'Nigeria: the context for violence' (2006-2013)

[Misifus]

It gets even more complicated when the Nigerian military gets involved in this business.

But of course! The Nigerian navy seems to have been involved in the MT African Pride case. I remember it well.

Crude Oil destroyed Nigeria. Nigeria was a much better run place before the discovery of crude oil (so my dad tells me). We had better institutions and better governance then.

You had British institutions and governance back then. By the end of the 70's that governance model had decayed. Nevertheless, it was and is Nigerians doing this to each other in terms of looting the oil patrimony. Other nations with oil have managed, though there seems to be a trend that colonial legacy countries mismanage their oil patrimony as do most countries in the developing world. Seems also to be true with other mineral patrimony like diamonds in Angola. In any case, Nigeria needs to work this out for itself.

Someone tells me that the increasing sophistication in pipeline disruption activities is due to the presence of a large number of unemployed Petroleum Engineering / Petroleum Technology graduates.

That's a new one to me. I would say it is more than likely due to displaced oilfield workers, not petroleum engineers.

[KingJaja]

The photo you showed in an earlier post depicting the street executions by police in 2009 are in a youtube video. I am sure you have seen it. It was absolutely detestable, but no action against the police and that action, as you say, flamed the hatred. USA military action would do the same.

The situation in Nigeria is serious, but there is not short-term fix.

The policemen responsible for that act have actually been apprehended, but that was only after Boko Haram went on a rampage.

That is the Nigerian Police Force's usual modus operandi, once they get tired of keeping you in detention, they size you up (do you have rich or influential relatives?), if you don't they simply take you outside, shoot you and claim you are an "armed robbery suspect".

In many parts of Nigeria, the military has a similar reputation. So much innocent blood was split by the Nigerian military in the Niger Delta. I recall how they leveled an entire village (Odi), laying waste to anything alive. We weren't surprised when the Niger Delta erupted.

Are these the people the US military want to make friends with?

I can understand America's realpolitik rationale for forging close ties with the Nigerian military. The expectation is that Nigeria is likely to grow in strategic importance and the bonds formed by captains and majors from both armies will be useful in promoting American interests in the future.

But things could turn out much differently, and all those bonds could count for nothing. The most important lesson from the Arab Spring is that power still lies with the people, not the elite, not the military.

[Stan]

Are these the people the US military want to make friends with?

Jaja,
Please at least acknowledge the fact that, similar to the Nigerian system, American soldiers do not dictate who they will train with.

I think you've done a very good job and opened our eyes to your situation.

I can understand America's realpolitik rationale for forging close ties with the Nigerian military. The expectation is that Nigeria is likely to grow in strategic importance and the bonds formed by captains and majors from both armies will be useful in promoting American interests in the future.

Nigeria is already strategically significant for many more reasons that some oil pumper's dream of getting rich. And yes, to some extent such programs were intentionally designed to do several things, but among the most important is exposure. US exposure being paramount. Comes with the territory in almost every nation visited. Take advantage of being on stage and get the message out.

I'm looking over AFRICOM's dialog box and see nothing negative. You have some great insight and detailed thoughts, but yet, I don't see your comments at AFRICOM. Why is that ?

But things could turn out much differently, and all those bonds could count for nothing. The most important lesson from the Arab Spring is that power still lies with the people, not the elite, not the military.

Indeed correct. There are countless examples where this system failed and we tried to tell the dictators to belly up or get out. That didn't work very well and I have strange memories walking around K-town then and now.

So, we get the message out and ask questions. Disappointment when we don't win immediately? Certainly, but it beats the heck out of ranting to a bunch of retired US and Foreign Military who can't change your plight.

[KingJaja]

I'm looking over AFRICOM's dialog box and see nothing negative. You have some great insight and detailed thoughts, but yet, I don't see your comments at AFRICOM. Why is that ?

Do you mean at the AFRICOM site? Could you give me the link.

[Stan]

Do you mean at the AFRICOM site? Could you give me the link.

Yep, and the site is... be careful what you wish for bro..

http://www.africom.mil/

EDIT: I look forward to your responses tomorrow. Be slightly diplomatic Please !

[KingJaja]

Okay, give me time to organise my thoughts!

On a slightly tangential note, Nigeria has an urgent and serious problem with youth unemployment, so serious that the senior government officials are using alarmist language.

Nigerian youths, especially the unemployed ones, have lost confidence in government, Minister of Youth Development Bolaji Abdullahi has said.

