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Thread: SWJ Small Wars Survey 2012

  1. #41
    Moderator Steve Blair's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AmericanPride View Post
    wm,

    The absolute comparison is more relevant because we are more likely to see limited and "small" wars in a globalizing international environment dominated 24-hour real time media, all-volunteer armies, and the growing "distance" between the civilian population and the country's wars. The distinct advantages of an all-volunteer force is that it requires less political support to deploy and obeys orders even in the absence of popular support. But what has happened in the United States is that the defense economy is now wildly inefficient, with significantly higher costs for substantially less output. "Small" wars now cost more than "big" wars. How much are "big" wars going to cost and can we afford them if we're already bankrupted by "small" wars? This has been labelled the "defense death spiral" where the procurement and replacement cycle continues to require more investments but fields less equipment per generation. This is particularly true for aircraft and warships. And this in turn pressures cuts in personnel and training, reducing combat power all around. Not to mention competition with other domestic agendas and social programs.
    You're really cherry-picking points here. We, for instance, haven't been fighting "small" wars as we have in the past. Our entire procurement and development system was geared for "big" wars, and developed its habits in rehearsals for wars that never came. It also has a great deal to do with our insistence on revolutionary weapon development as opposed to something more gradual (limited number of test systems evolving from something that worked as opposed to extended "super system" development cycles that produce wildly expensive systems that are focused on one or two specific, usually big war missions that may not be relevant by the time the system is fielded). Does everything have to be mutil-role or stealth? Likely not, but that's how development works these days.

    All-volunteer armies are the norm for the United States. This shouldn't be hard to grasp. Would a conscript force actually contain adventurism? People always say so, but I'm not aware of any real studies that demonstrate this. It's nice to say, but the policy class will still see a tool as a tool and would certainly structure any conscription system to exempt their peers (need we remember that "universal health care" isn't really universal, as Congress and others still retain their own, superior systems).
    "On the plains and mountains of the American West, the United States Army had once learned everything there was to learn about hit-and-run tactics and guerrilla warfare."
    T.R. Fehrenbach This Kind of War

  2. #42
    Council Member Ken White's Avatar
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    Default The Armed Force are a reflection of the Society from which they come...

    Quote Originally Posted by AmericanPride View Post
    Americans were quite content with friendly relationships with illiberal and non-democratic regimes for the sixty years prior and to this day. So I very much doubt the assertion that "American politics" somehow requires any new government to be "recognizable" as democratic.
    Not totally correct. There have always been objections that 'friendliness,' they've just grown more voluble, strident and prevalent in the last decade or two to the point where the government of the day now has to pay more attention to those objections. The Mom-ization of America continues...
    That certainly smacks of Orientalism. What features of North African, Arab, and Central Asian societies make them "not amenable to centralized control by anything but main force"?
    As one who has spent almost an equal amount of time in the near east and the far east -- the Orient -- the features that most impact are the Tribal nature of most ME populations and, even more so, the deeply embedded habit of Taarof in the region.
    ...I'm not concerned with their necessity; though once committed to action, achieving a favorable outcome regardless of the original cause(s) becomes a necessity.
    Perhaps. However if the action to which the force is committed is based on unattainable goals due to the ignorance of the civilian policy makers who ordered that commitment success is improbable, necessary or not...
    ...The political leadership made such preparations, including the establishment of the Coalition Provisional Authority and the facilitation of Iraqi government working groups. But the military did not provide the necessary security measures to assist the political process. Why?
    Why? Inadequate troop strength due to decisions by the political leadership (not to mention really serious infighting among said 'leaders'); inadequate training of the force for the mission assigned. There's more but there's plenty of egg for a whole lot of faces and as many or more were senior civilian AND military leaders over several administrations.

    Recall that the CPA was an afterthought, an Ad-hoc thing conjured up in May 2003 (LINK) (when, I believe, George W. Bush realized he'd been sold a bill of goods and had an attack of Christian conscience...) and that replaced the Office for Reconstruction and Humanitarian Assistance (ORHA), itself almost an afterthought as it was born in January of 2003. The civilian policy establishment was guilty of as many or more errors than the Army.
    And this in turn pressures cuts in personnel and training, reducing combat power all around. Not to mention competition with other domestic agendas and social programs.
    Not necessarily so on what those pressures dictate. You may be correct on what happens and likely are but it does not have to be that way, we have choices...

    As for competition with domestic agendas and social programs, your are correct and that's reality -- but that also does not have to be that way. We have choices...

    We continue to make bad choices -- and that is Political, period.

  3. #43
    Council Member Ken White's Avatar
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    Default True dat...

