Quote Originally Posted by Bob's World View Post
We forced the latest swing, and not patronage is firmly in the hands of the Northern Alliance Friends and Families plan.
Ok, you bring this point up a lot. Let's examine it. What was the alternative? It was the Northern Alliance along with Royalist and various other Pashtuns that helped us to overthrow the Taliban. What were we supposed to back in 2002 - say "thanks, now sod off?" What do you think would have happened? What was the viable alternative?

It used to be that Afghanistan's minorities (Tajiks, Hazara, Uzbeks) could live with a soft Pashtun dominion, but the Taliban changed all that. The simple fact is that they would not have demobilized their militias if they had not been given a powerful stake the government. It's possible a more decentralized government structure would have assuaged their fears while creating better governance from the Pashtun perspectives, but that wasn't a certainty IMO. The analytical error we made, I think, was that we assumed most Pashtuns would be happy because Karzai and some others in the government (ie. Royalists) were Pashtun.

I do not know if it is possible to regulate a reconciled form of patronage that breaks up this ageless system and divides power wealth and influence more equitably across the populace. Perhaps, but only if we recognize that this is critical and that must be forced on Karzai and the Northern Alliance, as it is not in their interest lead reform and give up what they hold now by both might and right.
Force Karzai? With what leverage?

I have not seen any general or any Ambassador see this for the problem it is and take it on.
Well, they've been trying to "force Karzai" to be a good guy for a long time now, which is what you seem to advocate. Maybe we can keep trying to force the Pakistani's to play nice too - that's worked equally well.

2. External manipulations, British, Russian, US, etc. The Durand line is much like the line dividing North and South Vietnam. Westerners see these lines as real, legal and definitive. For the affected populaces they were and are largely moot.
That is only true for those who live near the border. For almost everyone else in Pakistan and Afghanistan the border dispute is important and the border is real.

Funny you don't mention Pakistan when talking of external manipulation. When it comes to Afghanistan, they are the masters. Your ideas on what we should do in Afghanistan seem to assume no interference from Pakistan and other outside powers.

We'd do well to ignore the Durand line for purposes of defining the insurgency. This really is only a factor if one is out looking for threats to defeat. The brand of COIN I promote is primarily waged in Kabul and focused on tearing down the mechanisms of governance that are at the causal roots of the insurgency. Do that well and the good effects will flow across the Durand line as if it is not there (and for COIN and insurgency it is not there)
You think the Pakistanis might have something to say and do about that? What you've described here is Pakistan's greatest fear - another schism with the bulk of Pashtun and Baloch lands ceded to Afghanistan. Once Pakistani gets a whiff that this is the new US policy, they will take action and this policy will fail.

But again, if one focuses on fixing government, these lines become far less important than when one is focused on defeating threats.
Great, please operationalize "fixing government."

I'd love to see Crocker and Allen make a full-spectrum reconciliation and follow-on constitutional loya jirga the condition precedent to all development and any hope of ISAF leaving any presence there to help out. Unless we are willing to walk away we will remain a patsy of the Northern Alliance, filling their pockets and protecting there status at the top of the patronage heap.
What is a "full-spectrum" reconciliation and how can Crocker and Allen "make" it? What makes you think another constitutional Loya Jirga will result in a better outcome than the last one? In other words, do you really think the current power brokers would submit to such a process without knowing the outcome first? And if they know the outcome is going to be a reduction in their power then it seems to me they will either game the system or refuse to participate.

The problem is akin to trying to get an alcoholic to quit drinking. There's simply not a lot we can do that will actually work.