Speaking Tuesday in Abuja at a media briefing on President Goodluck Jonathan's 100 days in office, the minister said, "the youth are angry with the government and may explode any moment from now because 41.6 per cent of them are jobless".

"Most Nigerian youths do not want to identify themselves with the country because they don't have any hope of surviving in it", he added.

The minister, who described youth unemployment in Nigeria as a ticking time bomb that could explode any time soon, maintained that the condition that made youth in the United Kingdom and some Arab countries revolt was not as bad as what Nigerian youth are going through now.

Abdullah urged government at all levels to create jobs to restore the lost confidence in the youth.

He said, "Mere giving 10,000 or 20,000 to a Nigerian youth to start a business cannot help, but imparting skill is what would do the magic. Nigerian youths don't trust the government any longer. We held a twitter conference some days ago where we met with many Nigerian youths. While some of them mentioned their plights, the reactions from a lot of them showed that they don't have confidence in government. They said what we were doing (the twitter conference) was a PR stunt".

How do we create economic opportunities for our young people? Who can help us do that?

[Stan]

I wish I had a better answer for you herein, but my Google skills are slightly less than some seem to think.

I am told that the NEPAD program from UNICEF might give you some direction.

I'd also like to think that our friend in SA has some better insight.

JMA, are you sleeping already mate ?

[KingJaja]

I wish I had a better answer for you herein, but my Google skills are slightly less than some seem to think.

I am told that the NEPAD program from UNICEF might give you some direction.

I'd also like to think that our friend in SA has some better insight.

JMA, are you sleeping already mate ?

Google won't supply the answer to my question! My question was rhetorical.

NEPAD, MCC and AGOA are mere buzzwords, well intentioned, but of little significance. Africa has business potential, but it requires a high-level of tolerance for risk - that leaves us with the Chinese (primarily) and the Indians.

In simple words, if anyone has the capacity to create employment in a wide range of sectors and keep African youth away from trouble, its the Chinese. (you Westerners are almost exclusively limited to the Oil and Gas business).

(It is logical: they are soon going to face a demographic challenge and Africa offers them a large market and potentially, a cheap source of labour).

Unfortunately, the Chinese have issues and (after the fall of the Soviet Union and the death of Osama Bin Laden), they are now enemy number 1. The truth is that there is no way the US can fulfill its long term objectives in Africa without reaching an accommodation with the Chinese.

P.S: The AFRICOM dialogue site is terrible. I went there and immediately lost my enthusiasm. Who designed that thing?

[Dayuhan]

In simple words, if anyone has the capacity to create employment in a wide range of sectors and keep African youth away from trouble, its the Chinese. (you Westerners are almost exclusively limited to the Oil and Gas business).

The number of Chinese workers in Africa is also growing rapidly, and many of them work in jobs and business that could be done by local people. I've read that in East Africa Chinese investors are buying up farmland and bringing in Chinese labor to work it, a policy that seems certain to cause trouble.

Youth unemployment is a problem across the developing world, and nobody has come up with an easy answer or a way to address youth unemployment as anything other than a part of the larger (and very complicated) problem of overall economic development. Foreign investment can play a role, but it's not the answer in itself. Skills training is not a bad thing but it won't help unless there's significant economic demand for the skills. Investment in industry and agriculture in areas where it's most needed is often impossible without prior investment in infrastructure.

Large-scale foreign investment, like what the Chinese are pursuing now in many parts of Africa, often appears attractive in the early phases, when the net transfer of money and resources is inbound. As the projects mature and the net transfer of resources starts flowing in the opposite direction (as it is clearly intended to do - the Chinese are not in this for charity) they may start to seem less appealing and less beneficial. That's the time you'd expect trouble to start. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see the Chinese eventually propping up unpopular governments that they've made long-term deals with, sending military equipment, advisers, and eventually stepping into the small war arena.

[KingJaja]

Chinese activity in Africa is a little bit more nuanced than the one-dimensional picture presented in Western media.

I have actually worked with the Chinese, and while they are not up to par with West, there are many Chinese companies, some good and some bad. They are not monolithic.

What I've learned is that they really want to do business here and they see Africa as a land of opportunity (not as a hardship posting like most Westerners). So they tend to be more enthusiastic and more tolerant of risk.

The behaviour of Chinese companies depends on what the host government allows. A classical example is Zambia under Michael Sata, his predecessor allowed the Chinese to get away with a lot, but he is having none of that.

As African governments begin to appreciate the relationship between youth unemployment and national security (trust me it will happen), the Chinese will have to adapt. They will adapt, not because they want to, but because they have to. For example, no Chinese firm can get away with not employing locals in the Niger Delta - since non-compliance could potentially lead to the risk of injury or even death.

