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#1 |
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Council Member
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Boston, MA
Posts: 409
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It goes fairly deep into sociological and psychological ideas. There are no direct references to any current operations so it is dull reading. It is not for the faint at heart. Also my grammar sucks. If anyone wants to peruse it and provide some feedback as to whether this is something than can be adopted for the field, might be handy for strategists to know, or could be shoved down the throat of an idealistic policy guru who is advocating intervention in a place we probably should not go, I would appreciate their your feedback.
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"I can change almost anything ... but I can't change human nature." Jon Osterman/Dr. Manhattan --- A plan without action is a Daydream, Action without a plan is a Nightmare. Chinese Proverb --- "There is no Good and Evil, there is only Power, and those who are too weak to seek it" Lord Voldemort |
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#2 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 7
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Thanks for sharing - will definitely read it. I think you have the right idea that you can't impose order by the top down, or create a social ecosystem by force of will. But there may be points of leverage - if the physical and cognitive situation is understood well enough - where you can apply gain some influence over emergent social patterns, even if you can't control them. I ask the same question often - is there a set of basic geographic, social, and economic prerequisites for groups and societies to achieve stability? Can we use this knowledge to better predict the feasibility and extent to which we can "nudge" a system we'll never completely control towards patterns of complimentary adaptation that we describe as desired political outcomes? If we don't have an answer to this, it's hard to say how killing people and breaking things (or even building roads and schools) will achieve a better peace in the long run.
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#3 |
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Council Member
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Latitude 17° 5' 11N, Longitude 120° 54' 24E, altitude 1499m. Right where I want to be.
Posts: 2,554
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You've probably seen this, but a recent article by Steven Metz in the Journal looked at Maslow's Hierarchy and participation in insurgency, closely related...
http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art...-in-insurgency
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“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary” H.L. Mencken |
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#4 |
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Council Member
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Boston, MA
Posts: 409
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I have. I liked his basic premise and the way he broke up the elements of the insurgency based on their own reasoning for being involved. Too many times we think there is only one group or one way people think. They are only motivated by a liberal belief in human rights. Not really the case. Also means that any solution has to be uniquely tailored to the environment.
I was listening to NPR today, it sounded like a replay of a BBC program where the question was asked about whether it was OK to question politicians on their religious convictions or interpretations of the scriptures. The reporter asked whether asking those questions was reasonable since the US was a secular nation and the response was that the US was not securlar, never was, and that the founding fathers made that clear in their consistent references to all rights and liberties being granted to us by God. Not sure that all Amercian's would agree with that but at least some here think our nation's legitimacy is built on religion, not liberalism. If a person assumes the whole country is like that they might come up with a bad plan.
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"I can change almost anything ... but I can't change human nature." Jon Osterman/Dr. Manhattan --- A plan without action is a Daydream, Action without a plan is a Nightmare. Chinese Proverb --- "There is no Good and Evil, there is only Power, and those who are too weak to seek it" Lord Voldemort Last edited by TheCurmudgeon; 02-25-2012 at 09:41 PM. |
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#5 |
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Council Member
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Latitude 17° 5' 11N, Longitude 120° 54' 24E, altitude 1499m. Right where I want to be.
Posts: 2,554
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I'd say any time people in one country speculate on the bases of political legitimacy in another country they tread upon thin ice... and that action based on such speculation is likely to result in a plunge into cold water.
One of the odder quirks or recent American thinking on such matters is the idea that "hearts and minds" can be "won" by "providing services". People don't generally fight their government because they aren't getting services, especially in places where expectations of government are historically low. People fight their government because they fear it, they're angry at it, or both. Providing service isn't likely to dissipate fear or anger unless some effort is made to figure out why people are afraid and/or angry, and correct those conditions.
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“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary” H.L. Mencken |
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#6 |
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Council Member
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Florida
Posts: 2,422
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This an area where Dayuhan and I share a similar perspective. It is not the services one receives or does not receive; nor is it whether one is rich or poor: It is how one feels about such things, and who one blames.
When the US jumps into the middle of another country to either overthrow, demand changes, or sustain some despot we put ourselves squarely on the proverbial "blame line" for any segment of the affected populace that is coming up short in that transaction.
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Robert C. Jones Intellectus Supra Scientia "The modern COIN mindset is when one arrogantly goes to some foreign land and attempts to make those who live there a lesser version of one's self. The FID mindset is when one humbly goes to some foreign land and seeks first to understand, and then to help in some small way for those who live there to be the best version of their own self." Colonel Robert C. Jones, US Army Special Forces (Retired) |
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#7 |
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Council Member
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Estonia
Posts: 3,582
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As well intended as the soldiers on the ground are, and how carefully the call for support is thought out and planned, the govt has some other plans (that's what we thought).
