We can defeat AQ by killing off its intellectual and idealist heads and should continue to do so, what we can't defeat is the idealism associated with Islamist radicalization. "We" will not defeat that by out competing the Islamists for influence, that competition must come from within Islam's ranks. We have every right to defend ourselves in the meantime, and we won't accomplish much in the way of disrupting planned attacks with development and information operations, that is a myth we have perpetuated and have spent billions on for all the wrong reasons.
Will AQ move? First you have to define AQ, in case I assume you're talking about the leadership core, which has a long history of moving (Pakistan, Sudan, Afghanistan, back to Pakistan). What is important to note in my view is they never selected a failed state to establish their safe haven, because failed states will not provide any degree of safehaven. They sought some degree of protection from their host government (Sudan, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan). Yemen on the verge of being a failed state, Somalia is a failed state, so I'm not sure what options are available. Iran could provide some degree of safehaven, but then Iran would control their operations and basically assume control of their activities (I suspect), so that is probably low on the list.
Pakistan may be tough, but it may also be their best bet, and indicate AQ as we knew it is about to go extinct, but that doesn't mean we will see the end of Islamist terrorism.
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