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Old 11-20-2011   #361
Ken White
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Default Different strokes...

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Originally Posted by Misifus View Post
Still not relevant Ken.
We can differ, You're knowledgeable on the industry, I'm knowledgeable on the level of US expats in Iran in the late 60s and early 70s.
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Hmm. Actually you appear to have entered the thread in confrontational mode, and now you apparently wish to escalate it.
Not so, I entered it to share some knowledge on an essentially off thread issue, no more -- and in so doing, I agreed with your premise...
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And you are a mod? I was surprised to see your confrontation with JMA as well. Now you want another confrontation. Let me ask you this, do y'all plan attack strategies on your moderator board when there are opinions and/or facts stated that don't agree with y'all's consensus? Is there Group Think going on over there? I already have been told that there is a sub-group of about five members that engages in such. Is posting here a team sport?
Yes. No, wrong I do not; IMO on this sub issue, you are the seeker of confrontation for whatever reason. No. Your statement isn't correct, IIRC, I recall you were told that another poster had asked several people what they thought. No -- unless someone decides to flick off everyone in view...
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I think that is a horde. But the more likely number is everybody that was a Liberal at the time, so I would guess 50%.
We can disagree on that as well though I acknowledge I was sorta middle aged at the time -- the college crowd did feel that way, most of us did not as I recall.
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Did you just say MAAG? According to Stan, and I know you were following the thread, we aren't supposed to use MAAG anymore. Stan where are you?
Stan's smart enough to realize that in talking about the 60s and 70s there were still plenty of MAAGs about. Now there are very few.
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Besides, Ken, I was commenting on your '77, now you introduce '70. Holding back on us?
Not at all. I introduced '77 because several people there at the time told me how things went and that was the time it did indeed get rolling so many, worldwide, were aware -- yet the idiots in DC were in denial. I later and separately introduced '70 -- again agreeing with you -- to point out that the threads were and are picked up by those who are supposed to spot them long before they hit public awareness or even official acknowledgement.
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Well then thanks for the drive-by shooting.
No drive by. I'm still here, still agree with your premise that many are aware before the official community knows or announces -- and wonder why you object to that agreement?
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Old 11-20-2011   #362
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Ken,

Re-read the thread in a day or two. Our conversation was actually fine. Simply a discussion of what is and what is not an "oil company" and/or an oil company "executive."

Things went south when the direction of the discussion started invoking the word you followed by a disparaging descriptor. Specifically, you initiated hostility with the following:

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In your rush to be confrontational and show what an independent thinker you are you must've missed that.
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Not stopping by, was here before you arrived and will probably be here after you're gone. As was true for a lot of snide young LTs with delusions of grandeur -- and more than a few old Colonels as well. Many of whom wasted time and effort telling me I didn't understand the issue...
It appears you simply got irritated at being debated with, hence you resorted to personalization.

In fact looking at other threads where there has been hostility. Generally one will find that the hostile action begins when one invokes the word you followed by a disparaging descriptor. I don't initiate Ken, I only retaliate.

In any case, I consider the subject closed.
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Old 11-20-2011   #363
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Default Closed it is.

FWIW, I do not object to disagreement but I do tend to bridle at what I perceive as condescension. I stated my opinion of a generic posting style and of an equally generic attitude that often appear to contain that, to me, unnecessary detractor from discussion.

I acknowledge that use of the word 'you' without the qualifier that's it's a generic "you" -- or even better, writing 'one' instead -- is provocative. My error. I apologize for the personalization.
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Old 11-20-2011   #364
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Default Leave my chest out of this...

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Originally Posted by Bill Moore View Post
Would appreciate it if you both could get back on topic and away from the chest bumping.
As the Actress said to the Bishop...

Nor do I know enough about Mexico to enter this thread...
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Old 11-24-2011   #365
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Posted by Misifus,

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Mier is the main incident given to support the article's thesis. For this type of expository prose IT IS THIS TOWN that matters since that is the town supporting the thesis. If he's got another town that supports his thesis, I am all ears. The article should not have been released, the article is wrong.
Bringing the thread back to the article originally posted, and Misifus's challenge to the author's research. The articles below actually support the article's claim, and as expected most Phd's know how to do research and wouldn't sacrifice their credibility by posted an article/study that wasn't supportable (doesn't mean right, but at least they back up their arguments).

http://www.mcallen-news.com/tag/ciudad-mier/page/2/

Quote:
SEDENA officials reported that five of the attacking gunmen were killed in the battle.

