Will China Inherit Afghanistan’s War?
Sept. 26 – As the United States continues its preparations to exit Afghanistan, comments made by ex-U.S. forces suggest that an alternative power may have to step into their shoes. Stating recent attacks made by the mafia-styled Haqqani family, Marc Sageman, an ex-CIA officer who served in Pakistan has been quoted in the press as saying “Whoever is in power in Afghanistan will have to make a deal with the Haqqani’s. It won’t be us, we’re leaving and they know it.”
That China and Pakistan enjoy strong diplomatic and economic relations is well known, as are the certainties of a U.S. pullout. But Pakistan, facing a choice between being overrun by Taliban, giving up Afghanistan to India, or pulling in the Chinese, may only have the one viable option – major Chinese involvement, whether China likes it or not. It may also suit a war-weary United States to sit back and watch developments, including whether China can step up to the plate as a global citizen and maintainer of peace.
That China may well have to do so appears increasingly likely........
Squeezed out of the equation Pakistan may well be, and it seems likely that Sino-Iranian deals will start to become much more in favor of Tehran’s bilateral trade with China as a result, as Iran twists the key to obtain concessions from China in return for ceasing to arm militants. Only time will tell if an Iran-Pak-China military triumvirate will succeed where the United States has left an inheritance. Afghanistan could become more stable if Iran ceases its involvement, but this could be ruptured if intent towards Pakistani territory becomes apparent. This is, after all, a country that fought a seven year war with Iraq.
But should violence in Xinjiang start to increase, such support may well lead to a short cut into direct Chinese military involvement in Pakistan and Afghanistan. The Chinese won’t like it. But with the United States watching from the wings, it may now only be a short time before China has to step up, get into Afghanistan, and see what it really means to limit Islamic insurgents on its own borders.
http://www.2point6billion.com/news/2...war-10219.html
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