[Dayuhan]

Chinese activity in Africa is a little bit more nuanced than the one-dimensional picture presented in Western media.

Everything is more nuanced than what's portrayed in the Western media... though the Asian media (with which I spend a fair bit of time) are no better, and I suppose African media have their own flaws.

I have actually worked with the Chinese, and while they are not up to par with West, there are many Chinese companies, some good and some bad. They are not monolithic.

Nobody is monolithic, not even Americans. It's often the case, though, that bad stories travel farther and faster and are repeated and exaggerated more than good ones.

What I've learned is that they really want to do business here and they see Africa as a land of opportunity (not as a hardship posting like most Westerners). So they tend to be more enthusiastic and more tolerant of risk.

The behaviour of Chinese companies depends on what the host government allows. A classical example is Zambia under Michael Sata, his predecessor allowed the Chinese to get away with a lot, but he is having none of that.

Aren't the companies just part of the Chinese presence? My personal observation is brief and limited to a few points in the east, but from that and a fair number of accounts (many not from the western media) I get the impression that there's an enormous street-level presence as well, with Chinese merchants coming to dominate commerce some areas. That can be inflammatory in any number of ways... certainly it has been in SE Asia.

There are things we see in Asia; I wonder how many are repeated there.

Cheap Chinese goods undersell locally produced items, particularly clothing and basic manufactures like cooking pots, plastic basins, all kinds of other other simple common household goods, pushing small local enterprises out of business.

Chinese shopowners often have access to more capital than local equivalents, allowing them to quickly dominate. Local businessmen find it difficult to compete and may close, putting additional pressure on an already fragile middle class.

Large numbers of what first appear to be small Chinese commercial enterprises are often linked, allowing them to manipulate prices and supplies. Sometimes this gets really overt. Prices may drop in a local area, forcing a locally owned competitor out of business, or strange "shortages" - like a sudden absence of cement in the middle of building season - may suddenly force prices up.

There's often a perception (often accurate) that Chinese merchants are paying police or regulators, allowing them free rein in exploiting locals.

Exploitive money-lending rackets emerge in many places, dominated by the Chinese (though Indians often have a hand in those rackets as well, in SE Asia).

Have these situations appeared much in your experience?

This sort of thing is actually more likely to spark local resentment than corporate malfeasance, which is often less visible and less immediate. If things move in this direction - and it would surprise me if they didn't - it would be reasonable to expect that sooner or later anti-Chinese riots might break out in some locations. Have to wonder what the response would be.

All of that is of course very speculative, and largely based on observations of commercial practice in other environments. I will be interested to see what actually happens in Africa. I'd guess, though, that anyone who expects Chinese investment to be the salvation of Africa is likely to be disappointed.

[KingJaja]

Dayuhan,

The Chinese are quite new here and Nigerians are very aggressive business people (unlike most other Africans). So I haven't seen many examples of Nigerian businesses losing to the Chinese (the decline of the Nigerian Textile Industry is due to poor infrastructure and inadequate electricity supply - issues that are yet to be resolved today).

What I tend to see are collaborations between Nigerian business men and the Chinese. For e.g. this bus/vehicle factory in Eastern Nigeria

[KingJaja]

Snippets from an article, confirms what I've always suspected - Boko Haram enjoys widespread sympathy in Northern Nigeria.

But last Thursday, Ms. Maryln Ogar, spokesperson of the State Security Service, SSS, said the security agencies have been unfairly criticised. Speaking on a morning programme on the Lagos-based Channels Television, Ogar argued that a slice of the blame should go to the residents, some of whom she claimed clapped for Boko Haram members as they shot at policemen. She added that residents also have a tendency to hoard information that could help nip such occurrences in the bud.

Source: http://thenewsafrica.com/2011/11/14/the-yobe-massacre/

[Dayuhan]

Dayuhan,

The Chinese are quite new here and Nigerians are very aggressive business people (unlike most other Africans). So I haven't seen many examples of Nigerian businesses losing to the Chinese (the decline of the Nigerian Textile Industry is due to poor infrastructure and inadequate electricity supply - issues that are yet to be resolved today).

What I tend to see are collaborations between Nigerian business men and the Chinese. For e.g. this bus/vehicle factory in Eastern Nigeria

Dissenting voice:

http://allafrica.com/stories/201003110537.html

Nigeria: China's Trade Offensive Hurts Local Industry

Chinas' face has suddenly become so ubiquitous in Nigeria's major commercial cities with sub-standard textiles, machinery and auto-parts being the most prominent of the Chinese products being dumped in Africa's biggest market under a relationship that is heavily-tilted in favour of the Asian economic superpower....

