Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
Let's take a step back and look at the bigger picture - how does this thing end?
Plausible scenarios:

1. Insurgency runs out of steam. Northerners realise that they want a future for their children more than they want to give the police a black eye. BH is run out of town. Jonathan consolidates his position.

2. BH succeeds, aggravates the rift that already exists between Christian and Muslim in Nigeria. Northern Christians call up on Christians in the South to rise to their defence. Polarisation intensifies, hostilities commence. Nigeria ceases to exist as a united entity.

Given the ineptitude of the Nigerian security services these are the two most possible scenarios. Which one do you think is likely to occur?
I wouldn't want to speculate on probabilities.

There's a third plausible scenario, of course: stalemate, with recurring outbreaks of sectarian violence but neither side able to gain a decisive victory.

A fourth scenario would be to have the government apply sufficient force to suppress BH, then follow up with a large scale investment program designed to undermine support for radical movements. Guess that's not too plausible.

I'll be curious to see how BH evolves, assuming they're successful with initial objectives. If they do succeed in kicking off a full-blown insurgency or sectarian conflict, they will have to evolve into a more overtly political movement, or else a parallel political movement may emerge and eclipse them. Will BH morph into a Nigerian version of the Muslim Brotherhood?

A terrorist group is a useful vehicle for starting conflict. To exploit that conflict and pursue political goal the terrorist group has to become something else. Can BH make that transition?