    Quote Originally Posted by Steve Blair View Post
    ...but the policy class will still see a tool as a tool and would certainly structure any conscription system to exempt their peers (need we remember that "universal health care" isn't really universal, as Congress and others still retain their own, superior systems).
    Both Korea and Viet Nam were fought with conscripts / draftees; both had far larger deployed forces than have the recent actions and both had (and caused...) far, far more casualties. Both, in terms of percent of GDP expended and including current VA expenditures also cost more...

    National service will just provide larger forces enabling larger commitments and which will get more people killed in more dumb wars -- which, like all our wars, the Armed Forces do NOT start...

  4. #44
    Council Member AmericanPride's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steve Blair
    We, for instance, haven't been fighting "small" wars as we have in the past. Our entire procurement and development system was geared for "big" wars, and developed its habits in rehearsals for wars that never came. It also has a great deal to do with our insistence on revolutionary weapon development as opposed to something more gradual (limited number of test systems evolving from something that worked as opposed to extended "super system" development cycles that produce wildly expensive systems that are focused on one or two specific, usually big war missions that may not be relevant by the time the system is fielded). Does everything have to be mutil-role or stealth? Likely not, but that's how development works these days.
    I know. And I'm saying that it's not sustainable. Unless we are willing to release the political controls on America's monetary policies, the defense budget will continue to eat up larger portions of scarce financial resources, producing fewer and less combat-ready/relevant systems, at the cost of America's overall defense readiness. We are spending more money for less amount of equipment (which are more delicate than previous generations and therefore require more maintenance) at the expense of personnel end-strength. This translates directly into reduced combat power, which constrains America's strategic options, which in turn endangers American national security.

    Quote Originally Posted by Steve Blair
    All-volunteer armies are the norm for the United States.
    Conscription is a regular feature of America's military experience; a part of every major war since the War of Independence. Furthermore, non-military conscription remains an accepted feature of American society, including youth education and jury duty. What is unique to the United States is the maintenance of a small "peace-time" military (not that the US has known many years of peace). But the inefficient defense economy means that the all-volunteer force cannot be sustained under even limited conditions.
    When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot

  5. #45
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AmericanPride View Post
    Americans were quite content with friendly relationships with illiberal and non-democratic regimes for the sixty years prior and to this day. So I very much doubt the assertion that "American politics" somehow requires any new government to be "recognizable" as democratic.
    You're missing the point. If the US is going to install a new government in a conquered country, Americans expect at least an effort to make that government recognizably democratic. Past involvement with dictatorships has left a lot of bad feeling and resentment, our people know that, and they don't want to see it repeated. Certainly in Iraq the "easiest" way to provide immediate governance would have been to leave the army intact, find a reasonably amenable dictator, and let him have at it. Not so long ago we'd have done exactly that. Can't do it today because it's not politically acceptable on the home front.

    This has nothing to do with whether or not we are willing to deal with or work with non-democracies. The question is whether it would have been domestically acceptable to install a non-democratic government in a conquered territory. The simple answer is "no".

    Quote Originally Posted by AmericanPride View Post
    That certainly smacks of Orientalism. What features of North African, Arab, and Central Asian societies make them "not amenable to centralized control by anything but main force"?
    I said nothing generic about "North African, Arab, and Central Asian societies". I referred to Iraq and Afghanistan. I think even a quick look at their recent histories and built-in ethnic/sectarian issues will explain why setting out to provide stable governance in either was a silly task to take on.

    Quote Originally Posted by AmericanPride View Post
    I never made any assertion to the contrary. My argument has consistently been that the US military has failed accomplish the mission given to it. I'm not concerned with their necessity; though once committed to action, achieving a favorable outcome regardless of the original cause(s) becomes a necessity.
    The forst step in accomplishing a mission and providing a positive outcome is assigning a realistic, practical mission that's achievable with the resources and time we're willing to commit. Fail there, and everything else down the line will reflect that failure. We failed there, big time.

    Quote Originally Posted by AmericanPride View Post
    Then that's a problem of military culture, which is influenced by the senior military leadership. General Shinseki testified to Congress that "hundreds of thousands" of troops would be needed for Iraq. Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz disagreed. It can't be determined who was right because the military plan that was executed was itself painfully inadequate, wasting precious time between the collapse of the Hussein regime and the re-establishment of order.
    Hindsight is 20:20. Certainly mistakes were made, but the task of "restoring order" was also quite predictably much more difficult than civilian leaders, many of whom seemed convinced that Iraqis would be dancing in the streets, welcoming us into Baghdad, and jumping on board our program, wanted to believe.

    Quote Originally Posted by AmericanPride View Post
    I suppose it is when you assume that these countries "are inherently unstable societies not amenable to centralized control by anything but main force." Transfers of power occur frequently. Machiavelli discussed it in some detail hundreds of years ago. There was some serious error in planning for not anticipating that a new government will need to be established after demolishing the old one. Since you agree that stable governments do not "appear from thin air", why didn't the military anticipate and plan for a transfer of power? The political leadership made such preparations, including the establishment of the Coalition Provisional Authority and the facilitation of Iraqi government working groups. But the military did not provide the necessary security measures to assist the political process. Why?
    Plans were made. The plans made were completely unrealistic, based on absurd assumptions passed down from above.

