Reports on the growth of the ANA and ANP; expansion of VSO sites and ALP growth; numbers of HVTs taken in night raids and drone strikes, areas "cleared", development projects completed, rises or drops in numbers of various types of attacks, etc, etc are all reported with what I believe is good faith honesty.

My gripe is that we focus on and measure the wrong things. We are making tremendous progress, but that does not equate necessarily to success. As the old saying goes, "we don't know where we're going, but we're making good time!" I have my own opinion on how to succeed in Afghanistan, and it is a minority one. The one held by senior leaders in country is a majority one in military circles. It is reasoanble, though I believe, misguided.

Some believe success demands hard action against Pakistan. Military leaders can't do much about that.

Some believe success demands hard pressure on Karzai to reform governance to better include those not affiliated with the old Northern Alliance. Military leaders can't do much about that either.

We have a flawed fundamental understanding of the problem, we have an inflated perspective on the dangers of the problem, and we have an overall strategic design shaped by those two miscalulations. That we are off track is to be expected, and no amount of hard military effort can fix that. This is all exacerbated by a military organization caught up in the inertia of its own doctrine, history and sense of "what works."

I agree that this conflict is not going well, but also recognize that until generals are willing to go to the White House and argue for a radical change of policy, rather than minor changes of manning and tactics, that is unlikely to change. We don't need a MacArthur who can only see success in expanding the fight; but rather a Roberts (Great Britain, 1880), who recognizes that the greatest success comes from simply walking away and being willing to work with whoever happens to be incharge if something important should happen to come up at some point in the future.

My advice to President Obama? Listen to General Roberts. For those unfamiliar with that advice:

"We have nothing to fear from Afghanistan,
and the best thing to do is to leave it as
much as possible to itself. It may not be very
flattering to our 'amour propre', but I feel
sure I am right when I say that the less the
Afghans see of us the less they will dislike us.

Should Russia in future years attempt to
conquer Afghanistan, or invade India
through it, we should have a better chance
of attaching the Afghans to our interest if
we avoid all interference with them in the
meantime." Lord Frederick “Bobs” Roberts of Kandahar, 1880