Yemen: all you want (2011-2015)

[AdamG]

About 100 armed fighters loyal to a tribal leader in Yemen have clashed with security forces on the northern outskirts of the capital, Sanaa. Tribal leaders say hundreds more are marching towards the city in support of their leader, Sheikh Sadeq al-Ahmar.

Clashes took place near the presidential palace and a post held by the Republican Guard, an elite army unit loyal to President Saleh and led by his son Ahmed, according to AFP.

Map here
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13625811

[davidbfpo]

A succinct analysis by Ginny Hill of who matters:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13560514

Yemen is currently witnessing two parallel power shifts: a popular revolution inspired by the 'Arab spring', and an elite power struggle.

[Dayuhan]

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/...186/story.html

Feud within key Yemen tribe could tear nation apart

The unrest shaking Yemen began months ago as part of the idealistic movement for democracy and political reform sweeping the Middle East. It is now a battle of money, power and egos within a single powerful clan that threatens to tear the country apart.

I don't know enough about Yemen to say whether it's true or not, but somhow the idea of an "idealistic movement for democracy and political reform" devolving into "a battle of money, power, and egos" seems fairly credible to me... though maybe I'm excessively cynical!

[AdamG]

You gotta be sh1tt1n me.

WASHINGTON — The Obama administration has intensified the American covert war in Yemen, exploiting a growing power vacuum in the country to strike at militant suspects with armed drones and fighter jets, according to American officials.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/09/wo...l.html?_r=1&hp

[davidbfpo]

No great surprise such an allegation, but from an 'insider' adds some weight and the sub-title is:

The oldest military ally of Yemen's injured President Ali Abdullah Saleh has said the al-Qaeda terrorist crisis in the country was manufactured to win backing from outside powers.

Topically given recent events he alleges:

Just after Saleh spoke of al-Qaeda seizing control of provinces, the regime handed over Abyan to terrorist gunmen. I fear that the regime might hand over control over other provinces to terrorist groups.

Now where have we heard, nay encountered with substantial evidence that a government has 'manufactured' an internal terrorist group?

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...n-support.html

[davidbfpo]

At last some insight on what is happening, thanks to FP Blog and written by an Australian:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...saleh?page=0,0

I don't suppose the FBI are advertising their role in this ****:

There aren't many foreigners traveling to Sanaa these days, but one group of outsiders is getting a lot of attention: an FBI forensics team, which reportedly arrived last week to investigate the attempted assassination of Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who is now convalescing in Saudi Arabia.

Evidence from the scene indicates that the explosion may have been caused by a device that was planted inside the mosque on the presidential compound, and not by a mortar shell or rocket, as was initially reported. If true, this means that someone with close access to the president was involved, which raises the question of why members of the Yemeni regime's inner circle -- set to mark its 33rd anniversary in power next month -- now appear intent on destroying each other?

[Dayuhan]

Comment on the Yemen/Saudi situation...

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articl...dilemma-061611

[davidbfpo]

Dayuhan,

Good catch the cited article, the last paragraph says it all for the Yemen:

Like their counterparts in Tunisia and Egypt, the demonstrators who have taken to the streets in Yemen over the past months want a new political order, not more of the same. They want a transitional government of national unity, composed of technocrats, that will function until new parliamentary and presidential elections can be held. This, in effect, means the establishment of a democratic order -- an outcome that Riyadh, for ideological and practical reasons, will be reluctant to midwife. This leaves Saudi Arabia caught between two contradictory policy imperatives: maintaining its influence in Yemen and rendering the country sufficiently stable so as not to pose a threat. In Yemen, Riyadh is confronted with difficult choices and no easy solutions.

We know Saudi Arabia supported Mubarak in Egypt till the end, then acknowledged his removal was popular and granted an unconditional US$4 billion loan. So they can move rapidly when needed to change partners.

I wonder if President Saleh will be able to exit his hospital.