Winning the War in Afghanistan

[Ray]

If AQ is the problem that brought the US into Afghanistan, then has the threat of the AQ really been solved?

AQ is merely a 'front' for a whole lot of loosely knit terrorist organisation aiming at the creation of a worldwide Islamic Caliphate.

OBL had said

"...this matter isn't about any specific person and...is not about the al-Qai`dah Organization. We are the children of an Islamic Nation, with Prophet Muhammad as its leader, our Lord is one...and all the true believers [mu'mineen] are brothers. So the situation isn't like the West portrays it, that there is an "organization" with a specific name (such as "al-Qai`dah") and so on. That particular name is very old. It was born without any intention from us. Brother Abu Ubaida... created a military base to train the young men to fight against the vicious, arrogant, brutal, terrorizing Soviet empire... So this place was called "The Base" ["Al-Qai`dah"], as in a training base, so this name grew and became. We aren't separated from this nation. We are the children of a nation, and we are an inseparable part of it, and from those public demonstrations which spread from the far east, from the Philippines, to Indonesia, to Malaysia, to India, to Pakistan, reaching Mauritania... and so we discuss the conscience of this nation."

[Bill Moore]

Ray,

You're right, but I think the question should be will staying in Afghanistan facilitate resolving the problem, or make it worse by serving as a reason to motivate more and more young men to join the jihad? The problem is wide spread, and Afghanistan is no the geographical center of gravity for the movement. By staying, I mean staying with large numbers of conventional combat forces. I suspect smaller numbers of conventional forces and some SOF will stay for years to continue the struggle.

[Ray]

Bill,

I agree that there is hardly any solution in sight and hanging around will not really give any result in the near future.

My point is that the withdrawal should be such that it is an honourable one.

Yet, at the same time, since many lives have been lost in Afghanistan, some presence is left to ensure that none feel that those who came just cut and ran! The terrorists should be kept guessing and left with a Hamlet like situation - To act or not to act!

There should not be the feeling left with the terrorists and their allies that they defeated two superpowers! I believe that this sentiment is growing amongst their supporters that it is a matter of time that the second superpower will get at mauling at the hands of the soldiers of Islam!

If that feeling permeates amongst the terrorists, then they will be more embolden and will be encouraged to act in such a manner that 9/11 will only appear as a test run!

And then it will be back to Square One!

Catch 22!

[omarali50]

Indeed, Aslam Beg is already announcing victory.
In case you ever wondered where GHQ gets its ideas: http://www.brownpundits.com/2011/11/...ns-of-history/

The problem with this posting is that it is information anyone can find by just asking Aslam Beg or reading his articles. Its not CIA-level stuff. I assume that is why it never seems relevant to most American think-tankers..

[omarali50]

this one is more confused, but may be even more enlightening: http://www.asiantribune.com/news/201...foreign-policy

[jmm99]

even the "dovish" Obama Administration will not withdraw from Astan anytime soon. From Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Michele Fluornoy, "2014 Is Not a Withdrawal Date; It's an Inflection Point." (video here):

The plan was laid out at the NATO summit in Lisbon, and what it calls for is the transition process for transferring lead responsibility for security to the Afghans, to be completed by the end of 2014, and we believe we're on track to do that.

That said, the Afghan forces at that time will be largely infantry battalions, police, and so forth. They are still going to need support from the international community in terms of enablers, such as mobility, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and so forth, so it will take some time before they have all the enablers necessary.

They're going to need some continued support, and they're also going to need some advising and assisting. And so we, and NATO also, have been negotiating a strategic partnership agreement with the Afghan government that would lay out an enduring strategic partnership far into the future.

Obviously that will have economic dimensions, diplomatic, other dimensions, but one of the dimensions on the security side is, at the invitation of the Afghan government, we will continue to have a partnership force in place that really provides advising, assisting, continued support to the Afghan National Security Forces for quite some time. So 2014 is not a withdrawal date; it's an inflection point where we put Afghans firmly in the lead and we step back into a consistently supporting role, but with much lower numbers of troops.

The US has had a strategic partnership agreement with Astan (a presidential executive agreement between Karzai and Bush II; then renewed by Obama). Any number of Republicans (including most of their present presidential candidates) are more "hawkish" about state-building in Astan than Ms Fluornoy.

My own personal view is that the focus (of both Democratic and Republican state-building) has been primarily one of dealing either militarily and / or diplomatically with the local AQ "affiliate" (the Taliban), rather than that part of the primary problem (AQ leadership) which resides in Astan and Pstan. To that extent, I agree with Bob Jones that we chase after local insurgents too much.

Both the Democratic and Republican power elites disagree with me since my belief is that the US has more than performed its reasonable obligations under the current strategic partnership agreement - and pulling the plug on state-building is overdue.

Regards

Mike

[Ray]

JMM,

Thanks.

If disagreeing with you means being elected to the Congress, be it as a Republican or Democrat, then I presume I am elected.

State building is important. It will never be ideal, but like it or not, the locals do appreciate anything that is done by anyone to improve their life. However, what matters is that it does not impinge on their customs, traditions or religion. That is why the Indians, though initially attacked by the Talibans from Pakistan, were not attacked thereafter and could complete the 215-km long Delaram-Zaranj highway and hand it over to Afghanistan.

It is the same revulsion as the West feels over the 'burqa' swarming their neighbourhood! It is alien and unacceptable. Likewise, is the feeling when local customs, traditions and religious practices are violated in countries where the West is sincerely wanting to help!