In the early 70s in South America our team assessed the need for electrical power and more ammo. On an abandoned air strip the 130 came in low and dumped two pallets of 6 volt batteries and a sierra load of 7.62 blank cartridges. We had asked for two 60kw generators and 10,000 rounds of 5.56. Later in 94 with over 4,000 refugees dying a day from heat exhaustion and cholera, we sent out the call for water and antibiotics. The 7th SOS complied and yet another 130 buzzed low over the banana fields dumping a pallet of dry biscuits, flour and a pallet of warm baby clothes. It was 40 degrees C. with 1,000% humidity ![]() Later, much later, a C5 from California flew in fire trucks. At least we could now pump water (from a dead lake). Seems it doesn't really matter that most of us "there" know what to do without even considering what Uncle Maslow would have thought
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There are very few problems, which cannot be solved by the suitable application of High Explosives
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#8 |
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Council Member
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Boston, MA
Posts: 409
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Someday I am going to have to do look at why military people remember the miserable and chose to share it so often. I know of no other group that enjoys talking about all the things that go wrong as much as the military do (maybe the police).
![]() BTW, I have visions of Solders trying to place two pallets of six volt batteries end to end to get the power they needed.
__________________
"I can change almost anything ... but I can't change human nature." Jon Osterman/Dr. Manhattan --- A plan without action is a Daydream, Action without a plan is a Nightmare. Chinese Proverb --- "There is no Good and Evil, there is only Power, and those who are too weak to seek it" Lord Voldemort |
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#9 | ||
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Council Member
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Estonia
Posts: 3,582
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I'd have to say that NGOs and Rescue bitch far more and love "it" when it sucks ! Maslow would have us embracing mistakes in the hopes of being rewarded with some happiness myth - he obviously never served in the Army ![]() Quote:
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There are very few problems, which cannot be solved by the suitable application of High Explosives
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#10 | |
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Council Member
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Boston, MA
Posts: 409
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Quote:
... bonfires and blanks go well together. Bonfires are not just for making HUGE cultural mistakes you know...
__________________
"I can change almost anything ... but I can't change human nature." Jon Osterman/Dr. Manhattan --- A plan without action is a Daydream, Action without a plan is a Nightmare. Chinese Proverb --- "There is no Good and Evil, there is only Power, and those who are too weak to seek it" Lord Voldemort |
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#11 |
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Council Member
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Boston, MA
Posts: 409
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I have come to the conclusion that there are at least two potential sources of social unrest. The first is a mismatch of legitimacy. The second is a feeling of injustice. The mismatch of legitimacy is tied to Maslow's hierarchy but the feeling of injustice does not depend on the level of need being satisfied. It is a static motivation, like religion. It is not hierarchical that I can determine.
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"I can change almost anything ... but I can't change human nature." Jon Osterman/Dr. Manhattan --- A plan without action is a Daydream, Action without a plan is a Nightmare. Chinese Proverb --- "There is no Good and Evil, there is only Power, and those who are too weak to seek it" Lord Voldemort |
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#12 | |
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Council Member
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: On the Lunatic Fringe
Posts: 1,114
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Quote:
By this I mean that the perceiver's distinction is drawn based on the perceived source or cause of the injustice. If I go to the grocery story and think that my milk costs me too much, then this may spark a feeling of injustice but not necessarily a feeling of illegitimacy. I may just think that my grocer is ripping me off or that thestore's chain is making too much profit at my expense. However, if I further reflect on the issue and decide that the reason the milk costs too much is because the government has applied price controls to milk in order to ensure that dairy farmers in Alaska make a profit, I may start to feel that my government is illegitimate,( especially if the city of Cambridge just raised the cost of my vendor's license and I'm not getting some form of price support for the wicker baskets I sell from my pushcart near the Coop in Harvard Yard while the Pier One store in Porter Square is getting a tax break for renovating its building). Based on the above, I would submit that, vis-a-vis the elements of Maslow's hierarchy, feelings of illegitimacy are more likely to be static than those of injustice. (By static I mean that it is not found at different levels of the hierarchy and is unlikely to vary in intensity; I'm unsure that this is the same meaning that The Curmudgeon uses.) I might well feel a sense of injustice at a failure to be satisfied at any level of the hierarchy. However, I think people need to be somewhat more satisfied in the lower level needs before they will push the analysis to the second order of causation that I have suggested is required to sense illegtimacy. The history of revolutionary movements seems to bear this out; such movements typically have arisen with members of the more