seeking a current annex B, Intelligence Estimate for Iraq.
any info is appreciated.
I am a member of TX ARNG, we are preparing a small unit to deploy in the near future, I am looking for as much information as I can get for them.
Last edited by texas1; 03-21-2007 at 03:33 PM.
Michigan State has a good library on this topic under threat assessments.seeking to get a current annex b, that is UNCLASS. For Iraq, thanks
http://www.lib.umich.edu/govdocs/iraqwar.html
Check the CALL NIPR (and the SIPR if you have access). Give us a call per my PM if you need assistance.
Tom
Intel Estimate, Para 3 - Threat Situation
a. Composition: Key personalities (internal and external); political cadre/cells/organization; leadership (internal and external); intelligence cells; attack teams/operations cells; finance (internal and external), logistics/support cells; external ties. Religious, ethnic, tribal and familial structure and organization may be tightly linked in with all of the preceding elements, but should also be discussed separately.
Note: Pay attention to the fact that "leadership" and "key personalities" aren't necessarily the same thing. There will definitely be overlap, but you will usually find different people placed in each category.
b. Disposition: Areas of control (religious, ethnic, tribal, political and/or familial demographics); C2 nodes, safe houses, front organizations, training camps, logistics/support nodes.
c. Strength: A good indicator of threat strength is the degree of popular support. With strong popular support, the threat organization has a greater capability to obtain safe havens, it enhances their freedom of movement and degree of logistical/financial support, increases the amount and quality of intelligence collection and results in increased recruiting.
Note: Popular support also heavily influences "b." above. There are several discussion threads, and not a few linked articles, on SWC that discuss the nature and impact of popular support. But there is always room for more, especially with a tighter focus....
d. Tactics and Training: Tactics in this context also involve political, psychological and economic considerations, as well as military.
Note: Pay close attention to threat TTPs and maintain awareness for details of seemingly unrelated incidents that may not be immediately apparent as threat activities.
e. Logistics: Networks that obtain, store and distribute weapons and ammunition, IED components, food, water, equipment for generating various media (propaganda support), medical, transportation/VBIED platforms, and finances.
Note: In secure, compartmented threat networks, step-by-step cell structure is very commonly used in logistics support.
f. Intelligence: Identify how the threat is currently collecting against friendly forces; tends to be HUMINT intensive.
g. PSYOP: Identify the media and determine how it is being disseminated. Assess the effectiveness on the public in the area of operations.
h. Communications: May range from HF, short wave and cell phone, to internet, courier and crude-to-sophisticated use of tradecraft in clandestine communications.
Note: Old-fashioned tradecraft in clandestine comms (brush passes, dead drops, etc. etc.) are often replicated on the internet in the virtual world. It can be challenging.
Note: The next piece of the estimate, Para 4, Threat Capabilities, can be incredibly complex when put together correctly in this context and requires access to a tremendous amount of info that is not available on NIPR.
....just posting this since the topic jogged some thoughts. It may or may not be of use to anyone.
Last edited by Jedburgh; 03-21-2007 at 04:59 PM.
Are you a member of the AKO BCKS MI Net? If not, you should be. It's not a crazy busy forum, but there is some stuff there you can use.
That's a real understatement. The BCKS forums in general are not very populated, and MI Net is one of the slowest of the bunch. But it is a lot better than the so-called "Intelligence" forum on AKO. I also think that signing up to the COIN Operations and Foreign Security Force Assistance forums on BCKS will probably be more beneficial, given the nature of his RFI.
However, Texas1 also posted his RFI on the INTELST list-serve, which is much better at reaching out to the MI community than is the BCKS forum. But a plus with BCKS is that if someone has a good FOUO-or-below doc for him that is too large for e-mail, he will most likely be able to upload it on one of the forums' "Knowledge" sections.
I joined the BCKS forums (Intel) a few months back, but after digging around, I got the feeling that only one person ever uploaded anything, and the forums weren't very informative. Different issue with CALL. I liked the products, they did a great one on Sniper TTP's, but all their stuff is dated one or two years back. When I'm doing analysis or gathering information, the date of the info is the first thing I look at.
I really found this page to be helpful (AKO Login Req'd) Handbooks and Guides
Last edited by dusty; 03-22-2007 at 12:10 PM. Reason: forgot to add link
Dusty,
As a guy who has worked for CALL for the past 6+ years I will say that some CALL stuff is dated. Some is not. I put 5 new handbooks or studies in the past 6 months. And 10 the previous year. The real question you need to ask is what is still relevant.
Plus if you look at the CALL web page, it has changed to a new format that allows easier searches and provides more relevant material.
I would also suggest that you look at the Marines Lessons Learned site as well.
Tom
Tom,
I haven't checked the CALL site in some time, as my initial impression was not so favorable, but I'll go back and check it out. I've got GTA's from MCIA, but haven't looked at their site, so I'll make a point to do that. Thanks for the advice.
dusty
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