John:
If Taiwan decided to join China no one would care. If Taiwan was forced to decide to join China, then a lot of people would care, because that could only happen if China stared us down. If that happened it would change the calculations of a lot of countries. The countries on the Pacific and Indian oceans rim can only stand against China WITH us; and we can only handle China WITH them. If we didn't stand WITH Taiwan against China in a critical situation they would wonder if we would stand with them when the time came. In those circumstances, they would be well advised not to count on us and make their own arrangements.
When that happened, there goes your access to the area. It wouldn't be denied though. It would be controlled and given the life's outlook in the CCP bigwig room, god only knows what that would mean. It wouldn't be good.
There is lots of room for miscalculation in all of this and those miscalculation would be driven by emotion probably. The Poles fought and the Vietnamese might too. The trick is to postpone all this as long as possible to give China a chance to settle down. I believe the way to do that is to start early when things are small and miscalculations don't entail such big consequences. For example, protest loud and strong when the Chinese Navy pushes around Filipino fishermen, sked port calls to Cam Ranh bay and sell the durn F-16s to Taiwan.
I don't expect this to happen though. Early action is contrary to the sensibilities of our betters inside the beltway. They will consider the matter thoughtfully while being cognizant of the subtle nuances of the various alternatives until the alternatives are the devil and the deep blue sea.
Emotions are emotions. Controlled ones are maybe more dangerous because they are more deeply imprinted in the mind. Things may get very dangerous.
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