The US & others working with Pakistan

[carl]

Omar:

That isn't a confusing paragraph.

You know better than me but these are some guesses as to some of the points you raised.

The military/feudal elites of Pakistan will contest Talibanization of the country, mainly because they would lose too much money and influence. That will open the way for a fight.

Said elites will not ask India for help. Emotional reasons mainly but if they did, that would be a tacit admission that Pakistan isn't really a country, but a very unruly child that must inevitably come back to mother.

If India were to chose this course, and it worked, they could bleed the Pak Army/ISI forever. Even if the impossible happened and Pakistan asked India to save it, India could. All these fabled Afghan fighters have only managed success in the last 40 years when they have had substantial outside assistance. They can't manage on their own. If India sponsored Taliban bleeding of Pakistan, then withdrew that sponsorship, Taliban is done.

Pretty calculating stuff but big boys rules rule.

Of course all these things are the best that could happen. The worst that could happen is the nukes start flying and 3% to 4% of the worlds population dies suddenly.

You are right, what on earth are those genii in Pindi thinking?

[omarali50]

For some reason, this video came to mind: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqV_ExWj-bw
Jump to 3-30 seconds mark if you are impatient like me.

[carl]

Omar:

That is how you and me see it.

The general sahibs at GHQ probably feel more like this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0GFRcFm-aY&ob=av3e

[omarali50]

comment and link at http://www.brownpundits.com/?p=10

[Ray]

Attack on the drones


PAKISTAN yesterday warned Britain to help stop the American "Drone Wars" that are slaughtering hundreds of its innocent civilians.

Pakistan's High Commissioner to Britain Wajid Shamsul Hasan told The Sun in an exclusive interview that his country's relations with America are at their lowest ebb. ....

But he urged PM David Cameron to condemn US drone attacks on al-Qaeda and Taliban training camps in the north west of his country — dubbing them as "war crimes" and "little more than state executions".

Tough-talking Mr Hasan also declared Pakistan would have no choice but to support Iran if "aggressive" Israel attacks it.

But his immediate concern is the drones known to have killed 535 civilians, including 60 children, in three years.

Pakistan claims the real death toll is more than 1,000. The unmanned aircraft blast missiles at targets, directed by a computer thousands of miles away. ...

"They will have to at some stage take punitive actions to stop them. They have got means to take such actions to defend their own frontier and territories. ..

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage...e-attacks.html

It appears:

1. Pakistan is livid at the killings of innocents through the Drone attacks as per their perceptions.

2. Pakistan will support Iran.

3. Pakistan wants Mr Cameron to intercede in these "war crimes" and "little more than state executions".

4. There will be punitive actions by Pakistan to stop these drone attacks.

What exactly can be the solution to ensure that the US' aim is achieved and yet, at the same time, Pakistan can calm their agitated people?

[davidbfpo]

What a diplomatic triumph for the Pakistani diplomat in the UK! Regardless of what he actually says The Sun's website does not even show the story on the home page. There are an amazing variety of other news worthy stories and photos. So his interview is IMO "shooting himself in the foot".

I have listened to him before, in person and on TV. He is full of bluster and rarely advances his nation's cause - leaving aside which part of the nation he represents. For his background as a journalist:http://www.app.com.pk/en_/index.php?...42711&Itemid=2

[omarali50]

LOL. The army and the PPP must have made a deal to get Wajid Shamsulhassan (who was reputedly one of Benazir's bagmen and knows where the cash is buried) to go off in this manner. Lack of media coverage in the West may actually be a desired objective in this case. From Wajid's POV the ideal situation is this:
1. He says whatever GHQ or PPP or both wants said.
2. There is suitable coverage in the Urdu press back home. But if the aim is to convince people in Pakistan (already primed by military-mullah alliance propaganda to blame the US for everything) that the PPP regime is not a bunch of CIA agents I dont think this will work because nobody believes they are really opposed to drone strikes (at least not for the reasons given). If the aim is to show loyalty to GHQ that wont help either, because no matter how many pro-army statements the PPP issues, it will still be mistrusted. If the aim is to raise the price of cooperation and get more money...well, that may work.
3. No big coverage in the Western media. They are not the target audience.

I have no idea what the plan is supposed to be. Maybe there is some real plan, maybe its just whatever the psyops geniuses thought they should do today. But someday the US may give up on whatever mysterious plan the US has in the region and what will happen then? Is there a plan for the day after in pakistan?
No one (not the US, not the Pakistani public, not even Tariq Ali except when it suits his political agenda) cares too much about civilian casualties, but if you think a third world army or corrupt third world elite cares more about civilian casualties than the evil CIA then I may have a bridge to sell you.

[Ray]

I was reading a book, 'The Wandering Falcon' by Jamil Ahmad, a Pak Civil Service officer who spent his time in the Frontier and Balochistan.

It does give an insight into the lives of the people out there and there concept of life, seasonal migration, the conflict between there traditional ways with real life and the total conflict between the two!

Somehow, it did help to understand (hopefully) a bit of what is the psyche that works out there.

[VCheng]

Originally Posted by Ray

It appears:

1. Pakistan is livid at the killings of innocents through the Drone attacks as per their perceptions.

2. Pakistan will support Iran.

3. Pakistan wants Mr Cameron to intercede in these "war crimes" and "little more than state executions".

4. There will be punitive actions by Pakistan to stop these drone attacks.

What exactly can be the solution to ensure that the US' aim is achieved and yet, at the same time, Pakistan can calm their agitated people?

