Winning the War in Afghanistan

[Dayuhan]

I wonder if one can give up the ship!

Not as if it's our ship, or a ship of any great significance.

[jmm99]

of postman twit and JMM99 run in the same channel (the common sewer perhaps) on this one - and independently of each other. Love it.

First off, the US did not make a mistake to invade Astan, co-engaging with the Northern Alliance against the AQ and their Taliban allies in an unconventional war, largely limited to advisement, airstrikes and direct actions. We missed at Tora Bora - much later rectified.

Our (US) mistake was then to engage in state-building - full stop. That COA was slated to fail politically regardless of what Constitution was written and who was selected to be the government. That Karzai seemed to be the best option at the time, simply proves the fundamental flaw in the political strategy.

Nor, do I expect "gratitude" from Karzai or his government - any more than I expect any "gratitude" from the Pstan government, despite the several billion per year the US spends on Pstan (a small cost and a cheap date compared to Astan).

They know that, in the long run, the US (as a prickly nationalistic, complex democracy) is likely to side up with the other prickly nationalistic, complex democracy in South Asia - which is India. For Astan and Pstan, they can be expected to milk the milkman as long as they can.

If MG Fuller did not see the probable outcome, he is a very naive man. Pointing out the king's nudity usually leads to an unhappy ending in real life.

Regards

Mike

[Ray]

Not as if it's our ship, or a ship of any great significance.

Then whose is it?

of postman twit and JMM99 run in the same channel (the common sewer perhaps) on this one - and independently of each other. Love it.

First off, the US did not make a mistake to invade Astan, co-engaging with the Northern Alliance against the AQ and their Taliban allies in an unconventional war, largely limited to advisement, airstrikes and direct actions. We missed at Tora Bora - much later rectified.

Our (US) mistake was then to engage in state-building - full stop. That COA was slated to fail politically regardless of what Constitution was written and who was selected to be the government. That Karzai seemed to be the best option at the time, simply proves the fundamental flaw in the political strategy.

Nor, do I expect "gratitude" from Karzai or his government - any more than I expect any "gratitude" from the Pstan government, despite the several billion per year the US spends on Pstan (a small cost and a cheap date compared to Astan).

They know that, in the long run, the US (as a prickly nationalistic, complex democracy) is likely to side up with the other prickly nationalistic, complex democracy in South Asia - which is India. For Astan and Pstan, they can be expected to milk the milkman as long as they can.

If MG Fuller did not see the probable outcome, he is a very naive man. Pointing out the king's nudity usually leads to an unhappy ending in real life.

Regards

Mike

Mike,

The bottom line is that it is a Mistake.

India assisted in creating Bangladesh and she quit when the going was good.

And yet.........

the going is now not too good!

Yet, India can still handle the issue!!

[Dayuhan]

Then whose is it?

Theirs. The Afghans. For better or worse... most likely worse, but that needn't be an American problem.

[jmm99]

if the "it" in this:

The bottom line is that it is a Mistake.

refers to US involvement in Astan state-building, you'll get no argument from me.

On the other hand, Operation Enduring Freedom (viewed as part of the larger action against AQ leadership) was no mistake; had to be done; and all considered, has been a success in Astan, Pstan and in several other theaters.

Regards

Mike

[Bill Moore]

Mike,

We had this discussion and we're in agreement you need to separate the two issues, fighting AQ and nation building. Strong agreement the fight against AQ is just and over due, and nation building (at least the way we're pursuing it) is draining our national resources and showing little in the way of return.

[Wargames Mark]

...need to separate the two issues, fighting AQ and nation building. Strong agreement the fight against AQ is just and over due, and nation building (at least the way we're pursuing it) is draining our national resources and showing little in the way of return.

Hallelujah!!!

Amen!!!



Finally!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Are you available to take over the national security strategy??

[Ray]

If AQ is the problem that brought the US into Afghanistan, then has the threat of the AQ really been solved?

AQ is merely a 'front' for a whole lot of loosely knit terrorist organisation aiming at the creation of a worldwide Islamic Caliphate.

OBL had said

"...this matter isn't about any specific person and...is not about the al-Qai`dah Organization. We are the children of an Islamic Nation, with Prophet Muhammad as its leader, our Lord is one...and all the true believers [mu'mineen] are brothers. So the situation isn't like the West portrays it, that there is an "organization" with a specific name (such as "al-Qai`dah") and so on. That particular name is very old. It was born without any intention from us. Brother Abu Ubaida... created a military base to train the young men to fight against the vicious, arrogant, brutal, terrorizing Soviet empire... So this place was called "The Base" ["Al-Qai`dah"], as in a training base, so this name grew and became. We aren't separated from this nation. We are the children of a nation, and we are an inseparable part of it, and from those public demonstrations which spread from the far east, from the Philippines, to Indonesia, to Malaysia, to India, to Pakistan, reaching Mauritania... and so we discuss the conscience of this nation."

[Bill Moore]

Ray,

You're right, but I think the question should be will staying in Afghanistan facilitate resolving the problem, or make it worse by serving as a reason to motivate more and more young men to join the jihad? The problem is wide spread, and Afghanistan is no the geographical center of gravity for the movement. By staying, I mean staying with large numbers of conventional combat forces. I suspect smaller numbers of conventional forces and some SOF will stay for years to continue the struggle.

[Ray]

Bill,

I agree that there is hardly any solution in sight and hanging around will not really give any result in the near future.

My point is that the withdrawal should be such that it is an honourable one.

Yet, at the same time, since many lives have been lost in Afghanistan, some presence is left to ensure that none feel that those who came just cut and ran! The terrorists should be kept guessing and left with a Hamlet like situation - To act or not to act!

There should not be the feeling left with the terrorists and their allies that they defeated two superpowers! I believe that this sentiment is growing amongst their supporters that it is a matter of time that the second superpower will get at mauling at the hands of the soldiers of Islam!

If that feeling permeates amongst the terrorists, then they will be more embolden and will be encouraged to act in such a manner that 9/11 will only appear as a test run!

And then it will be back to Square One!

Catch 22!