China's Emergence as a Superpower (till 2014)

[Ray]

Shouldn't be looking only at one side of the equation. Sure, countries like the Philippines will run to the US when China gets pushy on the periphery. They'll also quite happily cozy up to the Chinese if they feel like US military aid is les motivated than it was. They'll openly court Chinese investment and business links. It's simplistic to reduce this to "bad bully pushes little guys, who run to heroic big brother for protection". It's more about jostling for position, with everyone in the picture playing multiple games at the same time. We don't want to be pushed around, but we don't want to be played either, and overreacting will be as counterproductive as underreacting.

I have no problem at all with the US sailing a carrier through the China Sea, basing a couple of ships in Singapore, or holding an exercise. All part of the ritual, and generally expected. We should not delude ourselves into thinking that we're changing anything, or deterring anything, by doing that.

I don't see any reason to think that China wants to "swallow" the Philippines or Vietnam, which would be an expensive process with significant risk and little gain.

What has to be understood is that it is more important for the US to have allies around the world than little nations and Third World countries to have US as their all.

Small countries have no options. They have to adjust and are forced by the circumstances to align or, if they have been able to manage it, have a loose alliance to protect their interests. The current contenders to align with are China and the US.

The choice is obvious. One would align with the US because the ‘values’ are near similar and because the US is not in the close proximity and so the chance of territorial disputes are negligible. Further, one has to see the historical antecedents. The US was not an imperialist power expanding its territories.

Compare the same parameters with China. The political ‘values’ are most dissimilar. The close proximity leads to territorial claims and that can keep increasing even if some understanding is reached for the initial claims and historically China has been an imperialist power that has a unique method to Sinicize people. The attempts in Tibet and Xinjiang are modern cases in point.

The US does not want to be played around. What makes one feel that it can be played around? Take the example of India (and it not quite a pushover either). India requires Iran gas very urgently and it had good relations with Iran so much so India has participated in industry, business and building Iran’s infrastructure such as the Chahbahar port. Yet, India had to give way because of US pressures. India voted against Iran and has walked out of the Iran – Pakistan – India pipeline project. In short, India has lost a friend in many ways than one. Strategically, whatever little India could have done in pursuing her strategic interest in Afghanistan, and to a great extent in CAR has gone for a toss. So, it is another of the myths that the US can be ‘played around’.

The issue of ‘business and investment’ is overdone. Business and investment will get attracted. come what may, if the environment is conducive. If the environment is not conducive, then no coercion or otherwise can attract anything. A case in point is that China does business with India and vice versa since it is profitable to do so, even though there is a cold hostility.

The positioning of warships in Singapore by the US is hardly a ritual. It is an unfriendly act as far as China is concerned, more so, the warships have been placed in an area considered as an international ‘strategic chokepoint’.

If it were but only a ritual, then why has India not given access to the US to have submarine pens in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands which could allow US dominance over the Straits of Malacca, the Ten Degree channel as also the seaways to Myanmar, where the Chinese are said to have naval facilities?

The US is not changing anything by holding exercises or steaming a aircraft carrier in the proximity of China. It is only being a ‘threat in being’. In other words, a threat and yet not applied.

China does not swallow anyone as if it were a hungry alligator. Notice the subtlety in ‘peacefully’ trying to change the perception that Arunachal Pradesh is ‘South Tibet’ or the ‘friendly’ manner in which she made her claim and annexed the Shaksgam Valley in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. The Chinese are a very patient people.

Sun Tzu said:

All men can see these tactics whereby I conquer, but what none can see is the strategy out of which victory is evolved.