...Bashir Borodo who heads Nigeria's Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), describes the Chinese offensive as "disastrous."

"They have done it not only in Nigeria but in other countries also," he told Daily Trust.

That is not of course the last word, and I confess to having used Google. There's an abundance of articles from Nigeria, many of which involve ranting at the proliferation of Chinese textiles:

Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) and Nigerian Textile Manufacturers Association (NTMA), has raised alarm over the systematic and deliberate destruction of the Nigerian textile industry and economy by unscrupulous Chinese their textile exporters and called on the Federal government to engage the Chinese government over the matter.

It may very well be true, as you say, that the decline of the Nigerian textile industry is due primarily to other factors. Certainly that makes sense. But in these matters perception, as you've said before, is often more important than truth. How is the decline generally perceived? If the perception of Chinese merchandise undercutting local business becomes widespread, the truth of the matter may be much less important than the perception.

I'm curious... how much Chinese presence do you have in street-level retail trade? Do you have Chinese-owned hardware stores, building supply, department stores, supermarkets? In other places these businesses constitute a relatively small percentage of overall Chinese investment, but because they are very visible and create the impression of Chinese encroachment in the local economy, they tend to be very controversial.

[KingJaja]

It may very well be true, as you say, that the decline of the Nigerian textile industry is due primarily to other factors. Certainly that makes sense. But in these matters perception, as you've said before, is often more important than truth. How is the decline generally perceived? If the perception of Chinese merchandise undercutting local business becomes widespread, the truth of the matter may be much less important than the perception.

I'm curious... how much Chinese presence do you have in street-level retail trade? Do you have Chinese-owned hardware stores, building supply, department stores, supermarkets? In other places these businesses constitute a relatively small percentage of overall Chinese investment, but because they are very visible and create the impression of Chinese encroachment in the local economy, they tend to be very controversial.

Nigeria produces only about 4,000MW of electricity on a good day, its transportation networks are terrible and Nigeria has been steadily de-industrialising since Babangida introduced the World Bank / IMF mandated structural adjustment programs in 1985. The Chinese did not create these barriers to manufacturing.

I am not suggesting that the Chinese are not making life difficult for Nigerian manufacturers, but there is a lot more to that than meets the eye

I have Chinese neighbours and there is a Chinese market near my house. Commercial activities in Nigeria are still dominated by the Indians, Lebanese and Igbo.

In Lagos, the Chinese presence is visible, but it is not overwhelming - anyway, there is so much going on in Lagos that sometimes it is difficult to stand out.

[Dayuhan]

Nigeria produces only about 4,000MW of electricity on a good day, its transportation networks are terrible and Nigeria has been steadily de-industrialising since Babangida introduced the World Bank / IMF mandated structural adjustment programs in 1985. The Chinese did not create these barriers to manufacturing.

I am not suggesting that the Chinese are not making life difficult for Nigerian manufacturers, but there is a lot more to that than meets the eye

I understand this and it makes sense to me. Again, though, perceptions may be more important than reality. Just as politicians use the AFRICOM bogeyman to distract attention from their own inadequacies, might they not also try to deflect the anger of those unemployed youths onto the Chinese, rather than accepting and addressing their own responsibility for the problem? It sounds like a situation ripe for exploitation and with an easy scapegoat at hand.

[Misifus]

What happened to the Terror & Islam intended topic of this thread?

Nevertheless, the below comments from Dayuhan are a good sidebar, so I will add

The number of Chinese workers in Africa is also growing rapidly, and many of them work in jobs and business that could be done by local people.

This is true. There are however, increasing policies that provide for "Local Content" in some African countries. Examples that I personally know of (1) all foreign oil companies in Nigeria are required to increase the local content of new and ongoing projects. The Local Content program in Nigeria has met with some success, like ExxonMobil's Erha project, but this is a challenge in the oil & gas sector to develop qualified people and vendors. (2) In Angola, foreign oilfield workers get "blue-stamped" on their passports. This means after three years their passports get a stamp that allows for only one more work visa renewal. After that, the foreign worker cannot come back. The intent is that the foreign oil company train a local to be the replacement for the foreign worker. It is a challenge to train locals as replacements. So visa waivers are often given. These types of programs have been suspended before when platforms start blowing up and stuff.

I've read that in East Africa Chinese investors are buying up farmland and bringing in Chinese labor to work it, a policy that seems certain to cause trouble.