Much of the agitation is for domestic consumption only, to keep the faithful in line so that the Army is continued to be seen as the strong defenders of the Islamic Republic, when the reality is not all that robust.

[jmm99]

Hi Ray et al.:

Thanks to our favorite Brigadier (albeit you're the only one here ) for the drone post re: Pakistan attempting to influencing the UK. Other factors (to the same effect as the Pakistani claims) are at work in the UK, as well as here in the US.

The Bureau of Investigative Journalism has been pounding the drones - as its front page today shows. The TBIJ (About the Bureau) is:

The Bureau of Investigative Journalism is a not-for-profit organisation based at City University, London, that bolsters original journalism by producing high-quality investigations for press and broadcast media.

The first of its kind in the UK, it was established in April 2010 with a £2 million donation from The David & Elaine Potter Foundation. ...

The TBIJ and the Obama Administration are engaged (verbally, of course).

Also engaged verbally with the Obama Administration on the same topic is Philip Alston (from this side of the pond), former UN Special Rapporteur on extrajudicial, summary, or arbitrary executions. He has published a long article (164 pages), The CIA and Targeted Killings Beyond Borders, in the Harvard National Security Journal.

What effect all of this will have on the UK is not my department.

Its effect on the US (except for those like Alston who are already anti-drone) is likely to be minimal. Current US polls are running 80%+ in favor of President Obama's drone policy.

Regards

Mike

[omarali50]

Pakistan is, among other things, the hunting ground of the Ummah (or at least, of the stupidly rich segment of the Ummah who can afford private airstrips and hunting palaces in Pakistan, wildlife conservation be damned).
Occasionally, we try to even the score by hunting the hunters. IN this case, we got really lucky: http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2012...ted-in-turbat/
60 million rupees may be peanuts for the petroleum minister of Qatar (a country that just paid 250 million dollars or some such for a painting by Van Gogh) but its going to make some poor Baloch or FC soldiers really happy. Unless they get caught, in which case ISI will probably cut off their balls and present them to the minister from Qatar.

[davidbfpo]

I too have heard of similar 'hunting' trips and having checked the exchange rate Rs.60m in US$ is 661k. That seems a lot of cash to carry for paying off all the expenses of the trip. Or is it an opportunity to make a donation to a cause some of those in the Gulf are reported as being sympathetic with?

[omarali50]

Qatar's causes tend to be "pro-western", so I dont think its that (unless, of course, there is a "Western" cause to which he was contributing, but then why not just quietly hand over the cash at the door of his lavish palace/rest-house?).
I was told by a friend in the civil service that large amounts of cash are standard with these people. They pay everyone in cash, they throw cash at the high-end prostitutes they bring in to dance at the rest-house, they tip lavishly...still, it does seem like a lot, so who knows. Maybe it was meant for some anti-Iranian group? and maybe this is not a way to hand it over, this is someone in the opposition (the jihadi faction of the ISI?) getting wind of it and arranging for the donation to be rerouted.
Who knows.
or rather, whoever knows isnt likely to tell.
But my default assumption is robbery and a prince who was carrying way too much cash.

[VCheng]

Don't these levels of guests have appropriate levels of both imported personal and locally provided security? I would not put some inside information leakage beyond the realm of possibility here.

[omarali50]

Brigadier (retd) Shaukat Qadir provides what is probably the official "good ISI' Version: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories...MPLATE=DEFAULT

[JMA]

And the Pakistanis try to keep all their options open...

Pakistan President Zardari visits India for talks

[Ray]

The Pakistan President and the Pakistan Govt is sinecure and redundant to policy making.

It is the Army that calls the shot.

As many of you would be aware that the Indian Govt shot down the Army Chief's contention over his age wherein he would have continued longer in office.

Thus there is a joke doing the rounds in India.

"The Govt decides the age of the Army Chief in India,

But the Army decides the age of the Govt in Pakistan!"

[davidbfpo]

The regular writer on these issues Ahmed Rashid is back on tour - in the UK - for his new book and it maybe of note to view a few reviews.

Introductory remarks from one critical review:

A sequel to his four earlier books on the subject since mid-90s, especially Descent into Chaos (2008), the study underlines the precariousness of the Pakistani state’s chances for survival and the urgent need for policy resolutions. It also explains the causes of the recent deterioration in US-Pakistan relations and how they can be rectified; pinpoints factors responsible for the failure of the Obama Administration’s approach towards Pakistan and the Afghan war; and suggests ways to stabilise Pakistan and achieve a lasting peace in Afghanistan, amid the withdrawal of US and NATO troops from the war-torn country by 2014.

For more:http://politicsinspires.org/2012/04/...n-the-brink-2/

Peter Oborne writes:

Instead of writing very good books, he now writes very bad ones...Rashid has ceased to be a subversive reporter and instead has swallowed almost entire the conventional categorisation of the war on terror...Yet there is much of value in this book, which chronicles the collapse of relations between Pakistan and the United States over recent years. India, in a reverse of the Cold War system, has become the main regional ally of the United States.

Link:http://www.spectator.co.uk/books/777...erritory.thtml

On Amazon.com there are supportive reviews:http://www.amazon.com/Pakistan-Brink...DateDescending

[omarali50]

Farhat Taj on the history of Talibanization of the tribal areas, shatters some myths: http://www.thefridaytimes.com/beta3/...0120420&page=6

[omarali50]

my article at 3QD: http://www.3quarksdaily.com/3quarksd...-ali.html#more