Somalia: not piracy catch all thread

[Chowing]

The conventional wisdom is that the US should provide very public humanitarian assistance in the hopes that the populous will appreciate what the US is doing for them.

However, in the current situation in Mogadishu and the south is that aid distribution centers have been shut down. So, the conventional wisdom is not in touch with reality on the ground at present.

.. Our insistence on propping up the TFG despite its inability to do much more than govern much more than most of Mogadishu means that the key to success will be contingent on actually maintaining a lower profile.

I agree, the US and Europeans need to stay far far in the background.

Somalis, particularly in the South where Al-Shabaab is strongest are already suspicious of foreign presence.

The drone flying overhead and ocassion dropping a bomb only instills more hatred and suspicion.

Al-Shabaab is really not terribly popular with local Somalis either but the TFG is even less so, or at the very least is incapable of doing anything to help Somalis who find themselves at the mercy of Al-Shabaab thugs.

The US and the Europeans for that matter do a terrible job of researching and understanding the local culture and the attitudes and preferences of the people. Or, it could be worse. It could be they do not even care what the locals think. They have their own agenda. I tend to think it is a little of each.

Ideally what the US should do if it really wants to help is to quietly distance itself from the TFG and quietly work through intermediaries to provide support to local institutions and even militias who are opposed to Al-Shabaab. The anti-Al-Shabaab effort must have an entirely Somali.

There is a lot aid agencies and other NGO's can do if they are given the freedom to do so. What we should be entering into is a new age in which aid agencies can no longer afford to remain neutral. Their countries of origin, supporters and constituents may require them to take sides. Not a good time ahead for such agencies. They often find themselves sitting ducks, and they are beginning to pay for it in Somalia, as well as in the Sahel at the hands of AQIM.

Regional and clan tensions are raising in the East and the Horn of Africa. I wrote about it recently on by blog. www.terrorisminafrica.com