I am more focused on the UK Army's bewildering change programme then I am on Afghanistan at the moment

From my albeit limited perspective.

1) In Helmand the insurgencies are on the tactical defensive.

2) In the eastern provinces the insurgencies are under pressure and ISAF appears to be increasingly focusing its efforts in the east and on the border.

3) The various insurgent groups realise that the issue now is not whether or not the Coalition will withdraw, but the shape of Afghanistan after withdrawal. That is why we are seeing more high profile attacks and attacks on what are for them High Value Targets. They are conducting shaping operations for post-ISAF Afghanistan, aiming to increase their power and prestige in ongoing negotiations and within their own constituencies.
My tuppence worth; I could be entirely mistaken!