    Whether or not stable governments can evolve in these societies is a moot point. Of course they can. The question is whether an outside power can impose stable government, and the simple answer is "no". The act of imposing governance and the presence of an occupying power in environments like this effectively guarantees instability and resistance. Efforts to "build a nation" instead of recognizing that nations and governments have to grow through a gradual organic process assure resistance and failure. We couldn't install stable governments, neither could anyone else. It was an idiotic task that should never have been taken on.

    The question that needs to be asked is not why the mission failed, but why the mission was undertaken in the first place.
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

    H.L. Mencken

  6. #46
    Council Member AmericanPride's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan
    If the US is going to install a new government in a conquered country, Americans expect at least an effort to make that government recognizably democratic. Past involvement with dictatorships has left a lot of bad feeling and resentment, our people know that, and they don't want to see it repeated. Certainly in Iraq the "easiest" way to provide immediate governance would have been to leave the army intact, find a reasonably amenable dictator, and let him have at it. Not so long ago we'd have done exactly that. Can't do it today because it's not politically acceptable on the home front.
    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan
    The question is whether it would have been domestically acceptable to install a non-democratic government in a conquered territory. The simple answer is "no".
    "Democracy" means many different things and comes in numerous shapes and sizes. After 9/11, Americans would have been content with anything so long as Al-Qaeda was destroyed. And quite frankly, Americans have a short memory, little patience, and aren't particularly concerned with nuanced details (like Iraqi civilian casualty numbers) so I think you are over-estimating the liberal compassion of the American people. Either way, the military did not anticipate the obvious necessity of transferring power from one government to another, and what security measures would be necessary to facilitate it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan
    I think even a quick look at their recent histories and built-in ethnic/sectarian issues will explain why setting out to provide stable governance in either was a silly task to take on.
    No, go ahead and explain it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan
    Certainly mistakes were made, but the task of "restoring order" was also quite predictably much more difficult than civilian leaders, many of whom seemed convinced that Iraqis would be dancing in the streets, welcoming us into Baghdad, and jumping on board our program, wanted to believe.
    At least the civilian leadership gave it some thought. The military did not even consider it. Little effort was made in anticipating and preempting the fallout of demolishing Hussein's government. The military was obsessed with chasing the ghosts of the defeated Hussein regime instead of identifying the emerging threats and destroying them when they were most vulnerable. The military allowed for the conditions of insurgency to develop and persist until such point the momentum of resistance required the next seven years to turn around. In the same time frame, the political leadership established the Coalition Provisional Authority and worked to expeditiously transfer sovereignty to a legitimate Iraqi government. The political leadership is not liable for the inability of the military leadership to exercise forethought in the execution of their duties.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan
    The question is whether an outside power can impose stable government, and the simple answer is "no". The act of imposing governance and the presence of an occupying power in environments like this effectively guarantees instability and resistance. Efforts to "build a nation" instead of recognizing that nations and governments have to grow through a gradual organic process assure resistance and failure. We couldn't install stable governments, neither could anyone else. It was an idiotic task that should never have been taken on.
    Stability is a function of political violence. The window for establishing stability was very short immediately following the collapse of the Hussein government. By all accounts, the CPA moved fairly quickly in organizing an Iraqi government. But the military did not anticipate the emergence of an insurgency and therefore failed in its task to create the necessary security conditions. The political leadership is not responsible for the resistance's transition from uniformed professionals of the former Iraqi army into a formidable, organized insurgency. That is the fault of the military for failing to anticipate changing conditions and attacking the new threat before it materialized. You say hindsight is 20/20. History provides a considerable amount of hindsight to use. So why didn't the military, knowing that "efforts to "build a nation" instead of recognizing that nations and governments have to grow through a gradual organic process assure resistance," anticipate the emergence of said resistance and do anything to deter or prevent it? Or, are they just clueless automatons blindly following orders from on high?

    The question is why did the mission failed because that's the question I've been asking and answering.
    When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot

  7. #47
    Council Member Ken White's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AmericanPride View Post
    Conscription is a regular feature of America's military experience; a part of every major war since the War of Independence.
    True, but...

