China's Emergence as a Superpower (till 2014)

[Dayuhan]

Small countries have no options. They have to adjust and are forced by the circumstances to align or, if they have been able to manage it, have a loose alliance to protect their interests. The current contenders to align with are China and the US.

Small countries don't have to align with one or the other. They can, and often do, maintain relations with both, and try to get the big powers to compete for their friendship. The large can push and shove; the small have to manipulate.

The choice is obvious. One would align with the US because the ‘values’ are near similar and because the US is not in the close proximity and so the chance of territorial disputes are negligible. Further, one has to see the historical antecedents. The US was not an imperialist power expanding its territories.

Then where does all this talk about the "American Empire" come from? Not that I'm persuaded by that construct, but lots of people are, and lots of people see US domination as a threat as imminent as Chinese aggression.

The US does not want to be played around. What makes one feel that it can be played around? Take the example of India (and it not quite a pushover either). India requires Iran gas very urgently and it had good relations with Iran so much so India has participated in industry, business and building Iran’s infrastructure such as the Chahbahar port. Yet, India had to give way because of US pressures. India voted against Iran and has walked out of the Iran – Pakistan – India pipeline project. In short, India has lost a friend in many ways than one. Strategically, whatever little India could have done in pursuing her strategic interest in Afghanistan, and to a great extent in CAR has gone for a toss. So, it is another of the myths that the US can be ‘played around’.

Aren't the Pakistanis playing the US, and rather effectively? What's the US return on all that investment?

People work the US all the time. Sometimes they try and fail: not so long ago, for example, the Georgian government tried to push the edge with the Russians, assuming they could pull the US in behind them. It didn't work; the US refused to be played. Under other circumstances it might have worked. Telling someone that you're on their side all the time, no matter what happens, just encourages that party to go out and get into trouble.

The positioning of warships in Singapore by the US is hardly a ritual. It is an unfriendly act as far as China is concerned, more so, the warships have been placed in an area considered as an international ‘strategic chokepoint’.

Possibly unfriendly, in a marginal sort of way. They'll live with it, and it won't change their plans.

The Chinese are a very patient people.

The US might do well to emulate that stereotype, though if China's economy falters, as is likely, we may see that a lot of Chinese are less patient than we expected them to be.