Here are my predictions for terrorism in Africa in 2012 from my blog www.terrorisminafrica.com

The next twelve months will most likely see the LRA being snuffed out or reduced into a very small, yet no less violent, local threat in the CAR, but far off its course of destabilizing or overthrowing the Ugandan government.

The AQIM will not go much beyond their occasional abduction of foreigners, yet the MOJWA splitter group has threatened to step up jihadist operations in West Africa. They could well keep their word and become Africa’s newest terrorist threat. The deadly wild card here is the large number of Libyan weapons that have found their way into north Africa and the Sahel.

Al-Shabaab will continue to be kept somewhat in check in Somalia, but they could reach deep into Kenya or Uganda in an attempt to intimidate those countries’ or cause over reactions by them or the United States resulting on easier recruitment of Muslims within East Africa. As long as Somalia remains void of an effective central government, the more chance that al-Qaeda will use it for training and hiding out. If the 2012 election in Kenya turns violent as it did last time, it could be a distraction to role in Somalia.

Boko Haram will remain the most active terrorist group in Africa with its operations confined to Nigeria. Its operations may well ignite a widespread civil battle between Nigeria’s Christians and Muslims. The rumored involvement by the United States could become a reality if the oil rich Delta region falls into turmoil.