    In all those wars where it was used -- Civil, WW I, WW II, Korea and Viet Nam, a net of 31 years or so out of 224 or about 14% -- it's been universally unfair in application, gamed and not nearly as effective as one might think. The only benefit is to provide mass and we have no need for that at this time. Au contraire...
    Furthermore, non-military conscription remains an accepted feature of American society, including youth education and jury duty.
    I'll give you education, which is kinda pathetic and a worse misuse of talent than is military service but comparing a week or so of Jury Duty with a few months of military service is really stretching things...
    What is unique to the United States is the maintenance of a small "peace-time" military (not that the US has known many years of peace).
    Not so. The British have even more years of doing that than do we. The Continental Europeans have always since the French Revolution pretty much opted for conscription -- but we are far different folks than those good people. Further, it should be noted that just as Europe is dismantling the social democratic welfare state while we are trying to enhance ours, they are also ditching conscription and going to all volunteer forces. Thus like our current administration you seem determined to copy policies that the originators of said policies are now realizing they couldn't afford or that were not effective...
    But the inefficient defense economy means that the all-volunteer force cannot be sustained under even limited conditions.
    Very much arguable. Boils down to politics -- which in essence is what this thread is degenerating to.

    As an aside, the entire US economy, not just the defense portion, is inefficient. The US government is inefficient. Inefficiency isn't all bad. Ineffectiveness OTOH is bad -- but it would be a big mistake to equate the Afghan-Iraq episodes admitted relative ineffectiveness (which had many parents, not all in uniform nor even all human) on the part of the Armed Forces with a generic case of all round ineffectiveness...
    By all accounts, the CPA moved fairly quickly in organizing an Iraqi government.
    After first disbanding the Iraqi Army and Police, putting a couple of hundred thousand armed men on the street, broke and unemployable. Absolutely flipping brilliant -- and totally political. Caught the US Army by surprise, too.
    The question is why did the mission failed because that's the question I've been asking and answering.
    As several have pointed out, it did not quickly achieve all objectives due to failures in execution. It's too early to say it failed, let's give it another 10 to 15 years, then we may be able to tell and my suspicion is that it'll be declared a flawed effort with an ultimately generally successful outcome. We'll have to wait and see. It had some strategic merit and it was not a waste but the execution was flawed and both the Army and the politicians erred and did so repeatedly.

    You have not been answering your own question, you have been providing your perspective. Very different things.

  8. #48
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    Default Misdirection may be an explanation but it is not an excuse

    It is depressing to read posts on this thread that seem resigned to the inevitability of more small wars destined to end in failure. Why not only small wars that can be structured and resourced to succeed ?

    The US military is known to generally stress a need for obedience, and also subordination of the armed forces to the political administration of the day. Both those may be all well and good but an essential role for senior military officers is to provide pertinent and objective advice without fear or favour. If unable to do that or if such advice is routinely rejected or ignored, then one alternative is to resign. That course of action is rarely followed even though every senior officer knows that another responsibility is to develop able subordinates and hence potential successors as opposed to fairly competent or even incompetent placeholders.

    An alternative but less acceptable action is to go public. The last US senior officer to semi-effectively condemn and repudiate political direction as impractical and mis-directed was General Stanley McChrystal. But his reaction lacked impact because it was informal and could be depreciated because it was fuelled in part by alcohol. It would have been more effective to have resigned and later when out of uniform to announce and elaborate on the reasons for resignation at a public forum such as a press conference.

    So repeating the initial question: Why not only small wars that can be structured and resourced to succeed (with an all-volunteer force) ?

    And secondly: At what level are US officers required to provide forthright confidential advice direct to the political administration?

    And thirdly: What is the tipping point for resignation as opposed to acquiescence or possibly brown nosing ?

  9. #49
    Council Member MikeF's Avatar
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    Default Compost, Good commentary, but

    Quote Originally Posted by Compost View Post
    So repeating the initial question: Why not only small wars that can be structured and resourced to succeed (with an all-volunteer force) ?
    Why are you limiting your question to pre-determine a U.S. military solution to solving other states problems?

    What evidence do you have to suggest that a better war theory or better resourced military could in fact provide the solution that you are seeking?

    In my mind, the question itself is inherently lacking sophistication or any sense of creativity.

    An alternative but less acceptable action is to go public. The last US senior officer to semi-effectively condemn and repudiate political direction as impractical and mis-directed was General Stanley McChrystal. But his reaction lacked impact because it was informal and could be depreciated because it was fuelled in part by alcohol. It would have been more effective to have resigned and later when out of uniform to announce and elaborate on the reasons for resignation at a public forum such as a press conference.
    Really? Is this an early attempt at historical revisionism? McChrystal is currently on speaking tours getting paid handsomely for his thoughts.

    And thirdly: What is the tipping point for resignation as opposed to acquiescence or possibly brown nosing ?
    General Officers have a duty to tell the truth.
    Last edited by MikeF; 01-14-2012 at 08:56 AM.

  10. #50
    Council Member Ken White's Avatar
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    Default Different strokes...

