Can Boko Haram destabilise Northern Cameroon and Southern Niger in addition to Nigeria? Are we looking at a scenario in which Boko Haram could extend beyond Nigeria's borders, establish bases and launch attacks?
If Nigeria is poorly governed and policed, then Northern Cameroon and Southern Niger are even less well governed and policed.
If that plays out, it becomes even more difficult to root it out.
It's a reality. There are already teams desperately trying to round up and destroy ordnance and account for weapons all over Libya. The concern however is more about the rebel forces deciding not to relinquish their arms and turn over power to the government (whoever that is).Originally Posted by KingJaja
The UN has money, but not the manpower in the pertinent skill sets.
If you want to blend in, take the bus
Ooops, my bad. It was an observation by Kingjaja:
What about Christians in Northern Nigeria? Some estimates put the percentage of Christians in Borno State (the epicenter of Boko Haram) as high as 30%. If there is a popular social movement against economic marginalization, why aren't Christians part of it?
Not a single Christian in Northern Nigeria believes that there is an economic justification for Boko Haram and the associated violence. Western analysts spin that line, but no Christian in Northern Nigeria is buying it.Very interesting observation. I was attending a presentation just on Monday where the presenter, a missions statistician claimed that there are many more
Christians in the north, in fact, he said the country is not divided 50/50 Christian/Muslim. "those facts are what Muslims put out to make them seem stronger in numbers than they really are in Nigeria."
That just add fuel to your observation. What are the Christians feeling and desiring to see take place in light of the economic plight of the north? Why do Muslims seem so much more upset.
I think it goes back to more what Kingjaja was saying a few weeks back about how upset they are about the way the government security hit back at them in 2009.
The same presenter, Patrick Johnstone, went on to make an even broader statement:
The Christian population of Nigeria is yet to respond in kind to the provocation and many efforts are being made to cool tempers. But with each passing day, the probability of Lebanon-style all out war increases.
People are buying guns.
Interesting you touched on the issue of Muslim population. Most Southerners and Christians believe that the population figures for Muslims in the North are inflated. During the last census (2006) - Muslim leaders fought against the inclusion of religion on census forms, why?
Nigeria has never held an uncontroversial census. In fact, Southerners and Christians believe that the British connived with the North to inflate the numbers of Muslims and Northerners in the pre-independence census. (Many Nigerians hate the Brits for a host of different reasons).
Read this.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/4512240.stmNo-one knows how many Nigerians there are - and until now the authorities have been too afraid to find out.
Legend has it that one out of every five black people on Earth is a Nigerian. But that can only be an assumption, for every headcount held in Nigeria in the past 30 years has ended in national controversy and with strong allegations of population inflation.
The last census was carried out in 1991. Its figures - which are regarded only as being marginally less manipulated than the others - put the total population at 88.9 million, almost equally divided between the two sexes.
Since then the population has been projected on an annual growth rate of about 2.9%. The official projected figure for 2003 was 126 million.
Headcount
A new census was to have been held between November and December last year. Preparations for it by the National Population Commission (NPC) started in 2003.
But last July, President Olusegun Obasanjo delayed the exercise until this coming March.
The official reason given for the postponement was that vital material would not arrive from abroad in time for the headcount to be held as scheduled.
What was not openly acknowledged was the gathering political storm over the type of data to be collected.
The controversy relates to ethnicity and religion. How many Nigerians are Muslims and how many are Christians? What is the strength of each ethnic group in the country?
Traditional and political leaders in the largely Muslim northern states announced last year their strong opposition to the inclusion of questions on religious persuasion and ethnicity in the census questionnaire.
So those figures being bandied around as Nigeria's population and religious/ethnic composition are most likely, wrong.
Does it have anything to do with the fact that Salafist elements hold prominent positions in the NTC? Can we now say that BH has already got this stuff?It's a reality. There are already teams desperately trying to round up and destroy ordnance and account for weapons all over Libya. The concern however is more about the rebel forces deciding not to relinquish their arms and turn over power to the government (whoever that is).
