I found this CSIS analyst's report via the Lowy Institute, it is rather a long read and so I went to the concluding paragraph:
In short, the most probable result of result of “transition” will not be what some US policymakers have come to call “Afghan Good Enough” – a stable democratic state -- nor will it be a stable Pakistan. It will be an unstable form of “Afghan Muddle Through,” coupled to an unstable Pakistan still driven largely by its internal problems and tensions with India.
Link:http://csis.org/publication/transiti...w-does-war-end