On the avoidance of small wars

[Dayuhan]

Dayuhan, about the special case: I don't think that a trade relationship in which China exports more than it imports (and gets paper or bits and bytes to make of for the difference) is so indispensable for China as many people in the U.S. appear to think.

The paper, bits and bytes are extremely useful to the Chinese, despite their rather hypothetical nature: they can be passed on to folks in the Middle East and Africa in return for oil, to folks in Australia for iron, etc etc.

The Chinese are moving toward strengthening their domestic consumption/demand. Additionally, most of their economic growth is afaik primarily in their construction sector and other domestic investments, not in export to the U.S..

A large percentage of their growth at this point is in construction that's increasingly speculative in nature, which is a very big problem for them, though a different issue. While they are strengthening domestic consumption, it has a long, long way to go. They remain very reliant on exports and removal of any major export market would be a real problem for them, especially if it were removed through a conflict that threatened to disrupt trade with other markets as well.

About the general issue: I've heard and read the reference to economic relations as war inhibitor very often and it looks overstated to me. It's not reliable as you write and probably not even powerful. The public perception of it appears to be overstated, and taking peace for granted is not a wise move.

I don't recall saying that it was powerful, reliable, or even quantifiable, only that it exists. I would certainly not advise anyone to take peace for granted.

We gotta work for peace continually, for there's a beast in many if not all of us (at least those with balls), it's pretty primitive and inclined to use force.

Agreed. However, we can empirically verify that we have more peace than ever before. That would suggest that we are either working more effectively at keeping peace (though I see little evidence of that) or circumstances have evolved that are more conducive to peace. If the latter, we'd want to keep track of those various circumstances and try to help them keep evolving. Obviously there is no single circumstance that assures peace, but that doesn't mean we can't make efforts to expand and continue evolutionary trends that favor peace, no matter how peripherally, over those that do not.