The UN has money, but not the manpower in the pertinent skill sets.
Nigeria: The exodus begins?
Church newspaper, claims 35,000 Christians have already fled Northern Nigeria. Figure seems small by Congolese standards, but is still significant.
http://members4.boardhost.com/acnaus...327618188.htmlUP to 35,000 people have fled from the north of Nigeria following ongoing attacks by Boko Haram.
Last Friday (20th January), the extremist Islamist group carried out attacks in Kano city, Borno State killing at least 160 people.
According to reports received by Aid to the Church in Need on the 24th January from Church sources in the country up to 35,000 people left their homes following the violence.
ACN was told: “People just run away to where they think they’ll be safe, especially to Jos and further south.”
One source added: “There is panic. Many just leave everything behind, and run for safety, because they do not know when violence might flare up again.
There was a large number of Catholics among those fleeing, who reported that churches were destroyed in Maidiguri, Borno State and Bauchi, Bauchi State on Sunday (22nd January).
ACN was told: “It is the stated goal of Boko Haram to make the whole of the north free of Christians.”
At the beginning of January, group spokesman, Abul Qaqa, gave Christians living in the north with a three-day ultimatum to leave.
Boko Haram, which means “western education is sinful” in Nigeria’s Hausa language, has killed at least 935 people since it launched an uprising in 2009, according to Human Rights Watch.
This includes more than 250 at the beginning of 2012.
According to the report 550 people were killed in 115 separate attacks by Boko Haram last year, mostly in Borno State.
Not necessarily. I'd guess that militant Salafists in the NTC are more likely to be stockpiling arms for their own militias, anticipating an eventual civil war and a possibility of taking over Libya.
Ideology is not the only factor in the spread of weapons. Money is at least as important, maybe more so. Weapons are portable, salable, and valuable: if you're a member of the old regime or its army and on the run, whatever you can bring is likely to be sold to anyone with cash, regardless of ideology. People on the run need money.
Not unlikely, but not certain either. You'll know when they show up. Libya isn't the only source of arms by any means. They may show up in the hands of Christians as well, or anyone else with money to pay for them.
Foreign supporters of BH are more likely to send money than arms. Money moves very easily, and shipping arms is a hassle. In an environment where black market arms are easily obtained, sending money makes a lot more sense than trying to ship weaponry.
Last edited by Dayuhan; 01-26-2012 at 11:48 PM.
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”
H.L. Mencken
Well Christians tend to source their weapons from the South - via the same channels the Niger Delta Militants use. I guess they'll also be open to whoever has guns.Not unlikely, but not certain either. You'll know when they show up. Libya isn't the only source of arms by any means. They may show up in the hands of Christians as well, or anyone else with money to pay for them.
Foreign supporters of BH are more likely to send money than arms. Money moves very easily, and shipping arms is a hassle. In an environment where black market arms are easily obtained, sending money makes a lot more sense than trying to ship weaponry.
I really fear a war along religious lines, the kind of firepower Christians can bring to bear is worrying - most of Nigeria's Diaspora is Christian and the Diaspora sends about $10 billion a year in remittances. A lot of weapons can be bought with such money.
Muslims are no slouches either. One or two billionaires are Muslim and could keep the war going on for quite some time.
We pray for peace.
This article from Sahara Reporters talks about another relocation trend in Nigeria - leaving the country entirely.
http://mobile.saharareporters.com/ar...-want-relocateThere was a time when the end goal of most migrs was to return home once their mission was accomplished. Data may show that 80 per cent or more of Nigerians who left for Europe and for North America between 1952 and 1972, returned home. Data may also show that the number of returnees began to decline in 1976/77, and alarmingly by 1985. Between 1990 and 2005, some 90 per cent knew they were not returning to that messed up country any time soon.