Okay, but you know a place like Angola could use a program like this. Angola had a wonderful agricultural industry. Their coffee industry alone was like the 3rd most productive in the world rivaling Brazil and Colombia. They were a net exporter of agricultural goods. Then come the wars. The business does not resurrect after the wars end (recent) and there are no indications that it ever will resurrect. Mines are of course a problem, but even if that were not the case, agriculture is something that holds little interest to the people and government other than for subsistence and local need. One can grow anything in Angola. It should be a net food exporter. Ships leave Angolan ports empty, unless they are oil tankers.

Large-scale foreign investment, like what the Chinese are pursuing now in many parts of Africa, often appears attractive in the early phases, when the net transfer of money and resources is inbound. As the projects mature and the net transfer of resources starts flowing in the opposite direction (as it is clearly intended to do - the Chinese are not in this for charity) they may start to seem less appealing and less beneficial. That's the time you'd expect trouble to start. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see the Chinese eventually propping up unpopular governments that they've made long-term deals with, sending military equipment, advisers, and eventually stepping into the small war arena.

That may happen. China is striking some unusual deals in Africa. An example I know of is the rebuilding of the Benguela-Belize railroad in Angola. Due to transparency requirements, Angola was unable to secure credit form Western resources to rebuild this railroad. The Chinese struck a deal with Angola whereby they would rebuild the railroad for 100,000 barrels a day of crude oil per day. Labor-wise, it cost China almost nothing. They simply brought in prison labor from China. The prisoners came in by ship. We could see the ships unloading them in Luanda where they were put in these outdoor pens hastily put up by the docks. Buses then came and picked them up and took them out to the work sites/camps.

[KingJaja]

I understand this and it makes sense to me. Again, though, perceptions may be more important than reality. Just as politicians use the AFRICOM bogeyman to distract attention from their own inadequacies, might they not also try to deflect the anger of those unemployed youths onto the Chinese, rather than accepting and addressing their own responsibility for the problem? It sounds like a situation ripe for exploitation and with an easy scapegoat at hand.

Nigerian politicians don't blame the Chinese bogeyman. China doesn't loom large in Nigeria like Zambia. Nigerians are more likely to blame the Lebanese and Indians before they get to the Chinese.

There was a lot of noise made about Bharti Airtel's sacking of a few thousand Nigerian workers. I would suggest that the Indians and Lebanese have an even worse reputation here, because they've been around longer and have more entrenched business interests.

A certain segment of the business community is quite happy with the Chinese. I did consulting work for the largest Cement factory in Nigeria (located in Central Nigeria). The factory is owned by a Nigerian billionaire and the plant infrastructure was put in place by Sinochem (at a much lower cost than a Western firm) and management and technical expertise was provided by Indians (at lower cost than Westerners). My landlord makes a lot of money importing building materials (glass and doors) from the Chinese.

The Chinese are building a 16,500 hectare free trade zone in the Lekki area and they are one of the major contractors on the Lagos light rail project. They are certainly very dynamic participants.

[Chowing]

That is the Nigerian Police Force's usual modus operandi, once they get tired of keeping you in detention, they size you up (do you have rich or influential relatives?), if you don't they simply take you outside, shoot you and claim you are an "armed robbery suspect".

In many parts of Nigeria, the military has a similar reputation. .....So much innocent blood was split by the Nigerian military in the Niger Delta. I recall how they leveled an entire village (Odi), laying waste to anything alive. We weren't surprised when the Niger Delta erupted.

Are these the people the US military want to make friends with?

The military and police have inflamed the situation and that has led to the terrible violence that is happening almost weekly.

I have read that some of the military are actually sympathetic with Boko Haram's concerns.

[Chowing]

NEPAD, MCC and AGOA are mere buzzwords, well intentioned, but of little significance. Africa has business potential, but it requires a high-level of tolerance for risk - that leaves us with the Chinese (primarily) and the Indians.

In simple words, if anyone has the capacity to create employment in a wide range of sectors and keep African youth away from trouble, its the Chinese. (you Westerners are almost exclusively limited to the Oil and Gas business).

I have seen several sites ( I will look them up if you wish) that are popping up trying to match investors with Africans who have new product ideas, products that address everyday needs in Africa. I do not think this is the only answer, but based on my experience I do not see any hope in granting funds to economic kingpins nor government officials. In my opinion, it is the opinion of a non-African, that Africa needs some young entrepreneurs. As you say, one would have to have a tolerance for risk. That is exactly what Joint Venture angels are used to.