The new Libya: various aspects

[Dayuhan]

Couldn't tel, at first, whether this was just a one-off comment on Libya, or something with broader application (Iraq, Afghanistan)....

Meant to be generic. The theory, in general, operates on two levels...

Overthrowing a dictator from the inside requires that opposing factions organize and cooperate to some extent. In practical terms, this places them in a better position to manage after the dictator's fall. It's not necessarily a perfect position, and the danger that a coalition will fracture, sometimes violently, or that one faction will install themselves as a new despot is always there. Overall, though, it's a better position than what's left when a despot is removed by external action, leaving little or no organized capacity locally.

On a more airy-fairy level, when people have to fight for freedom, they are more personally invested in it and more likely to take personal responsibility for what happens after, even if only in their own small patch.

As with all general theories, this is not universally applicable and will see all manner of permutations. Your mileage may vary. Overall, though, I do believe that, as above, some things people need to do for themselves, at least to the greatest possible extent.

[Steve the Planner]

Right.

I go to planning seminars on community participation--how to get a few residents to show up for anything, or, more challenging, what to do when dozens of angry residents show up. Getting them involved, diffusing their anger by meaningful participation, etc...

Th US"Failed State" efforts never quite got the drift of how essential that community engagement is, especially in times of war and strife. If they aren't going to engage then, when would they?

As a long ago blown up Iraqi provincial official once said: Concerned Local Citizens,everyone is a concerned local citizen; look at what's going on...

My interest was always about how COIN and US micro-strategies actually disrupted community engagement (although they never understood how or why)---and the natural instincts of all humans after a major natural disaster or war to rapidly get their lives back together.

I've read some very optimistic on-the-ground reports by Rory Stewart that suggest that the Libyan movement (never militarily professionalized) will be positively surprising (fingers crossed).