Energy Security

[Rick M]

I do see potential for limited production due to political, security, and investment-related constraints. Any number of scenarios can be envisioned, all of which could result in major price spikes and significant economic dislocation. Again, the problem would not be an absence of oil, but that oil would become very expensive for some time. I don't see the idea of a "peak" being a useful way to describe this: it's more a situation where ability to increase production might be constrained, or where output might see a transient decrease, in response to factors not at all related to the geology or engineering of oilfields... factors like war, revolution, state collapse, etc, ad infinitum.

I can't of a credible PO analyst who would claim that the eventual peaking of global oil production will be due solely to geological factors.
Each factor that you have mentioned (and many more) is a very significant piece of this highly complex puzzle, and this is well understood by contemporary PO analysts.
PO thinking has evolved over the years and I think that most analysts these days place a much higher weighting on above-ground factors and less on the issue of reserves, which would be a shift from Hubbert's position in the 1940s & 50s.

Gail Tverberg would certainly be considered a PO analyst (and a thoughtful, reasonable one in my opinion), but she (like you) wonders about the usefulness of the "PO" term in describing the current situation:
"Some people would describe the phenomenon as "peak oil," but I am not sure that this is the best description of the issue."
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8551#more

The PO debate has become highly charged over the years, which is not helpful. While PO analysts are characterized as alarmist doomers, cultists, failed predictors, psychotics, etc, we continue to consume 1,000 barrels per second of a fabulous resource which is finite. This is clearly unsustainable, yet people spend their time squabbling over who said what, and name-calling (not you, as I've said before).
The importance of the 'geological' argument is in highlighting the eventual inevitability of PO, but I believe other factors will play a much larger role, especially in the near term. Either way, surely we need to pause to examine the data and trends (re. discoveries, production & consumption) and consider the needs of our grandkids.

Returning to the examples of Romania and Indiana/Illinois (etc.), as the years progress it matters less & less what set of factors caused the peak & decline decades ago.
Unless there is a rare & miraculous turn-around, the result is pretty much the same.