Did you guys see where the Russians are now sending troops to Syria?
http://grognews.blogspot.com/2012/03...-to-syria.html
Did you guys see where the Russians are now sending troops to Syria?
http://grognews.blogspot.com/2012/03...-to-syria.html
Brant
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“their citizens (all of them counted as such) glorified their mythology of ‘rights’… and lost track of their duties. No nation, so constituted, can endure.” Robert Heinlein, Starship Troopers 1959
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It looks like it is a tiny protection detail for the tanker. To me it signals that the Russians don't feel entirely safe in Tartous (which may be sensible, given that the FSA has started attacks against some military facilities, sabotage, "sniping" with AT-13s and AT-14s, etc).
They mostly come at night. Mostly.
- university webpage: McGill University
- conflict simulations webpage: PaxSims
the rebellion goes on, for longer than a year now and linked is the latest IISS commentary by their Middle East (Syria) expert following the Istanbul Conference:http://iissvoicesblog.wordpress.com/...till-hesitant/
Some acute phrasing:Feeding the narrative of Assad’s impending doom (in effect, winning the propaganda war) would do more to encourage defections.
davidbfpo
So, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are all providing money to "pay the salaries of Sunni freedom fighters" ( translation, "hire mercenaries") to help overthrow the minority Alawite (Shia related) Assad regime.
I think Assad is responding completely inappropriately to these revolts, and should be seeking to bring community leaders to the table, listen to the reasonable concerns of the people and implement a true program of governmental reform.
But these Sunni leaders don't likely want to see better governance in Syria any more than they wanted to see better governance in Iraq. Bad for the business of autocratic rule in their own countries. This appears to be an effort to use this opportunity to expand Sunni rule in the region and to elevate some peer in their own image. We should not look at this as a good thing. It is just a different bad thing.
Robert C. Jones
Intellectus Supra Scientia
(Understanding is more important than Knowledge)
"The modern COIN mindset is when one arrogantly goes to some foreign land and attempts to make those who live there a lesser version of one's self. The FID mindset is when one humbly goes to some foreign land and seeks first to understand, and then to help in some small way for those who live there to be the best version of their own self." Colonel Robert C. Jones, US Army Special Forces (Retired)
That might have been a reasonable prescription at the start of the affair, but it's way beyond that point now, and the last thing the US should be doing is proposing a solution that would leave Assad in power... or for that matter proposing any solution at all, since there's no point in making proposals you aren't willing to stand behind.
A good thing or a bad thing for who? For us it needn't be good or bad, as it's really not our business... neither is it our business to be telling others what we think is good or bad for them.
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”
H.L. Mencken
It probably has less to do with religion than with authoritarian regimes wanting to buy their way into the good graces of the rebels in Syria. The writing is on the wall. Assad will fall at some point. All three of those states would very much like to contain the Arab Spring in Syria lest it spread to their states.
Way too late for that now. Even if Assad were to make a legitimate attempt to reform, the leaders of the uprising will assume that he is doing it because he is weakening. They will smell blood in the water and redouble their efforts. The best outcome that Assad can probably hope for now is a negotiated exit for him and protection for the minority groups in Syria that supported him. Even that is iffy.
“Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life.”
Terry Pratchett
Assad's staying power is under-estimated. Sure, the West (generally) wants to see him go and his rivals in the Arab community are doing their part to help him make that transition. However, the Syrian state is constructed more similarly to the Egyptian model than the Libyan model; with the military playing a prominent and central role in state formation and stability. And while the Syrian military has suffered from a number of high profile defections, it by and large remains on the side of their governmeent (unlike the large Egyptian military and the small, decentralized Libyan military). The Syrian Army remained loyal to the regime in the past, and I don't see how this situation is any different for them. Without external intervention (whether attacking the regime directly, sustaining the rebelling forces, or enticing the military to defect), the best the uprising can hope for is a negotiated settlement.
When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot
Granted, the military is more loyal to Assad than it has been in other Arab states but that will likely delay the overthrow of the Assad regime but not prevent it. To begin with, Syria is not a petro-state. Assad does not have much to offer in the way of assets to potential supporters. Russia and China are not interested in the political cost of supporting Assad. Iran does not have unlimited resources to prop up Assad. Iraq will likely tread carefully in how they support him. Sanctions seem to be having an effect, probably because of the world wide attention on this has caused whatever limited support Assad had to begin with to be reduced.
Probably the most significant factor is the fact that the Arab Spring has given the rebels hope that they can force a change. That has not existed before.
“Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life.”
Terry Pratchett
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