I'm reminded of an anecdote I read a couple of years ago: A British intelligence analyst in the first half the 20th century, when talking about his career said something to the effect of (paraphrasing from memory): "I always predicted the status quo, that there would be no war. I was only wrong twice."

Fuchs,

That's all true, but the problem is that most people don't judge risk based on statistics or a strict utilitarian worldview.