Authorities seized nine high-powered rifles, more than 11,000 rounds of ammunition and two vehicles that had been reported stolen.

Ciudad Mier is located in an area across the border from the Zapata and Starr County lines.

Dozens of people have been killed in Ciudad Mier and other communities that make up the "Frontera Chica" since February.

The region has been plagued by violence between former allies the Gulf Cartel and Los Zetas, who are fighting for control of lucrative drug trafficking routes.

The Mexican Army and Navy have reported clashes with groups of armed men in the area as well.
The Mexican Army may be there, but based on this and other reports I think it an argument can be made that control has not been established.

http://www.mysanantonio.com/slidesho...p#photo-476547

Slide 13 states only half the population has returned.

http://www.borderlandbeat.com/2011/0...chapter-9.html

Quote:
Someday someone will tell of the heroic stories of so many brave nameless people that this war has produced in Tamaulipas, like this woman.

During that time, Ciudad Mier was not only a town without police: but it was also was a town with no schools, no banks, no stores, no doctors, and no pharmacies, because most of all services and businesses were closed for the most part of the nine months.

Truckloads of people with suitcases and bags fled the town of Cd Mier. The Archdiocese was also attempting to flee Ciudad Mier leaving the city without a priest, but, despite the order of his superiors, the local priest was the only one in Frontera Chica who refused to leave his temple during the fighting. The loneliness of Ciudad Mier was so much that the mayor only visited city hall twice a week, and the rest of the days he spent in Roma, Texas, or any other distant secure place.
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Old 11-29-2011   #366
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Moore View Post
Bringing the thread back to the article originally posted, and Misifus's challenge to the author's research. The articles below actually support the article's claim, and as expected most Phd's know how to do research and wouldn't sacrifice their credibility by posted an article/study that wasn't supportable (doesn't mean right, but at least they back up their arguments)...
There is no justification for the author's claim, nor does the linkology you provided justify the author's thesis.
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Old 11-30-2011   #367
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Default Criminal Insurgencies in Mexico and the Americas

Criminal Insurgencies in Mexico and the Americas

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Old 12-01-2011   #368
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Default Book Review: Cartel: The Coming Invasion of Mexico’s Drug Wars

Book Review: Cartel: The Coming Invasion of Mexico’s Drug Wars

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Old 12-17-2011   #369
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Default Republicans Propose Bill to Treat Mexican Drug Cartels as 'Terrorist Insurgency'

Republicans Propose Bill to Treat Mexican Drug Cartels as 'Terrorist Insurgency'

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Old 01-29-2012   #370
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Default Mexico

What will it take, what kind of Black Swan event, for Hemispheric security to achieve equal status with the Middle East or Asia Pacific? For those whose immediate reaction is increased commerce, the last time I checked, our largest export/import partners included Canada and Mexico. Which institution is more to blame for the willful blindness currently afflicting us - DoD or the larger USG?
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Old 02-16-2012   #371
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Tinker Tailor Soldier Kingpin: How Sinaloa cartel boss 'El Chapo' Guzmán got U.S. agents to help him become Mexico’s most powerful drug lord, by Aram Roston. Newsweek, 30 January 2012.
Quote:
Most criminals who become informants do so because they’ve been arrested and squeezed, encouraged to betray their criminal employers in exchange for leniency. But this man had an unusual story to tell about his first encounter with U.S. federal agents. It was his boss, a top manager at the Sinaloa cartel, who encouraged him to help the Americans. Meet with the U.S. investigators, he was told. See how we can help them with information.

At the time, Guzmán’s huge Sinaloa organization was in the middle of a savage war, trying to crush the Vicente Carrillo Fuentes cartel, known as the VCF. And the Sinaloa cartel wanted to pass along information about its enemies to American agents.

The drug dealer told me how, acting with the full approval of his cartel, he strolled into the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) office for an appointment with federal investigators. He walked through a metal detector and past the portrait of the American president on the wall, then into a room with a one-way mirror. The agents he met were very polite. He was surprised by what they had to say. “One of the ICE agents said they were here to help [the Sinaloa cartel]. And to f### the Vicente Carrillo cartel. Sorry for the language. That’s exactly what they said.”

