Chowing,

You don't really expect him to say he isn't winning the War!

Unlike the US, Nigeria is a divided nation and sometimes "he may be an SOB, but at least he is our SOB" takes precedence over competence. Jonathan isn't really very competent but he is just as incompetent as the typical SOB the Northern Muslims tend to throw out to Abuja (Abacha, Babangida, Yar'adua, Atiku etc).

So the Southern Christian population is going to support their man, regardless. And that leaves the Northern 1/3rd of Nigeria sulking.

Secondly, a not too insignificant proportion of Nigeria's population believe that Boko Haram is an attempt by the North to shake up Jonathan pretty badly - so there is some sympathy for him.

Thirdly, Jonathan is actually quite media/technology savvy and he seems to be better at connecting with younger voters (at least in the South and Middle Belt), than most other Nigerian politicians. He has a good feedback mechanism and can change his message appropriately. This is his facebook page: http://www.facebook.com/#!/jonathangoodluck