Quote Originally Posted by Bob's World View Post
Agree completely that AQ is not an insurgency. AQ conducts UW though, which is the leveraging of other people's insurgencies. Also agree that we cannot "fix" foreign governments and that increasing our presence in the region serves primarily to increase the credibility of those who attempt to convince Muslims that the problems of the Middle East cannot be resolved until our presence is completely removed from the region.
Generally agreed, though I'd point out that AQ's attempts to leverage insurgency against established governments (as opposed to pseudo-governments installed by foreign powers) have been generally unsuccessful. What AQ has leveraged successfully is resentment toward foreign military intervention in Muslim lands.

Quote Originally Posted by Bob's World View Post
Better we conduct our own UW to out-compete AQ for influence with these populaces and work to help them find more peaceful ways to elevate their grievances.
This is the part where I start getting nervous. I don not like the idea of the US trying to "compete for influence" in environments where our understanding is incomplete or minimal and our efforts to compete for influence are likely to be construed as self-interested meddling, a perception that directly reinforces the AQ narrative. Once we decide to "compete for influence" it's terribly easy for us to try to give people what we think they ought to want instead of working with the many different things they actually do want; it easily becomes an umbrella under which we can pursue intrusive and counterproductive policies. Sometimes the best way for us to undermine the AQ narrative is to step back and leave things alone.

We must always remember that the antidote to bad meddling is not good meddling, it's less meddling. Trying to step in and adjust relations between governments and governed in other countries is not likely to get us anyone's affection and can create a lot of trouble and ill will.

Quote Originally Posted by Bob's World View Post
We can't fix these governments, but we should not help them avoid having to fix themselves either. We need to put a finer point on how we think about these threats and look at a significant refresh in terms of how we approach them. Much of this is more diplomacy work than military work.
Where are we actually allowing governments to avoid having to fix themselves? That seems to me to somewhat overrate the extent and effectiveness of our efforts.

Sometimes it's less about military or diplomatic engagement than it is about stepping back, letting nature run its course, and recognizing that it isn't always about us.