    Quote Originally Posted by Compost View Post
    It is depressing to read posts on this thread that seem resigned to the inevitability of more small wars destined to end in failure. Why not only small wars that can be structured and resourced to succeed ?
    This thread may lead to that perception but the bulk of comment on this Board trends to suggesting we avoid those 'small wars' that entail large troop commitments and instead use better Intelligence, diplomacy and Special Forces in small numbers to intervene early. I think that may equate to your "small wars that can be structured and resourced to succeed."

    The reason for avoiding the commitment of large forces is the historic probability of a lack of success due to flawed policy maker perceptions of the problem, US national traits of impatience and our electoral cycle which can -- and usually does -- undermine political will. Almost no one asserts "do not do this," rather most say avoid large commitments if at all possible.
    So repeating the initial question: Why not only small wars that can be structured and resourced to succeed (with an all-volunteer force) ?
    Makes sense to me -- the issue then becomes how to do that and how to avoid those that likely cannot be properly "structured" -- or adequately fought. The rub in that is such decisions will almost always be based on less than full information and for the US on domestic politics rather than the international situation or pure foreign policy concerns. That last item is quite important and often not understood by observers, domestic and foreign...
    And secondly: At what level are US officers required to provide forthright confidential advice direct to the political administration?
    Too much variance to answer succinctly but at the level you probably mean, by US law, only the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is at that level. Practically speaking, the service Chiefs are generally involved in providing such advice. On occasion, for specific issues, a four star Combatant or Geographic Commander may also weigh in. In the recent strategy sessions in Washington, all those were apparently involved.
    And thirdly: What is the tipping point for resignation as opposed to acquiescence or possibly brown nosing ?
    Such resignations are essentially a European construct, US tradition differs and here such resignations are extremely rare. The rationale is that if one resigns in protest, the Administration will simply keep asking people until it finds one who will do what is desired and thus, if one disagrees with a policy, it is better to stay and try to ameliorate the potential damage. There is also the factor that US tradition places strong emphasis on loyalty and adherence to the civil power, more so than is the norm in most nations.

    It would be easy to say such an approach is self serving and less honorable than a resignation in protest, both arguably true. It is even more true that the rationale for not resigning is correct and the powers that be will simply keep going down the well until they find a turtle that will do what's wanted. IMO the American solution is more practical if less praiseworthy in the eyes of some.

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    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Obedience and then resignation

    Ken as always comments wisely and whilst noting there are differences between the European and US approach to WM's question:
    And thirdly: What is the tipping point for resignation as opposed to acquiescence or possibly brown nosing ?
    It is quite clear, even for someone not within, that a good number of British Army officers have taken another way out - resignation, often after a tour in operational command. A good number have commented in public, usually in carefully phrased media interviews.

    Some I expect have other reasons than the political directions given and the military command's response.
    davidbfpo

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    Council Member Ken White's Avatar
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    Default Excellent point, David and noticed even on this side of the pond...

    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    It is quite clear, even for someone not within, that a good number of British Army officers have taken another way out - resignation, often after a tour in operational command. A good number have commented in public, usually in carefully phrased media interviews
    It will be interesting in the next few years to see how much the monolithic entity that is Defence / Defense changes in response to such resignations. Or to the current US grumbling within the ranks

    I think we can all agree that turning Elephants is hard work. Rewarding, perhaps but difficult...

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    Default Military or Political "Failure"

    from Compost
    It is depressing to read posts on this thread that seem resigned to the inevitability of more small wars destined to end in failure. Why not only small wars that can be structured and resourced to succeed ?
    First off (to Compost), I can suggest "small wars that can be structured and resourced to succeed." So also can a whole bunch of other people here ! As an example, I'd say "regime removal" - you want him taken out, the US "can do". The totally different "small war" of "regime change" is another story.

    One material question in this thread is what constraints should be applied to a given state (not the USA, necessarily). Everything I post about "COIN" should have the disclaimer "try this at home first".

    Another question (which is wholly individual) is what restraints should be applied to foreign interventions.

    You use the word "failure". That is obviously different from "victory" (or is it ? - a good case can be made for a USAian "failure" at San Juan Hill, etc.)

    But, is "failure" different from "defeat" and "disaster" ? Well, "yes" and "no" - and consider the following resources (I have read them):

    British Military Defeats

    The French Military as Contrasted with the English since 1500: Proud Traditions or a Badge of Shame?

