While none of us actually know how the future will unfold, I really can't see how a conflict over energy in Central Asia would be localized. The potential confluence of seller, buyer, middle man interests and then their allies interests "could" result in a wider scale conflict that will effect more than the region. I'm not advocating U.S. involvement in other people's fights, but rather supporting Bob's argument that deterrence is probably in our national interests. Whether deterrence will work or not has always been questionable.

Irregular warfare will remain (as it has for years) a persistent condition globally that will challenge our security interests in some locations, but the greatest threats are still state versus state conflicts, and of course they'll leverage the irregular actors where possible to augment other efforts (just as they did during the two world wars).

The SECDEF was correct IMO when he said we need balanced capabilities, but I suspect we're way out of balance at the moment.