So began another small chapter in one of the most secretive aspects of the drug war: an extensive operation by Chapo Guzmán’s forces to manipulate American law enforcement to their own benefit.
Is this a counterintelligence failure or just the nature of the ‘war on drugs’?
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Old 02-21-2012   #372
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Mexico's Burgeoning Economy Amid Drug Violence

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There have been reports about Mexico's thriving economy amid continuing drug violence. Does this sort of ambivalence truly exist in Mexico right now?

It is true. Mexico is a place that's seen a huge escalation in violence. Under President Felipe Calderon over the last five years, we've seen almost 50,000 people killed in drug-related murders. But at the same time, Mexico's economy has actually been doing quite well since the end of the global recession. Mexico was the hardest hit in Latin America but it's recovered quite quickly, and in part it's been due to a huge boom in manufacturing along the border tied to U.S. companies and to U.S. consumers.

We've seen a boom in tourism. There have been record levels of tourists over the last year in Mexico--to its beaches, to its colonial cities, and to Mexico City. And we've also seen the benefit of high oil prices as Mexico still produces a good amount of oil and much of it for the United States ...
I wonder to what extent NAFTA has changed the Mexican economy and thus Mexico itself. Trade with the U.S. and Canada has skyrocketed - is it any wonder that this would include illegal drugs as well as car parts, with a corresponding increase in the sophistication and capabilities of Mexican organized crime?
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Old 02-21-2012   #373
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http://www.stanford.edu/group/progre...cgi-bin/?p=521

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By far, the people most hurt by a blow to the drug cartels would be the rural poor in certain areas of Mexico. According to Ms. Rios: “drug traffic cash flows are in fact helping some Mexican communities to somehow alleviate a grinding stage of poverty and underdevelopment. In fact, for almost all drug-producing communities, the drug traffic industry seems to be the only source of income.” This is partly due to the nature of drug cultivation, which, in many ways, is similar to farming. As of the late 1990′s, roughly 300,000 peasants were employed in drug production. The National Farm Workers’ Union (UNTA) estimates a number around 600,000. The importance of drugs in the area is nothing new. The earliest documented poppy production in the state of Sinaloa, called “the heart of Mexican drug country” by Newsweek, was in 1886. The extent of this dependence was illustrated in 1976, when a joint operation by the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency and the Mexican government was organized. Called “Operacion Condor”, it involved helicopters that would spray (and ruin) poppy and marijuana fields. The operation caused such immediate economic destabilization in the region that the Mexican government indefinitely halted the project. This dependence on drug cultivation, especially on the labor-intensive process of processing poppy gum, still exists today.

Given the close ties between drug revenues and the economy, it is not entirely surprising to see some support for cartels in certain areas. Drug organizations have begun to provide psuedo-governments in certain towns, and sometimes win the support of locals by positive means. Of course, terror tactics, including a rising trend of beheadings, death threats, and atrocities, balance these. Still, a dependence on drug money establishes what some call an “artificial economy” that may simply disappear as the drug war goes on.
http://www.economywatch.com/in-the-n...ars.01-02.html

Global Warming impacts the Cartels


Quote:
The number of illegal marijuana plantations in Northern Mexico has “declined considerably” over the last few months, told a Mexican army commander to the Associated Press on Tuesday, as a devastating drought continues to wreck havoc on the country’s water supply to both its population and cropland.


"We can see a lot less (marijuana plantations) than in other years," said General Pedro Gurrola, commander of armed forces in the state of Sinaloa. With water supply scarce, many marijuana crops have also dried up, added General Gurrola, whose forces conducts regular surveillance flights across the country to seek out any illicit drug plantations.
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Old 02-23-2012   #374
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Default Rain, or lack thereof...

makes absolutely no difference to the huge meth production ops run by Sinaloa primarily, but also by La Familia Michoacana, Los Caballeros Templarios, and Los Zetas. Huge labs in Sinaloa, Durango, Jalisco, Nayarit, Michoacán, Guanajuato states, but now also popping up in Sonora.

And then there's the poppies...Mexico appears to have moved into second place behind Afghanistan for poppy cultivation and heroin production - and a number of the chem precursors and reagents used for meth synthesis also are used for heroin production.

