Reconciliation and COIN in Afghanistan

[davidbfpo]

Hat tip to Open Democracy a comment by an ex-Northern Alliance that has some points, which IIRC have been seen here before:

There seems to be an understanding that to be sustainable and to enjoy popular support, talks or agreements with the Taliban need to happen under several conditions.

Firstly, the Taliban have to be fully disarmed, just like other major militias after the international intervention in 2001.
Secondly, the Taliban must break all relations with Al Qaeda.
Lastly, they must accept and embrace the constitution of Afghanistan to protect basic political freedoms and diversity in the country.
Without a full acceptance of these strict but essential terms, a political settlement that has the capacity to last cannot come to fruition.

What is likely to follow power-sharing with the Taliban has thus potential to put enormous economic and political pressure on the country and turn the Afghans further away from their government. In fact, political unrest and dissatisfaction within political circles as well as on the streets of Afghanistan may escalate into another civil war.

Ends with:

However, it has to be universally understood that a rushed and compromised settlement with the Taliban is not the solution. Until the real backbone of the Taliban – which is, at the moment, in Pakistan – is broken and the Afghan government is strong enough to enforce conditionality, negotiations and power-sharing with the Taliban are doomed to become a new quick-fix with enormous risks for the Afghans and the rest of the world.

Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/opensec...g-with-taliban

From my faraway, safe viewpoint neither of the last two points, breaking the backbone of the Taliban or a strong GIRoA simply will not happen. As exhaustion with Afghanistan sets in, within Western electorates, partly matched by a reduced military role, but with a steady future flow of aid envisaged some of the assumptions made by think tanks and governments appear to be "leaps of faith".

There is a SWJ article on an IISS review of Afghanistan's future, which illustrates the assumptions made and what is likely to happen:http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/ade...015-and-beyond