Nope. I don't buy it. As I have said before, we have never threatened to blockade or deny access to any sea to the Chinese, even when they were shooting at us. That has not happened and will not happen, unless, unless the Chinese were to try something hard on another country in the area. Then we would. So why would they be concerned about maintaining access to the sea in the face of the U.S. Navy unless they wanted to maintain access if they did try something hard. There is no extant threat to them. I am concerned they are thinking there will be in a few years because of what they might be planning to do.
The reason the Taiwanese would have to capitulate if we cut them loose is apparent with just a quick glance at the map and a thought to the relative size of the PRC and Taiwan economies. Taiwan's independence is entirely dependent on sea power. If you ain't got it, the island is untenable. Without us, there is not sufficient sea power to counter that of the mainland, hence Taiwan would have to surrender. If they resisted, it would be suicide. They could be blockaded unto starvation and that would be it.
More later. Must go now.
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