    Wiki - List of military disasters

    Regan, Great Military Disasters: A Historical Survey of Military Incompetence

    Lind on U.S. Military Failures during the Cold War

    Lind on Nixon’s Strategic and Tactical Failures

    Michael Lind, Vietnam, the Necessary War: A Reinterpretation of America’s Most Disastrous Military Conflict (Simon & Schuster, 1999)

    William R. Corson, Consequences of Failure (W W Norton , 1973)

    David MacIsaac, Of Victories, Defeats, and Failures (Air University Review, 1974)

    Bill Corson’s Consequences of Failure bears little resemblance to the Loory or Chodes books. Where Loory speaks of defeat, Corson treats of what he prefers to call failure; where Chodes uses history he tends to invent it whereas Corson’s grasp of historical perspective is what lends to his analysis its particular cogency. Corson, a retired Marine colonel, is well known to readers of military literature, particularly for his scathing indictment of search-and-destroy tactics in The Betrayal, which appeared in 1968. In the more recent book Corson ranges well beyond I Corps in an attempt to “evaluate the consequences of America’s failure in Vietnam in terms of its observable effects upon the United States and its institutions.” (p. 17)

    Corson begins by reminding us to understand that we have not experienced a defeat in Vietnam but a “military failure” - defined as the nonperformance of something required or expected - a phenomenon with distinct characteristics and by no means an uncommon experience in the life of a nation. Such failures have been less studied than victories and successes, even though “failure is as much a determinant of future political behavior as is success.” Corson fervently believes that we will repeat our failure in Vietnam elsewhere unless we as a nation immediately acknowledge the fact of failure and undertake a rigid examination of our collective conscience. (pp. 15-18)

    By means of a series of historical case studies, Corson sets out to illustrate how the violating or ignoring of certain principles of “limited war” strategy contributes to the failure of a great power in any conflict that does not affect its national existence. Starting with the Dacian and Parthian campaigns of the Emperor Trajan (A.D. 98-117), he moves through the catastrophic involvement of Spain in its war in the Netherlands during the sixteenth century to the British problems on this continent during the eighteenth century. Then, in somewhat more detail, he treats Britain’s military failure in Ireland between 1916 and 1922. From these examples Corson derives a number of general principles that need be applied (and others that need be omitted) if a great power is to avoid encountering military failure. (pp. 28-30, 72-73)

    In essence, these boil down to abandoning—for limited wars not affecting national survival—MacArthur’s definition of victory in favor of Clausewitz’s rather more complex idea that winning means either to achieve one’s objectives by offensive action or, defensively, to thwart the enemy’s intentions; that losing is defined simply as the failure to achieve one’s objectives even though one’s forces are undefeated and still able to engage the enemy. Or, to quote Secretary of State Kissinger on Vietnam, “In the process we lost sight of one of the cardinal maxims of guerrilla war: the guerrilla wins if he does not lose. The conventional army loses if it does not win."
    Bill Corson started out with a huge concept - to distinguish "failure" from "defeat" and "disaster"; but then got lost in the immediate situation - the close of the Vietnam War. As Ken says: Wait for 40 years. In any case, we should be looking not only to "victory" and "defeat"; but also to "failure" and (I'd say) "success" (a state less than "victory").

    OK, SMG White, Can we now start ? Like, who really "won" (or "succeeded in") the SE Asian War (and Non-War) Games ? And, where did Indochina fit into that picture (if at all) - yes, I know Dayuhan has a possible oar in that boat.

    BLUF at end: There is a long history to "Small Wars"; but it has to be explored very carefully with discernment as to "constraints" (which are set by the environment) and "restraints" (which are set by each of us).

    For my large rugby-playing friend from That Place on the Hudson, I'd suggest your pick of eras is appropriate to understand the "beginnings". Owen Fiss called 1888-1910 the "Troubled Beginnings of the Modern State" (Holmes Devise History of SCOTUS; too expensive unless you are a Con Law scholar - find a library copy - or come up to Northern Michigan and read it - that's a real invite, BTW ).

    I've been in the same era for the last year or so - re: the most important issue - what are the reasonable limits of USAian force projection ??

    Regards

    Mike
    Last edited by jmm99; 01-15-2012 at 05:48 AM.

  14. #54
    Council Member MikeF's Avatar
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by jmm99 View Post
    For my large rugby-playing friend from That Place on the Hudson, I'd suggest your pick of eras is appropriate to understand the "beginnings". Owen Fiss called 1888-1910 the "Troubled Beginnings of the Modern State" (Holmes Devise History of SCOTUS; too expensive unless you are a Con Law scholar - find a library copy - or come up to Northern Michigan and read it - that's a real invite, BTW ).
    That's actually probably the perfect book for me right now. I want to explore Plessy v. Ferguson and the resulting Wilmington, NC rebellion in 1898.

    The Ghosts of 1898
    WILMINGTON’S RACE RIOT AND THE RISE OF WHITE SUPREMACY


    And, I may have to get up to Michigan some day to say hello

    By the way, Josephus Daniels, the publisher of the N&O at the time, is better known as SECNAVY and responsible for the phrase "cup of joe" after he forced prohibition on the fleet
    Last edited by MikeF; 01-15-2012 at 09:28 AM.

