pakistan after the war because of the residual effect.

It is a gamble that India has to take if they mean business and send a message that enough is enough.

The war will finally be called to a halt by the international powers. And if a tac nuke is used, it will be sooner than later.

If Pakistan is in the international doghouse and the war will be halted, India would have her way in the negotiations that would take place after the war since the world would not be favourable to those who use nuclear weapons, be they tactical or strategic.

If India were to become the sole regional power would it likely become aggressive and predatory like the US, Russia and China? Somehow I don't think so. How would a "timid" power impose itself on those in its region of influence?

I don't think the India, even if she ever becomes a regional power, will be in the same mode as the real powers.

The problem with India is her cultural psyche. Pacifism and riding the high moral high horse. Right from her Independence, this malaise has overpowered her thinking - this Gandhism of extending the other cheek and all that.

In the first Kashmir war, when the Indian Army was knocking at the door of Muazzfarabad and had linked Uri with Punch, good old 'holy' Nehru, called a stop and like a good boy left it to the UN leaving this unholy mess in Kashmir.

Recalled the troops back to Uri. My uncle was commanding this Brigade.

Instead of understanding realpolitik, Nehru ensured the Indian Army to be a ceremonial army with the Ordnance Factories producing coffee machines, till shaken by China in 1962. In fact, China by doing so, actually did India a favour and woke her from the Rip Van Winkle like eternal sleep!

1965, Pakistan attacked in the Rann of Kutch and like good boys, we allowed Wilson to mediate and part with some of the land. Pakistan, gleeful at this 'victory' clandestinely started Op Gibraltar and when the Kashmiri Muslim gujjars reported the infiltration, escalated it into a full fledged war! That Pakistan failed in its design is another story.

Then at Tashkent, the meek Indian PM Lal Bahadur Shastri (otherwise a good and honest man) was browbeaten to give up strategic gains like the Haji pir Pass.

1971 was a different matter when a woman (and they are dangerous and vicious! ), who was called the 'dumb doll, by her political opponents, was the PM. She taught a lesson to Pakistan, the wounds of which they are still licking.

Thereafter, Kargil where the Nation forced action. The Indian culture lulled all with the 'bus diplomacy' and the Mohajir Musharaff (they are the clever lot in Pakistan. In fact, I have published on the rational of the internal struggle between the 'sons of the soil' and the Mohajir (refugees from India) ) pulled the rug from under the feet of India. The fact that India did not cross the LC and enlarge the war was 'mature and statesmanlike' - sops given to satisfy personal egos by the international community petrified that a nuclear war was in the offing!!

Rampant terrorism spawned from across including Mumbai and India plays the role of 'matured statesmanlike' behaviour as many die! Human lives are cheap, so long it is not a politician's or their family's in India!

Like there is deep resentment against the US in Pakistan, there is deep resentment and its is growing at the supine behaviour of the Indian Govt in India.

But then there is saving grace for the pacifist. As more and more Indians become affluent, the less will be their desire to wreck their Nest Egg!

PS: Ray as India is one of the few affected countries seemingly taking an aggressive approach to the rapidly spilling over Somali piracy your input (if you can find the time) would IMHO be welcome in the More Piracy Near Somalia thread.

Thanks to ray for his Indian perspective, so this link may help SWC to understand what we can expect from India:http://www.sunday-guardian.com/analy...ation-is-naive

Admittedly a comment on an Indian SF mission.

I did note this, which I've not seen elsewhere and concerned me...:

The author writes a weekly column, sometimes on national security issues and is a former senior police officer and intelligence officer (with RAW).

Interesting comments.

PS Sorry if I rambled.