Winning the War in Afghanistan

[omarali50]

Pakistan knows it onions.

It is not going down that easily, or is it?

There is news report that their Senate has refused to go the Army HQ for a Briefing.

Instead, they have asked the Army to come to them and give the briefing.

There is still some hope!

There is always hope. Pakistan is a potential smaller BRIC but its "strategic thinkers" are sabotaging its potential instead of building it up. And they are doing so because they lack the imagination to move beyond a narrowly "India-centric" notion of the identity of Pakistan. The so-called "ideology of Pakistan" is more than usually lethal. It is held in check by all the pressures of real life economics (which still operate in Pakistan as they do in all countries) but the generals never waste an opportunity to waste an opportunity. The impending failure of NATO in Afghanistan is going to provide them yet another chance to go back to their stupid games and they look like they will take that chance.
But there is always hope. If the US stops enabling their "strategic worldview" and lets China pick up the tab (forcing them to also make the hard decisions), who knows, they may yet sneak out of this cul-de-sac. Its not like they have NO clue. They have a clue, but just short of enough of a clue....a little help from their friends will push them this way or that. This way would be better than that.
But its not going to be easy either way.
"THis way" means the crazier Islamists will all figure out that the "Sulah e Hudaybia" phase (the temporary truce with the infidels) is not a temporary ruse, its a permanent state and they are the ones being taken for a ride. When they figure out such things, they tend to explode. Literally. It will be tough.
"That way" means the rest of the world (including the "good infidels" in China) will figure out that sulah e hudaybia was indeed a ruse and the Islamic revolutionary network has a safe haven and intends to use it, at a minimum in the local region. Even in the best case scenario, some upset infidels will try to throw a spanner in the works. That too is not going to be easy.

[davidbfpo]

Hat tip to the Australian think tank, the Lowry Institute, for this article on an attack I'd noted and not fully appreciated - a Taliban attack in the Panjshir Valley:http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/...-fortress.aspx

Panjshir is effectively Afghanistan's charter province: a place where improving security and living standards have shown that the ISAF campaign can work....

Despite the relatively low loss of life and infrastructure, this attack provides enormous strategic value to the Taliban. It demonstrates that its claim that 'NATO is no longer safe anywhere in the country' is essentially true.

...This attack takes away the one success story that ISAF and the Afghan government had, and the Taliban propaganda machine has been quick to text Western journalists to point that out.

Since the thread's title is 'Winning the War in Afghanistan' it made me wonder if the Taliban and allies (no names) strategy of reducing the confidence of it's opponents is winning.

Having read elsewhere 'Red Rat' contention is that in Helmand the Taliban have had a bad time: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...t=14285&page=4, Post No.64:

In Helmand the evidence would tend to support the counter-proposition; the the Taleban are playing catch-up to ISAF at the tactical and operational level. They are heavily attrited, have comprehensively lost influence, lost control of ground, and their ability to prosecute successful attacks has declined markedly as well. We have now seen over 12 months of steady decline in violence in Helmand, no summer campaign season in the traditional sense and winter season which has seen ISAF move from consolidation to offence. Part of the reason that so few insurgents are being killed now is that there are far fewer of them left - attrition still plays a role in campaigning.

From my faraway armchair the campaigning in Helmand is peripheral to the high impact, public attacks approach to reducing confidence in important locations and as in Panjshir iconic places.

[Red Rat]

I am more focused on the UK Army's bewildering change programme then I am on Afghanistan at the moment

From my albeit limited perspective.

1) In Helmand the insurgencies are on the tactical defensive.

2) In the eastern provinces the insurgencies are under pressure and ISAF appears to be increasingly focusing its efforts in the east and on the border.

3) The various insurgent groups realise that the issue now is not whether or not the Coalition will withdraw, but the shape of Afghanistan after withdrawal. That is why we are seeing more high profile attacks and attacks on what are for them High Value Targets. They are conducting shaping operations for post-ISAF Afghanistan, aiming to increase their power and prestige in ongoing negotiations and within their own constituencies.

My tuppence worth; I could be entirely mistaken!

[taabistan]

Optimism is in the DNA of the military.

[Red Rat]

Optimism is in the DNA of the military.

Unless you equate limited tactical success with guaranteed strategic success (which I don't ) then I am not sure that my posts could be described as optimistic.

To clarify:

In Helmand the insurgencies do appear to be on the backfoot. That does appear to be a tactical success, but it is limited geographically and I am not sure if the political gains match the tactical gains locally.

In the East the insurgencies are coming under pressure - I am not in a position to say what that means in terms of outcomes or likely outcomes or even if they are on the defensive or constrained significantly in the East; they are simply coming under pressure.

At the strategic level a different game is being played out. I remain somewhat confused by our (the UK's) strategic goals and accompagnying strategy so I refrain from comment on the likely outcomes; but it looks to me like the Afghans (and other regional non-Western) players are now playing for the post-withdrawal outcomes and in that game the West is increasingly peripheral.

[taabistan]

The problem is, Red Rat, I don't disbelieve you or any one else when you say the US/UK military win in tactical battles. I would be extremely surprised if you didn't.

My question is, how are you going to sort out the Afghan government? I asked this question to General Stanley McChrystal when I was in Afghanistan, and all I could hear was military jargon.

In Iraq, there was a dynamic, strong government. Maliki was seen as an independent figure, and people saw supporting it as being a way for getting US troops out but also not avoid being mired in horror.

Karzai is a joke in everyone's eyes. For the Taliban, they see losing in the battlefield as only a short term inconvenience because they know no one trusts the man to lead the country.

[Dayuhan]

Many years ago when all this was still beginning, I wrote that the worst possible outcome in Afghanistan would be to find ourselves harnessed to a government that cannot stand, but that we believe we cannot allow to fall. It's starting to look like we've found our way to that place, or something very much like it.