Joint India Indonesian Army Exercise Garud Shakti Concludes.

[Ray]

Is concern a function of ethnicity or a function of assessment of threat relative to other concerns? I doubt there's a uniform level of concern even among Indians... some would be very concerned, some unconcerned, and a wide spectrum in between.

Indeed there are many strata in society. Joe the Plumber or even Sarah Palin would not understand Foreign Policy as would Hilary Clinton, Obama or John McCain.

But I am sure that even Joe the Plumber, because of the media would know how horrid USSR was, even if it was not true and instead propaganda and media hype!

Speaking of "the Filipinos" is too simplistic to be relevant. "The Filipinos" didn't throw the US out, the faction that opposed the presence of large permanent facilities gained ascendency over the faction that supported that presence. There's still a general consensus that large permanent facilities are not wanted. US troops have been on Philippine soil on a rotational basis for over a decade, since well before the current round of the China flap started... nothing at all new about that and no reason to say Filipinos are suddenly "eating crow" over it.

It the Filipinos did not throw out the US from Subic Bay, the US left like purring cats totally delighted? If a faction that grew in ascendancy that wanted the US out, was that faction a minority view?

It is good to justify issues, but then one cannot just squeeze as the Gospel with a shoe horn in a tight shoe!

If the US was asked to leave, it was majority view. They are still opposed to the US return, but the Govt and others realise their is no way out. So, that is eating crow.

No other nation, except Japan, S Korea and now Australia are basing US troops even though they are on board with the US strategic thinking!!

Any reason why?

It's worth remembering that Clark Air Base was not closed by Filipinos, but by geology: the Pinatubo eruption forced the abandonment of the base. It was actually kind of amusing: for years the US had been saying that a phaseout would take a decade, when the planet decided to pop a zit the Air Force was gone in 3 days. The negotiations over Subic ended when the Philippine government demanded a price higher than the US was willing to pay: without Clark and without the Cold War the value of the place had dropped significantly. It wasn't quite that they "they threw the US out without any hesitation", more that they overrated their negotiating position.

Nothing is amusing.

Cold war maybe out.

The real threat of China is in!

Nobody has floated the idea of rotating 4k Marines through here locally, and I don't bet anyone wants to try: it would be a very difficult topic politically. The idea of putting them in forward bases in Sulu and Zamboanga seems most unlikely to me. Certainly there's been no local discussion of any such thing, and I doubt the US would even want to do it. Messy idea.

So, what is happening?

No US troops around?

They might do it as a trade to get something they want from the US. If the US wants to move some troops here and the Philippine government thinks it can get some hardware, aid, or other concessions, they'll make a deal, to the limited extent that local politics will let them get away with it. Less about defending them from China than about seizing an opportunity to make some advantageous deals.

You think that the Filipinos are daft.

They allow US troops on their land for hardware and not for protection against China?

Almost nobody thinks that China would invade under any circumstances. What's expected is more pushing and shoving over fishing territories, and (much more hypothetically) occasional pushing and shoving over resource related exploration/production. It's already pretty well established that the US is not going to defend Filipino fishing fleets or offshore claims, so there's really not much to be gained beyond negotiating leverage with all parties concerned.

Nation don't work just to get cracking when they are attacked.

They cater for what is known as 'threat in being'.

There's a stage of war where the American popular response is "we must rally together and stick behind the leader". At a later stage this becomes "this is stupid and pointless, throw the bastard out".

Are you saying that Americans are fickle and totally idiotic?

Filipinos think all kinds of ways, so do Anglo-Saxons and Hans. That has less to do with some genetically enforced mode of thought than by the backgrounds of the individuals involved. An urban Filipino businessman or professional thinks very much like an urban American businessman or professional; they have more in common than either would have with a farmer from their own country. There is no such thing as "how Filipinos think", they think all kinds of ways. True of most people once you look beyond stereotypes. It would be silly for anyone, even a Filipino, to claim to know "how Filipinos think". I have a fairly good grasp of the spectrum of opinion here and the current state of balance/imbalance among various points on that spectrum.

If that is so, how come the Japanese business man does not think like anyone else but a Japanese?

Diplomatic dialogues aren't necessary because different cultures have inherently different thought processes, they're necessary because people in different places have divergent interests.

So, what do you feel is the reason there is these dialogues when it is useless?

Wasn't meant to shake the earth, only to point out that the rise of China is a quite minor consideration to most Filipinos.

Excellent!

Minor in that China claims its territory and fishing rights!

Again, I see no special evidence that any of what's happening is driven by US strategy. I see nations responding to a situation in ways that suit their own perceived interests. The Philippine government is using the US concern with China to try and move up the US military aid totem pole.

So, the truth surface inspite of your playing ping pong.

The bold part says it all!

The only country in SE Asia that's developing a serious military response to a perceived Chinese threat is Vietnam. That's predictable, and it's not driven by anything the US wants or does. The Vietnamese have a history with China, geographic proximity, a land border, and a long China Sea coastline. There's been a lot of attention paid to occasional military exercises with the US, but the Vietnamese are by no means settling into a US camp. Their arms purchases, notably anti-ship missiles, are generally from Russia. There's also a good deal of cooperation with India: Vietnam is negotiating to buy cruise missiles that are made in India (joint venture with Russians), and I've heard they'll be working with India for training crews for the 6 Kilo-class subs they're buying; there's also talk of energy deals with Indian companies.

The Vietnamese are actually being quite clever about it, as one might expect: they've no shortage of experience in conflict with much larger powers. They aren't setting up to fight the Chinese Navy, but they are laying out an asymmetric strategy to convince the Chinese that the cost of conflict would exceed the gain. None of this is driven by US strategy, it's the Vietnamese government responding to a perceived threat in the way they think will be most effective. Part of that response is closer relations with the US, but that's not the only part.

You are seeing the trailer.

Wait for the actual movie.

OPEC was broken up (to the extent that it has been) by the 90s oil glut, not by the US.

Why don't you google?

Don't take my word for it!

I wish I could attribute the Arab Spring, the fall of Gaddafi, etc to US initiation, but I really can't: American politicians are neither that smart nor that competent, and they don't look that far ahead. Things happen, the US responds, usually clumsily.

If you can't attribute it to the US, do let us know how it is happening like a Domino effect?

The Muslims have suddenly seen light?