Today, that number is about 98 per cent. Nigerians are moving to countries they otherwise wouldnt consider. They are checking out to God-forsaken and far-flung places. It didnt matter if these places are war zones, famine-ridden places, or places that were as cold or as hot as hell. Anywhere but Nigeria! Some even brave the hostility of the Sahara Desert just to get to Europe.
It also speaks of the cold reception those who have left years ago get upon their return. Besides the cold shoulder, they are often poorer than those who have stayed in Nigeria.
I wonder Kingjaja if you agree that there is a noticeable uptick in Nigerians leaving the country.
There has been a mad rush to leave Nigeria since the 1980's, nothing new here. In the 80's, the IMF-mandated structural adjustment program decimated the middle-class, all sorts of hustlers, businessmen and opportunists followed suit.It also speaks of the cold reception those who have left years ago get upon their return. Besides the cold shoulder, they are often poorer than those who have stayed in Nigeria.
I wonder Kingjaja if you agree that there is a noticeable uptick in Nigerians leaving the country.
I have three brothers, they have all settled in the West. Most of my classmates in university / high school have settled abroad. Nigeria's best have left Nigeria.
Nice story Chowing !
The numbers seemed skewed and I wonder if the author intentionally left out refugees and asylum seekers from 94 to 2005. Cameroon reported over 60 thousand although the UN claims that some 8,000 returned in late 2005. USA and half of Europe data indicates another 82 thousand with no returnees.
Given the circumstances, I'm certain that most of the asylum applicants were legit and some that weren't, simply wanted to escape poor socioeconomic conditions (pretty routine for the region even now).
As for the cold shoulder returnees such as here with independence, most that stayed and endured felt those that left and came back with their fortunes and taste of freedom had abandoned their homeland. However, not many actually returned poorer than when they left.
If you want to blend in, take the bus
Boko Haram 'leader' turns President's appeal to set down an discuss matters and responds with threat. Just released on AP wire.
http://m.apnews.com/ap/db_260798/con...tguid=MdDAftjfLAGOS, Nigeria (AP) - The leader of a radical Islamist sect launching increasingly bloody attacks in Nigeria has rejected offers for a negotiated peace, instead promising to kidnap government officials' family members and bomb schools, according to an Internet audio message allegedly posted by the group......."If (Nigerian security forces) are going to places of worship and destroying them, like mosques and Quranic schools, you have primary schools as well, you have secondary schools and universities and we will start bombing them," Shekau said. "Touch us and see. That is what we will do."
I see in the report that the message was sent to Goodluck on Wednesday. Western reporters often late, maybe they take longer to check out story
Boko Haram in its own words.
From the Guardian:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012...ria-sharia-lawThe Islamist group Boko Haram, which has killed almost 1,000 people in Nigeria, will continue its campaign of violence until the country is ruled by sharia law, a senior member has told the Guardian.
"We will consider negotiation only when we have brought the government to their knees," the spokesman, Abu Qaqa, said in the group's first major interview with a western newspaper. "Once we see that things are being done according to the dictates of Allah, and our members are released [from prison], we will only put aside our arms – but we will not lay them down. You don't put down your arms in Islam, you only put them aside."
Qaqa, whose name is a pseudonym, said the group's members were spiritual followers of al-Qaida, and claimed they had met senior figures in the network founded by Osama bin Laden during visits to Saudia Arabia.
The interview comes a week after Boko Haram claimed responsibility for Nigeria's single deadliest terrorist attack, which killed 186 people in the northern city of Kano.
In an audio message posted on YouTube on Friday, the group's current leader, Abubakar Shekau, threatened to bomb schools and kidnap family members of government officials.
I am waiting for the Christian reaction, it is long overdue.
I only wish that the message was just upping the rhetoric. However, BH seem hell bent on backing up their words, and I have no doubt that they will.
Stay safe, Kingjaja.
