I wouldn't want to speculate on probabilities.
There's a third plausible scenario, of course: stalemate, with recurring outbreaks of sectarian violence but neither side able to gain a decisive victory.
A fourth scenario would be to have the government apply sufficient force to suppress BH, then follow up with a large scale investment program designed to undermine support for radical movements. Guess that's not too plausible.
I'll be curious to see how BH evolves, assuming they're successful with initial objectives. If they do succeed in kicking off a full-blown insurgency or sectarian conflict, they will have to evolve into a more overtly political movement, or else a parallel political movement may emerge and eclipse them. Will BH morph into a Nigerian version of the Muslim Brotherhood?
A terrorist group is a useful vehicle for starting conflict. To exploit that conflict and pursue political goal the terrorist group has to become something else. Can BH make that transition?
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