There are a lot of hypotheticals in this discussion. I think it useful nonetheless for the same reason that playing the "what if" game is useful for individuals. If you look far ahead at what may happen you might be more inclined to do the little things now that might keep what may happen from happening.

One of those little things is sailing around with the Filipinos and rattling sabres. If we were to let fear of empowering aggressive Chinese elements keep us from doing that, that would be the greater danger. They are acting quite aggressive on their own hook now. Looks like probing for weakness to me. If they find it, maybe they go further.

It is true that it would be economically foolish for China to attack Taiwan and it will get increasingly so as the years pass. But how many wars have been started in the face of economic ruin? Lots. That doesn't seem to matter much when emotions run high. In that case, the only thing that keeps Taiwan out of the clutches of the CCP is us.

I do agree with you that continued Chinese prosperity is the best thing for all in the long run. Our problem, I think, is keeping the those who want a conquest on their cv down until that dawns on all the senior Chinese leadership.

I think one reason nobody comments on Chinese internal politics is that no one knows what the heck they are. Bob Woodward isn't invited in and the CCP pr dept isn't a big help. Who actually has any idea what transpires?