Afghanistan is an intriguing land to fly over and look down upon.

I think this concept is an important one as it highlights how many smart, capable, professionals sent to Afghanistan see the problem that they are attempting to resolve. They see the insurgency in Afghanistan as being caused by the insurgents, and that if we simply clear the critical spaces of insurgents, or separate the insurgents from the populace (whatever that means), or in this case presumably convert the spaces they operate withing to have less obstacles to our maneuver or cover to hide behind?

But insurgents don't cause insurgency any more than a hacking cough causes the flu. They are an obvious, painful symptom of the disease, but they are not the disease, they are not the cause, and the defeat of them is no more the cure than suppression of that afore mentioned annoying cough.

Like the cough, however, the presence of insurgents is a powerful indicator that an unhealthy situation exists that must be dealt with properly, as left alone it could progress until it threatens the life of the "patient", which in this case is the affected nation state (regardless of how "primitive" it may seem compared to the ones we all live in, the factors of human nature and human dynamics that insurgency is shaped by are largely constant in humans everywhere).

Most Afghan insurgents come from families and tribes and ethnic groups that are excluded from full participation in the economic and political aspects of their own country. Most come from families and tribes and ethnic groups that were included in this under the Taliban, but have become excluded as US and foreign action shifted the balance of power over to the Northern Alliance, and then dedicated itself to preserving that artificial shift.

In a heavily patronage society, where concepts of loyalty and revenge burn deep, such a shift forced upon one is something that one cannot simply ignore. It is more than just a desire for power, or wealth; it is a duty of dignity and honor to resist.

In a perfect world Karzai and the Northern Alliance would demand that ISAF stop perpetuating this unsustainable situation with our blood and treasure and allow them to shred their current constitution that codifies this monopoly of Northern Alliance governance and that turns traditional Afghan patronage into a massive Ponzi scheme that enriches them unfairly and denies the people at the local level of the traditional benefits of Afghan-style governance. They would conduct a massive Loya Jirga to bring all Afghans into fair competition for power and influence and would craft a new constitution designed to create trust between these parties who have no natural reason to trust each other. The kind of trust necessary for any such diverse populace to advance.

But this is not a perfect world. Karzai and the rest of the Northern Alliance prefer the low level violence and the artificial situation that ISAF provides. That is good enough for them. When one knows they are illegitimately in power, a reliance on foreign protection and endless insurgency are success.

So no, the roots of this conflict are not in the valleys of the Helmand, they are in the halls of Kabul and Washington. Mostly due to well-intended ignorance by most, but guided by very intentional self-serving objectives by others.