Police arrest 160 Chadian mercenaries in Kano
Just a tad more intriguing that simply blaming everything on a defunct terrorist organization
“Many arrests have been made since the attacks. We have arrested around 200 attackers and 80 per cent of them are Chadians. They came in as mercenaries,” agency reports on Thursday quoted an anonymous police source to have said.
The source added that the Chadians were engaged and paid by the terrorist Islamic sect, Boko Haram, to participate in the Kano multiple attacks in which at least 250 people were feared killed.
However, the police are known to carry out indiscriminate arrests after major crimes and thus it is too early to say if the men arrested took part in the attacks.
“Following previous attacks by Boko Haram, the security forces have often resorted to dragnet arrests, rather than arresting people on the basis of reasonable suspicion that they committed an offence,” Amnesty International had said in a statement issued during the week.
If you want to blend in, take the bus
Forgive me, but I think that is BS. I doubt that the rank and file of BH are Chadians.
The Nigerian Police are as dishonest as they are incompetent. If they said they were Nigerians, the next question would be who are they, where do they come from and what ties do they have with the political elite?
Saying they are Chadians immediately deflects these questions.
On another note, BH seems to be the biggest thing going for AQ right now. The potential for damage and destabilisation is huge. BH is like a parasite on a very healthy host:
1. Nigeria is much richer than Somalia.
2. Nigeria is much more strategic than Somalia
3. Northern Nigeria is much more isolated than Somalia - i.e. it is more difficult (for a SEAL combat team) to get to N. Nigeria than it is to get to Somalia, the politics is also more complicated.
4. If you control N. Nigeria you can control the the Sahel.
The temptation to get involved in BH must be irresistible. In Somalia, you have the simple option of firing a few drones and doing periodic raids. You can't fire drones in N.Nigeria without destabilising Nigeria - and the Nigerian Military and Security Services are incompetent.
Expect the usual suspects to move over to Northern Nigeria (there is a Shuwa Arab population in Bornu State, so there wouldn't be too much problems hiding Arab jihadis).
I might be wrong, but I doubt it.
Finally, some people were nit-picking about the sophistication of the attacks. They don't need to be too sophisticated to operate successfully in Nigeria at this point in time.
Also they might not be too concerned about Westerners now, they are in the hearts and minds stage right now - they know that every successful attack leads to brutal and indiscriminate response by the Nigerian Military, winning converts for them. They tried this in Damaturu, Maiduguri and now Kano, it works like a charm.
Unfortunately, Southern Nigeria isn't too bothered by Boko Haram as long as they don't cross the river. The Middle Belt however, is where the first set of pitched battles will take place.
Faltering al-Qaeda turns to Boko Haram
More on that:
http://www.magharebia.com/cocoon/awi...7/reportage-01It was a very different Sahel security summit this week for the foreign ministers of Mali, Mauritania, Algeria, Niger and guest Nigeria.
The countries confirmed the link between al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and Nigerian terrorist organisation Boko Haram for the first time, pledging Tuesday (January 24th) in Nouakchott to work together against the shared threat to African stability and development.
Four days earlier, Boko Haram (meaning "western education is forbidden") killed more than 200 people in a series of co-ordinated bomb and gun attacks in Kano, Nigeria's second-largest city.
Scores more have died in attacks on churches, hotels and public buildings since the start of the year. Human Rights Watch says that 550 people were killed last year in 115 separate attacks engineered by Boko Haram, including the UN bombing in Abuja.
"There is a proven connection between AQIM and Boko Haram," Malian Foreign Minister Soumeylou Boubye Maga said at the Nouakchott ministerial meeting.
Nigerian foreign minister Mohamed Bazoum said he was concerned about the situation in his country, due to the rise of Boko Haram, whose connections to AQIM were "more than just simple conjecture".
I am tracking with you there. The government can ill-afford to continually give BH Nigerians the credit for these attacks. By rounding up Chadians and placing blame on them, the government is attempting to accomplish several things:
1. showing that they are not ineffective (wow, we rounded up a bunch of easily spotted Chadians).
