One of the things people should weigh more heavily in this is the importance of emotion as a driver in China's actions. As noted by many here there is no rational reason for China to go to war with anybody. They are making lots of money right now and there is absolutely no extant external military threat to them, none, zero, zilch, nada. Yet, they continue to do the things they do.
They go ape if we sell Taiwan F-16s. Taiwan will never be a threat to mainland China. Never. We could transfer them the entire B-1B bomber force and all the logistics to go with it and they still wouldn't be a threat to China. But they go ape every time anything is done to enhance Taiwan's ability to defend itself from China. That only makes sense if they want to take it and are willing to do so by force, sometime in the future. Is there any rational, cost vs. benefit reason for them to continue to desire this? No, none. But there is an emotional one for the CCP. They can complete what they started decades ago and smite those who have defied them for so long. That is a very powerful emotional impulse and if it were done there would be very powerful emotional satisfaction.
If you look at their actions with emotion in mind, the things they are doing make some sense. They are building a powerful navy. Why? They haven't been subject to a blockade since the CCP took the place over. We don't do blockades, with the sole exception of Haiphong and that was only briefly and after the NVA had been killing our guys for almost a decade. (whoops, I forgot Libya, but pushing around itty-bitty countries shouldn't make a difference unless you are blinded by emotions.) In any case our navy is shrinking and in 10 years we couldn't do it we wanted to. There is no other navy that could do one. But they are still building a big navy. That only makes sense if they see a possibility of going toe to toe with us at sometime in the future, and that would only make sense if they have a plan in mind that would provoke us beyond endurance. Run the numbers and there is no rational payoff in chancing a fight with us. But there would be emotional satisfaction in showing up the arrogant Yankees.
There was no rational reason for the Japanese to pick on China but they did. There was no good reason for Italy to conquer Ethiopia but they did. There was no good reason for the Germans to invade Poland beyond a desire to do so, but they did it anyway. If anybody in the CCP bigwig room really runs the numbers, there is no reason for them to be do any of the provocative things they have been up to, but they are anyway because they want to. I think it is an emotional drive and helps to lead them into believing their own propaganda as the The Cuyahoga Kid suggested. Emotions are very powerful things and they lead people down paths they oughtant'a go down. This could get very bad.
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