satisfied classes of society--upper and upper-middle class students for example. Their basic needs have been satisifed, allowing them the time to reflect more deeply on the causes of injustice they see around them. I would further suggest that feelings of injustice are inversely proportioonal to where one finds them in the hierearchy. That is, the lower on the hierarchy they are found,the greater they are as motivating factor in social unrest. In other words, if I feel injustice at the level of physiological or safety need satisfaction, I am more likely to act to remedy that injustice than if I feel injustice at the esteem or self-actualization level. However, merely having the feeling of injustice is usually insufficient to cause one to act to remedy the injustice. Some spark or catalyst is still needed to cause one to act. I propose that neither the sense of illegitimacy nor the desire to act to remedy injustice usually arises spontanteously in most of us. It must be stimulated by someone else--the so-called outside agitator. The causal nexus for the apppearance of these agitators, when couched in terms of Maslow's hierarchy, is that such people have been unable to attain satisfaction of their love and belonging needs in what most people would considered a socially acceptable way. Therefore, as a method to achieve some sense of belonging, these people create a cause and convince others to join them in trying to realize the goals of the cause. The cause may be something relatively innocuous, like "Save the Whales." However, over time it may become much less innocuous as members of the group choose the means of achieving the cause's ends--mnoving from printing and distributing pamphlets to sinking whaling ships, for example. What the mechanism is that leads to the degeneration of the means to the group's ends into actions with less and less social acceptablility is not clear to me. I suspect that it might have something to do with the fact that the love and belonging need is still felt to be unsatisfied by at least a subset of those who join the movement, which becomes yet another instance of a feeling of injustice and requires the holder of that feeling to "act out" even more vigorously.
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Vir prudens non contra ventum mingit The greatest educational dogma is also its greatest fallacy: the belief that what must be learned can necessarily be taught. — Sydney J. Harris |
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#13 | ||||
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Council Member
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Boston, MA
Posts: 409
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Thanks for your thoughtful reply. When trying to determine what makes an average person decide to risk his own life to effect political change it seems that they have to be tied to a strong emotional response like the kind you feel when you suffer an injustice.
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This means that there are two types of injustices at work. The first is personal based on an injustice you suffer. These are tied directly to lower level Maslovian needs/Schwartz values. The second is injustice suffered by others which only affects those who have had their lower level needs satisfied and now feel the effect of higher level needs/values. Quote:
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BTW, are you in Boston?
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"I can change almost anything ... but I can't change human nature." Jon Osterman/Dr. Manhattan --- A plan without action is a Daydream, Action without a plan is a Nightmare. Chinese Proverb --- "There is no Good and Evil, there is only Power, and those who are too weak to seek it" Lord Voldemort Last edited by TheCurmudgeon; 03-01-2012 at 02:52 PM. |
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#14 | |
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Council Member
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Boston, MA
Posts: 409
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Quote:
Also, what is an injustice is tied to need level. For example, in some societies inequity between the rich and the poor is associated with birth right. If I am born into a landed aristocratic family what is considered 'just' for me is significantly different from what is considered 'just' for a poor commoner. Those of us whose value system is based on individual achievement find this abhorrent. An example nepotism has been the standard for centuries, now it is considered passe.
__________________
"I can change almost anything ... but I can't change human nature." Jon Osterman/Dr. Manhattan --- A plan without action is a Daydream, Action without a plan is a Nightmare. Chinese Proverb --- "There is no Good and Evil, there is only Power, and those who are too weak to seek it" Lord Voldemort |
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#15 | |||
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Council Member
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: On the Lunatic Fringe
Posts: 1,114
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Vir prudens non contra ventum mingit The greatest educational dogma is also its greatest fallacy: the belief that what must be learned can necessarily be taught. — Sydney J. Harris |
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#16 | ||
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Council Member
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Boston, MA
Posts: 409
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I am certainly not an Ayn Rand fan, at least not of the "Virtue of Selfishness" stripe. I am more along the lines of Hume in that I base my ideas on observations of human nature (psychology and sociology).
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"I can change almost anything ... but I can't change human nature." Jon Osterman/Dr. Manhattan --- A plan without action is a Daydream, Action without a plan is a Nightmare. Chinese Proverb --- "There is no Good and Evil, there is only Power, and those who are too weak to seek it" Lord Voldemort Last edited by TheCurmudgeon; 03-02-2012 at 12:02 PM. |
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