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    Default response to post 49

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeF View Post
    Why are you limiting your question to pre-determine a U.S. military solution to solving other states problems?
    You seem fixated on a US solution and fail to consider any form of coalition.

    My initial question was/is consistent with this thread which is focused on prospective US involvement in future small wars. US foreign policy is likely to continue on established lines. As a result its military is certain to be periodically committed in attempts to solve other states problems: as in failed states, failing states and states degraded by various forms of conflict, and importantly small states that are behaving in a manner deemed unacceptable to US and probably also other nations interests and concerns. Change the last to a large or powerful state and the issue probably changes to become a future large war.

    But in the small war context no-one said or should assume the US effort has to be solitary. It is instead likely to be joined in a combined or coalition effort with other like-minded nations. And not exclusively western nations. The US with the best resourced and largest homogeneous joint force will often be the largest contributor. Hence the US – regardless of recent examples of poor political and military decision-making in regard to Iraq and Afghanistan - may also take or be ceded leadership.

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeF View Post
    What evidence do you have to suggest that a better war theory or better resourced military could in fact provide the solution that you are seeking?

    In my mind, the question itself is inherently lacking sophistication or any sense of creativity.
    Concepts such as a ‘better war theory’ and a ‘better resourced military’ are entirely your creations. Try turning my actual question around:
    Why not also the other small wars that are poorly structured and/or poorly resourced ?

    It truly is a no-brainer. Or at least should be for anyone who has completed Joint Force Planning 101. But since Vietnam the US political/military nexus seems to have had great difficulty working out and accepting what is and is not practicable in a small war contingency.

    One essential pre-requisite for successful involvement in a small war is a realistic set of political objectives and constraints. The complementary needs are a responsive military strategy, an applied concept of operation and adequate resources for implementation. That is a small war structured to succeed. In the preliminary stage - once requirements and attributes have been agreed - it is then necessary to determine the scalar factor and the actual resources to be assigned.

    The only ‘better war theory’ that I understand is to go early rather than late and to build up rapidly rather than in a trickle. However that was not the case in either Iraq 2003 or Afghanistan 2001 and later. Some political objectives – such as establishing a functioning democratic state - may be unachieveable in a useful timeframe. Also constraints may be similarly impracticable rather than just bothersome. US forces already have enough total manpower and materiel resources to influence any small war with a high probability of success. But the proportion of those resources made available is subject to political approval.

    If the military hierarchy assess that the objectives and constraints are impractical or the assigned resources are inadequate then changes should result. If that does not happen then members of that military hierarchy can grin and bear it, resign, or do whatever else seems appropriate at the time. Hence my second question.

    At what level are US officers required to provide forthright confidential advice direct to the political administration ?

    Group think is a natural and serious problem within the military that is inculcated to be loyal and responsive to command. However senior officers especially have divisive responsibilities to provide loyalty both upwards and downwards. My expectation is that every member of the joint chiefs plus the relevant theatre commander and the joint force commander are able to provide non-interruptible independent dissenting advice, with a concurrent advisory to all other such officers. (By confidential in this context I mean/meant not outside that hierarchy.) But that expectation is un-informed and it would be interesting to learn what if any arrangements do apply.

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeF View Post
    Really? Is this an early attempt at historical revisionism? McChrystal is currently on speaking tours getting paid handsomely for his thoughts.
    Do you really believe that a senior officer wants to be prematurely retired and then paid handsomely for spoken thoughts that probably fail to cause a single ripple inside the Washington beltway ? Well better to be paid handsomely rather than not at all.

    Revisionism is a foolish concept. However, it is odds-on that General McChrystal would have preferred to continue leading and directing coalition forces in Afghanistan provided they were permitted to wage a well structured and adequately resourced campaign.

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeF View Post
    General Officers have a duty to tell the truth.
    That was your response to my third question: What is the tipping point for resignation as opposed to acquiescence or possibly brown nosing ?

    What if nothing eventuates other than possibly some kind of counselling session ? There are several choices. One: plead mea culpa for the unwarranted intrusion. Two: march happily into the future content to know that a truthful view was submitted but thought to be invalid, irrelevant or otherwise unimportant. Three: submit a letter of resignation and thereafter publicly explain the reason for such action. Four: employ a better structured version of General McChrystal’s indirect approach.

    It would be interesting to read views on these and other possible courses of action.

    Here’s an ancillary suggestion. After telling such a truth it would be adviseable to have a letter of resignation in the other pocket as a ready response to any subsequent request for resignation ?

  16. #56
    Council Member MikeF's Avatar
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    Default Revisionism

    Quote Originally Posted by Compost View Post
    Revisionism is a foolish concept.
    All history is revisionism as told from the mind of the author

    Well better to be paid handsomely rather than not at all.
    Perhaps, but that is dependent on one's value system.
    Last edited by MikeF; 01-15-2012 at 10:49 AM.