And then there's the cocaine...

Whether due to interdiction, weather, eradication, or escalated conflict, we see large upswings in the high-value/low-volume narcotics whenever marijuana smuggling drops.

As for the economic impact, that's where geopolitical realities come firmly into play. Whether you're talking the Fox or Calderon administrations, or whomever follows next, the GOM is stuck between a rock and a US place. The Mexican drug trafficking trade (et al) brings in anywhere from 30-50 billion USD per year into the economy (a very hefty 20% or so), and the GOM has to strike a careful balance. The USG pressured (and continues to pressure) the GOM to kill the goose that's been pooping out golden eggs. But when Calderon started targeting cartel leadership he created power vacuums that destabilised what had been until about 2004 a thriving drug trade that only experienced localised turf wars on rather a small scale.

Now the violence, fracturing and fragmentation of the original family-centric organisations that sprang from the Guadalajara cartel has spiralled so far out of control - directly due to Calderon's initiatives (and I seriously doubt that anyone in the GOM in 2006 had any clue what they started) - the genie can't be shoved back into the bottle.
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Old 02-29-2012   #375
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Texas Observer - The Deadliest Place in Mexico

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... For decades, this lucrative smuggling corridor, or “plaza,” was controlled by the Juarez cartel. In 2008, Mexico’s largest, most powerful syndicate—the Sinaloa cartel, run by Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman—declared war on the Juarez cartel and moved in to take over the territory. The federal government sent in the military to quell the violence. Instead the murder rate in the state of Chihuahua exploded. The bloodshed in the city of Juarezm made international news. It was dubbed the “deadliest city in the world.” So much blood was being shed in Juarez that few outside the region noticed the violence spilling into the rural valley to the east, where killings and atrocities began to occur on a daily basis. Police officers, political leaders and community activists were shot down in the streets. By 2009, the valley, with a population of 20,000, had a shocking murder rate of 1,600 per 100,000 inhabitants—six times higher than its neighboring “deadliest city in the world”—according to government estimates. In one particularly gruesome stretch in 2010, several valley residents were stabbed in the face with ice picks, and a local man aligned with the Juarez cartel was skewered with an iron bar, riddled with bullets, then roasted over an open fire. The Juarez newspapers began to call the rural farming region the “Valley of Death ...”
The story is focused on the Juarez Valley and how the massive violence in the region was brought by what has been theorized before - the Sinaloa Cartel's conquest of the smuggling corridor through the violent extermination of the Juarez Cartel, allied with the Mexican Army. The story posits a disturbing thesis - that the Sinaloa Cartel and the Mexican Army are working hand in glove.
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Old 03-01-2012   #376
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Default While disturbing, it's not just a thesis...

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Texas Observer - The Deadliest Place in Mexico

The story is focused on the Juarez Valley and how the massive violence in the region was brought by what has been theorized before - the Sinaloa Cartel's conquest of the smuggling corridor through the violent extermination of the Juarez Cartel, allied with the Mexican Army. The story posits a disturbing thesis - that the Sinaloa Cartel and the Mexican Army are working hand in glove.
The Sinaloa cartel has the Mexican army and the Federal Police heavily infiltrated in the western half of the country, and some would argue that Chapo owns the Federales. But in their areas of control in the eastern half of the country the same can be said of Los Zetas, regarding infiltration of and/or influence over the army. It's not clear to me to what extent Los Z has influence with the state police, but Z support networks have long involved municipal police.
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Old 03-04-2012   #377
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Default Mexico's Challenges: Lessons in the War Against Organized Crime

Mexico's Challenges: Lessons in the War Against Organized Crime

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Old 03-05-2012   #378
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Default Five Ps for a Violence Reduction Strategy in Mexico (Part I)

Five Ps for a Violence Reduction Strategy in Mexico (Part I)

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Old 03-07-2012   #379
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Default Five Ps for a Violence Reduction Strategy in Mexico (Part II)

Five Ps for a Violence Reduction Strategy in Mexico (Part II)

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Old 03-09-2012   #380
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Default Five Ps for a Violence Reduction Strategy in Mexico (Part III)

Five Ps for a Violence Reduction Strategy in Mexico (Part III)

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