Posted by Jack_Gander,

In 2008, former KGB intelligence analyst Igor Panarin predicted the United States would collapse in 2010. As a 30 year veteran of the Russian intelligence service, he based his conclusions on three primary factors: mass migration, economic decline and moral degradation. Conducting this type of strategic analysis is not unique to the KGB and it is routinely performed by the US Intelligence Community on foreign governments.
I don't lightly dismiss analysis of our country conducted by a foreign intelligence service, because I suspect in some cases they're better equipped to exam the situation objectively and let the facts speak for themselves. The KGB allegedly always predicted who the winner of our presidential elections would be. That wouldn't surprise me if true, because I think we understand enemy networks better than friendly networks. However, I don't see migration as a threat, and moral degradation to a communist is capitalism (the Marxists have been waiting for capitalism to collapse on itself for over a 100 years now, and someday they may be right, but I don't see it in the immediate future), and economic decline can cause a nation to collapse, but normally it just weakens it, and in our case I suspect we'll see a return to economic highs again.

There is no greater threat to US national security than the collapse of the constitutional form of government or some form of violent, revolutionary movement within the United States. As Dr. Jeffery Sachs of Columbia University noted, “The U.S. is even more extreme [than London]. We have a more broken and serious underclass right now -we have a pressure cooker in the United States. It hasn't exploded that way, but it is a real pressure cooker.” This is certainly not a pleasant topic to discuss but the impacts would be far more devastating than an early withdrawal from Afghanistan or a WMD attack on a major city.
Actually an internal revolution within the U.S. may be the only existential threat, and agreed it is a much greater threat than downsizing in Afganistan, but how probable is it? The President described economic disparity has the greatest challenge of our time. I think that is what Dr. Sachs is referring to, and I tend to agree with that assessment. I can't recall any government in recent history (the last 50 years or so) that saw a revolution forming, most states stay in denial as long as possible.

Congress is often referred to as the “broken branch” and the current debate is whether this session of Congress is the most broken in our nation’s history. Public opinion polls seem to bear this fact out. Political infighting and a focus on reelection efforts seem to trump US national interests. Unfortunately under our two party system and without term limits, few options for realistic governance reform exists.
It can be argued that what we're seeing is a functional democracy, but with the exception of threatening to cut DOD spending, how this really impacted our national security? Seems a little like hyperbole to me at this point.

Emerging concepts of modern warfare: Unconventional Warfare, Hybrid Warfare, and 4GW each include criminal activity as a component of the theory. Does the hubris of the national security community assume these types of warfare cannot or will not be practiced on US soil? Perhaps even conducted by US citizens?

There are several functional areas that I would further develop into to an indicator list intended to warn national leadership of unfavorable conditions regarding US Internal Security:
• Civil Disturbances
• Illegal Immigration
• Transnational Organized Crime
• Radicalization
• US Criminal Justice System
Most of these theories have been around at a couple of decades, and UW has been around forever. I agree that many don't consider the possibility of these forms of warfare being waged within the U.S., but I think it is happening all the time at a low level. As for your indicators, I can agree with the first four, but did you intend when you posted the "U.S. Criminal Justice system" as an indicator?

Each of these issues poses a national security concern, yet because of their political sensitivities, they are often ignored by the national security community. Many feel because the US is a democracy these issues will simply resolve themselves through the democratic process. However I have seen no significant effort or political will to address these issues over the past several decades and each appears to get worse with time.

I pose the following questions to members of the council:
• Are these domestic issues national security concerns? (use whatever definition of national security you prefer)
The short answer is no, I think we have internal security concerns, but not from immigration, political polarization, etc.

• Will these issues eventually be resolved through the democratic process?
One would hope so, but we won't know until time passes.

• If the economy continues on its current path, will social unrest/civil disturbance increase? Will they turn more violent?
Maybe, but I suspect the people will just adjust to a lower standard of living, unless their is a perception of unfairness.

• Could foreign influence make these domestic issue worse?
Definitely, a foreign entity could wage political and economic warfare against us, the KGB did. Would it ultimately be successful?

• What role does citizenship (not the legal process of becoming a citizen) play in National Security?
Citizenship is a legal status, and I doubt it contributes much to national security, but a sense of national identity/patriotism is critical.

• Should the US reshape its national security investment strategy to better address these issues?
I think it already has to a large degree, what do you think we're missing?