2. placing the blame outside of Nigeria (these foreigners are the ones causing the trouble)
3. they are not rounding up BH members (maybe BH will not hit back at us so hard if it is Chadians that we arrest)
4. deflecting attention away from the political elite in the north (they are still too hot a potato to deal with)
I agree. There is no way that AQ is not going to be interested in what is going on in northern Nigeria. You have stated good reasons for them to be involved. How much involvement? Who knows? How much involvement is dangerous? Even the slightest involvement is dangerous:
1. BH can use the belief of AQ involvement as a recruiting tool.
2. Expertise in weapons expertise and strategy planning, even in small doses, can lead to horrendous bombings.
Kingjaja, you state that
Lagos is one of the largest (soon to be the largest) target on the planet in terms of population. Is security any better there? Or, is it just a matter of time before BH strikes that metacity?
Last edited by Chowing; 01-28-2012 at 04:33 PM.
Lagos is ethnic Yoruba. Although Lagos has a significant Islamic population, Yorubas practice a more tolerant form of Islam than the Hausa-Fulani. For example, in a family it is not unusual to see the father going to Church while the mother and some of the children are Muslims.
(A bit like Islam in Sierra Leone)
Secondly, BH needs a permissive environment to operate - they can hide very easily in N. Nigeria, but Hausa-Fulanis stick out like a sore thumb in S. Nigeria (not to you guys, but we can tell the difference in an instant). So, it is extremely easy to pick out suspicious characters.
Does that mean that BH cannot pull off a successful strike in Lagos? No, but that strike is likely to be the last, because it will trigger an avalanche of reprisal killings - all Hausas are likely to be fair game. So the Hausa community in Lagos is extremely motivated in ensuring that it does not happen.
(All major ethnic groups in Southern Nigeria are represented in Lagos. The impact of a successful hit on Nigeria's unity and the economy is best imagined. It would very easily send Nigeria on the road to Sierra Leone)
This doesn't mean that Abubakar Shekau and his ilk don't see Lagos as a tantalising target, but it will be much more difficult for them to pull off Lagos.
There also is a political component to BH, it makes no sense to attack Lagos and risk uniting the entire South and Middle Belt against the North. A successful attack on Lagos is likely to hurt the North more than it hurts Jonathan.
All said, AQ probably has Nigeria firmly in its sights. This is an exciting new project for them. AQ has a lot of experience dealing with Muslim-majority nations, this is new; a 50-50, Muslim-Christian nation in the least governed continent on earth.
I am trying to guess how they'll approach this tantalizing new frontier. Triggering a nation-wide sectarian crisis would deflect attention from them and leave them free to roam the Sahel. On the other hand, less "jihadist" elements in BH might decide that carving out space in Northern Nigeria is sufficient - no need to proceed South.
The greatest unknown is how the Christian population in Northern Nigeria will react. The Nigerian Government could secretly train and arm them to put pressure on BH (If you notice, many of the top positions in the Military are occupied by Northern Christians and Southerners).
Touché !
While I somewhat agree, I did and still do conclude some consider BH something they are not. And, I submit, the Chadian twist is certainly more believable that the BH simply getting better in 2 years by reading books on the tactics of others.
Although I seriously doubt the USN or USA (Army) would involve themselves in Nigeria, I'm more than certain that the Bin Laden raid was a little more difficult than that of Northern Nigeria in the terms you have concluded above.
I don't get your point herein.
That is and still would be me. This latest round of activities has yet to change my mind, but that should not be an issue as it seems you have concluded otherwise. I'm not here to change your mind and BH has yet to produce sound and clear evidence of their capabilities. Mercenaries with decades of fighting in the open desert is a lot more believable albeit unlikely as you put.
We seem to go back and forth here on this issue. I don't see BH remotely interested in the Westerners and their statements have yet to even elude to wanting them.
Lastly, your press won't even call them terrorists. Other than some bloggers, nobody seems to conclude they are. Why would I ?
If you want to blend in, take the bus
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