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    Default A Scotsman article

    I know Major General Andrew Mackay and Commander Steve Tatham have appeared before on SWC / SWJ:http://smallwarsjournal.com/search/node/tatham

    As if by magic after my last post here 'Obedience and then resignation' (Post No.51) The Scotsman has an article about their new book Behavioural Conflict: 'Why Understanding People and Their Motivations Will Prove Decisive in Future Conflict':http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/mini...eral_1_2057051

    The book was published in November 2011, with one review on US & UK Amazon sites:http://www.amazon.com/Behavioural-Co...6634374&sr=1-1 and http://www.amazon.co.uk/Behavioural-...6634554&sr=1-1

    From a linked article, I cite only one passage:
    When Mackay had returned to Scotland after his posting, he had sent the MoD the standard debriefing report, which is usually a dull document summarising the events of the tour. Mackay's, by all accounts, was a scorching criticism of numerous aspects of the British operation in Helmand – especially the capacity of the military to spend money on winning hearts and minds as well as battles. Colleagues had advised him that, for the good of his career, he should tone it down, but he delivered it anyway.
    Link:http://www.scotsman.com/news/kenny_f...arts_1_1362194
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 01-15-2012 at 05:40 PM. Reason: Add links and again
    davidbfpo

  18. #58
    Council Member MikeF's Avatar
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    Default Structure Issue not Leadership


    Flawed by Design:The Evolution of the CIA, JCS, and NSC

    by Amy Zegart

    In this provocative and thoughtful book, Amy Zegart challenges the conventional belief that national security agencies work reasonably well to serve the national interest as they were designed to do. Using a new institutionalist approach, Zegart asks what forces shaped the initial design of the Central Intelligence Agency, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the National Security Council in ways that meant they were handicapped from birth.

    Ironically, she finds that much of the blame can be ascribed to cherished features of American democracy—frequent elections, the separation of powers, majority rule, political compromise—all of which constrain presidential power and give Congress little incentive to create an effective foreign policy system. At the same time, bureaucrats in rival departments had the expertise, the staying power, and the incentives to sabotage the creation of effective competitors, and this is exactly what they did.

    Historical evidence suggests that most political players did not consider broad national concerns when they forged the CIA, JCS, and NSC in the late 1940s. Although President Truman aimed to establish a functional foreign policy system, he was stymied by self-interested bureaucrats, legislators, and military leaders. The NSC was established by accident, as a byproduct of political compromise; Navy opposition crippled the JCS from the outset; and the CIA emerged without the statutory authority to fulfill its assigned role thanks to the Navy, War, State, and Justice departments, which fought to protect their own intelligence apparatus.

    Not surprisingly, the new security agencies performed poorly as they struggled to overcome their crippled evolution. Only the NSC overcame its initial handicaps as several presidents exploited loopholes in the National Security Act of 1947 to reinvent the NSC staff. The JCS, by contrast, remained mired in its ineffective design for nearly forty years—i.e., throughout the Cold War—and the CIA’s pivotal analysis branch has never recovered from its origins. In sum, the author paints an astonishing picture: the agencies Americans count on most to protect them from enemies abroad are, by design, largely incapable of doing so.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 01-15-2012 at 01:31 PM. Reason: First para excised as no longer relevant, was citing moi

  19. #59
    Council Member MikeF's Avatar
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    Default What Afghans Need???

    Ministry of Defence is ‘systematically incompetent’, says former general
    By Richard Bath

    “We tried to shove democracy down their throats when the last thing Afghanistan needed was democracy. What it needed was security,” says Mackay. “We need to engage with the Afghans, but when we bring them democracy or emphasise women’s rights, we’re bringing them our values system. That’s something that we continually get wrong.

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    Default Heh. In other words, the system is the problem...

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeF View Post
    Interesting. I'll have to get that one, she says what I've believed and said for years. The governmental process which I would not wish changed is the culprit. The domestic politics which dictate our foreign policy also have hobbled our efforts to create organs of government. This quote from the excerpt:

    "The JCS, by contrast, remained mired in its ineffective design for nearly forty years—i.e., throughout the Cold War—and the CIA’s pivotal analysis branch has never recovered from its origins. In sum, the author paints an astonishing picture: the agencies Americans count on most to protect them from enemies abroad are, by design, largely incapable of doing so."(emphasis added /kw)

    Is IMO correct with the exception of the fact that the JCS is still ineffective and Goldwater-Nichols is / was no help. The designed inefficiency of the US governmental processes should never have been transferred to agency design, the CIA should have been structured and required to be apolitical an operate without Congressional control (but with oversight, not the same thing) as should the Defense establishment -- I've never been convinced DoD was a good idea, the separate Departments worked well enough. The NSC probably doesn't need to exist at all...

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