Gloomy US intelligence assessment coming or Let's hear from the spies

[Surferbeetle]

But what I cannot fathom, is why this community refuses to evolve? Why it refuses to shift focus from the analysis of the symptoms of the problems we face (detailed analysis of various "terrorist" organizations [most of which are actually nationalist insurgent organizations - but why quibble over a person's purpose for action?], the individuals in these organizations, who they talk to, where they sleep, who they call, etc, etc) while completely ignoring analysis of the root causes of this "threat" that lie primarily within the political, policy, operational and tactical approaches of the governments that are being challenged?

This is not state on state warfare that our intel community is trained, organized, and doctrinally equipped for. This is conflict between elements of various populaces and their government. This, for the West, is a conflict between various non-state actors who tap into these nationalist dynamics for all of their manpower, financing and sanctuary; and Western countries whose historic approaches to foreign policy are perceived as a major contributor to the problems between governments and populaces within these various states.

The short answer is system capture by the idea of doing things.

Everybody is busy doing things and myopically focused on a few bits of the the whole. Few are thinking about the whole. Observations of the whole are continually taken by the system, but there is no mechanism which values and integrates these observations.

We need to purchase less 'toys', train our folks better, have mechanisms to integrate the observations and experience of our whole of government partners and our folks who walk the ground, get our staff folk out from behind monitors and away from the air conditioners/heaters, and decentralize decision making....in short the business model needs to change.

Leviathan and sys admin force is a solution whose time is coming.

http://www.ted.com/talks/thomas_barn...for_peace.html

The reality today however, is that the system has not yet endured enough trauma to change the business model.

Even LTG Flynn's paper of a couple years ago that created such a stir by suggesting that we needed to analyze the entire populace and not just the combatant segment of the populace missed the main point. It still missed the point that it is the integration and interaction of government and the populace, not the "enemy" and the populace, that holds the keys to stability. Where is the analysis of GIRoA officials and their links to the segments of the populace that are either supportive or in rebellion? Where is the analysis of what former officials and their linkages that were dispossessed of power, wealth and influence by our efforts to tip the scales against them?

See my answer above...

...and speaking of myopia, please reconsider your (unbreakable?) mental link/chain between governance and 'insurgency'. Take a walk on the wild side and consider other possibilities. A number of us have mentioned this to you a couple of times

Strong Societies and Weak States by Joel S. Migdal 978-0-691-01073-1

Seriously, relook the link/chain that you have forged for yourself.