'Nigeria: the context for violence' (2006-2013)

[Stan]

Seems to be more like the usual pre-election thuggery here (there's an important local election coming up).

Seems a more reasonable conclusion.

Trust me, they are coming for the Yankees. Let's put rest to all the speculation and finally admit that they are allied with Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda isn't that interested in the local stuff, they want to hurt America. Fortunately, most Americans live in the South, but a good number live in Abuja (and they have demonstrated the ability to strike in Abuja).

You may recall it being me surprised they have yet to go after 25,000 westerners. Apparently the strike in Abuja was about something else (for the moment). BH has demonstrated they can operate in Nigeria with little resistance, they have demonstrated they have a sympathetic reach with the military, and, they have demonstrated they have connections within the government. They could have gone after the westerners that live in the south long ago - nothing is holding them back. I have seen nothing aside from blogs that indicates some connection with anyone outside of Nigeria and it seems, they really have little use for outside assistance.

The Nigerian Military is going to be pinned down fighting several inter-ethnic clashes triggered by BH activity. That will give them ample room to plan and execute something really big against Western expatriates.

They have had that advantage from day one with the Nigerian military and police.